Manchester United welcome visitors from Spain for this UEFA Champions League group stage round 2 clash at Old Trafford. This is a rematch from the 26th of May  - the teams played in the Europa League final at Stadion Gdańsk in Poland. It was a relatively balanced match - Man United created more in expected goals though. The score after was 1-1 after 90 minutes of play and the winner was not decided in the 30 minutes of extra match either. In the penalty shootout that followed Villareal were better and took the the trophy. Manchester United will surely be eager to get a revenge tonight at their home stadium. However, I believe this won't be easy at all. Let's take a closer look..

Yes, we all know the hosts have got C. Ronaldo back after eleven years. He is still in an amazing striker and in stunning physical condition. However, I believe bettors give too much emphasis to his return, which has resulted in - and probably will do so in the future too, in over-valuation (too low odds). Man United's biggest problem in my opinion is their manager, Norwegian Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. He is a club legend who played a great career but as a manager he is very inexperienced. Before taking over Man United he coached a lot smaller team, Molde,  in his home country. He lacks tactical understanding and has been unable to create a clear system for his team, which of course is World-class on paper. There have been some rumors about his personality too - he might not have the charisma to lead super stars like Ronaldo or  his countryman, the stunningly talented Bruno Fernandes. One example of his lack of in-play understand was last Saturday when, in the second half, his team struggled to create quality scoring chances. He replaced Scott McTominay with Edinson Cavani, an aged guy, who is a pure striker - past his prime and not great at creating scoring chances against a well organised-defense.. He had young -  and most of all very fast Lingard and Sancho on the bench who would have been much better suited for breaking Aston Villa's defense.. Yet another rookie mistake by Ole Gunnar! In the end Man United suffered a humiliating 0-1 loss at home. I would not be at all surprised if the Norwegian got sacked before the season ends!

Man United have got decent results in the English Premier League, but have not faced any top teams. Let's not remember they have failed to beat a pretty mediocre team, Southampton. It was a 1-1 draw, Man United did create more in expected goals but were inefficient in offense. We must, however, realize that they have been extremely lucky in two victorious winning matches. Some weeks ago they beat a mediocre team Wolverhampton 1-0 away from home through a late goal. The score does not reflect the events on the pitch at all! Wolves dominated the first half and could easily have taken a 2-0 - or even 3-0, but were unlucky and a little careless too. The expected goals ratio was 1.90 for the host and 0.80 for Man United - a very low number for one of the giants of World soccer. They did beat the third worst team in the league, Newcastle 4-1 at home in Ronaldo's opening match. I would not get to excited about this as Newcastle's defense is a mess and the hosts did not create more than 2.70 in expected goals. On the 19th of September they narrowly beat West Ham, a mediocre team 2-1 away from home but were not the better team - expected goals ratio was very balanced. Man United's midfield is not in balance - and has not been for a long time. Of course their super stars can win them a lot of matches but I do not see them having any chance of winning the Premier League - probably they will not be making it even to top-3 as City, Chelsea and Liverpool are a clearly better teams and have world-class managers. My disbelief in the "Red Devils" applies to Champions League too. They lost the opening game to a mediocre team, Swiss Young Boys 0-1. They played pretty bad even before receiving a red card.. PSG, B. Munchen, Man City etc. seriously good teams will crush Man United in the play offs - if the Red Devils even make it that far..

How about Villareal then? They have not been at their best so far this season but can surely improve! They have struggled with scoring in many matches and played many draws. However, their defense has looked pretty solid for the most of the time and I believe they will take a very defensive approach at Old Trafford today. Goal expectancy for the match is pretty low and I think Villareal would be pretty happy with a draw. They are a very well-organized team and will surely try to frustrate the hosts today!

To sum up, the hosts are of course the better team by raw class and go into the match as clear favorites. However, Villareal have an excellent chance of covering the +1.5 goals handicap. I would not be shocked even if they were to take all three points!