In my opinion Greuther Furth have really good chances to avoid big loss in today's match up and +1.5 AH looks like very safe bet here.

Of course, guests started new season in poor style. They have only one point after 6 rounds, but they are newcomers and always is process to find the rhythm on the higher level. It's their first season in Bundesliga since 2012/2013. I already saw big improvement in their last match against the strongest team in whole league. In last round they lost 1:3 against Bayern at home, but they deserved for better result. Expected goals scored for Furth 0.76, for Bayern 0.69! This is a story of Furth in current season, they conceded many unexpected goals. They conceded 16 goals so far, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 11.2. It's the biggest difference from all Bundesliga teams.

Of course, Koln have really good start on the paper, but I'm not so impressed. They have only 2 wins so far. If You look at some stats they are not much better than Furth. Shots on target per game? Koln 4.0 , Furth 3.8. Accurate passes per game? 319, Furth 258. They are not perfect in defense as well because conceded at least one goal in all matches so far.

Trends are against Koln here-they won only 4 of last 16 matches against new promoted teams. Koln won only 2 of last 11 Bundesliga matches in Friday. Furth lost last 4 matches in a row in all competitions, but they didn't lost 5 times since 1999.

Furth have all required tools to cover +1.5 HC. This line is simply too good.