Spartak Moscow vs Legia Warszawa

Spartak Moscow welcome visitors from Poland for at the Otkrytiye Arena for this Europa League group stage opener. I have not been at all impressed by Legia's performance in Europe so far and see the Russians as clear favorites at home. Legia have very passionate at home and have done well, especially in the past at their stadium in the past but in big matches like this one they usually struggle away from home. Once again I want to highlight the meaning of substantial home advantage. Let's take a closer look..

This pick is mainly based on the idea that Legia are substantially over-rated! Their level has been in decline in recent years and they are not nearly as good as say five years ago. I think they are getting too much respect on the betting market thanks to their historical performances in Europe. I have followed them closely in European club competition matches and seen most of their matches in Polish Extraklasa where they are currently in the 16th place - two wins and three losses and only four goals scored in five matches! Very disappointing! We must also remember that this League is not very high-level by European standards and winning it - as Legia did last season- is not a spectacular achievement. The Russian Premier League is much more competitive. Legia are most certainly not in good form having lost 0-1 both of their most recent matches in Extraklasa. Their offensive play has been very poor indeed and I'm not convinced by their defense either. They certainly can improve but will it happen today and will it be enough against a strong opponent away from home - I have my doubts.. I see Spartak Moscow as close to 60% favorites to win here.

I fully realized how lame Legia are at this level some two years ago when they played against a Finnish team KuPS from Kuopio in Europa League second qualifying round and did win 2-0 on aggregate but the difference compared to KuPS on the pitch was surprisingly not huge. As a Finn myself I know KuPS very well and have written many analyses about their matches. In all fairness, they are a limited team by European standards and not even the best team in Finland.. This season Legia started their European campaign against Norwegian Bodo/Glmit and both matches were pretty equal in terms of expected goals but Legia did qualify for the next round of Champion League qualification. I want to remind my fans that the Norwegian team is not a big team by European standards and Legia should have been clearly the better team in this match up. After this they faced a good team, Croatian Dinamo Zagreb and failed to win either of the two matches. They played a little better than in the previous round but still not very well. The next opponent was Slavia Prague and they were very lucky to beat the Czechs on aggregate as they were not the better team based on events on the pitch. Especially in the first leg in Prague they would not have deserved anything - the hosts had 65% ball possession and scoring attempts were 17-3 for the hosts but somehow Legia took a 2-2 draw! However, we all know this can happen in football.. In the second leg they did play better though and won.

Spartak Moscow have not been in excellent form either lately but losing to a very strong opponent Portuguese Benfica in the Champions League qualification was not a surprise, and I they did not play badly after all. They just faced a too good team. I think that perhaps the pretty clear losses to Benfica affect the odds on this market too much - Legia are not even close to Benfica's level. In the Russian Premier League Spartak have been slightly inconsistent but have played relatively well as a whole. With even a little bit of luck they would have many more points. In their most recent match they comfortably defeated Khimki 3-1 at home - hopefully getting a confidence boost going into this important match. We must remember Spartak Moscow are a much bigger team than Legia in terms of financial resources and have great home fans to support them today so I believe they can improve from previous matches - the potential is surely there! Let's take a look at those numbers: According to the respected and well-known German website Transfermarkt.com Spartak Moscow's players have a total market value of some 125 million euros whereas Legia's players are valued at about 26 million euros. I would in fact estimate Spartak's team is even more valuable than the 125 million.. While the total market of a team's players does not fully reflect the overall class of a team as older but still very good players, like Ballon d'Or winner Lionel Messi or the Italian legend and fresh European Champion Chiellini, are less valuable than their true current value on the pitch. On the other hand, young promising future star players like Manchester United's Jadon Sancho, 21 have a higher market value than their current level in action would indicate. However, a team's players' total market value still does give us a good picture on how good the team really is.

To sum up, the hosts -0.5 goals handicap is my pick for my growing fan-base.

本译文使用谷歌机器翻译，仅供参考：

莫斯科斯巴达队在 Otkrytiye 竞技场迎战来自波兰的华沙军团参加欧罗巴联赛小组赛的揭幕战。到目前为止，我对莱吉亚在欧洲的表现并没有留下深刻的印象，俄罗斯人显然是主场的最爱。莱吉亚在主场非常热情，表现也很好，尤其是过去在他们的体育场，但在像这样的大型比赛中，他们通常在客场挣扎。我想再次强调实质性主场优势的含义。让我们仔细看看..

这个选择主要是基于 Legia 被大大高估的想法！近年来，他们的水平一直在下降，远不如五年前所说的那么好。我认为由于他们在欧洲的历史表现，他们在博彩市场上获得了太多的尊重。我在欧洲俱乐部的比赛中密切关注他们，并在波兰的 Extraklasa 观看了他们的大部分比赛，他们目前排名第 16 位 - 两胜三负，五场比赛只打进四球！非常失望！我们还必须记住，按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平并不是很高，赢得它——就像上赛季莱吉亚所做的那样——并不是一项了不起的成就。俄罗斯超级联赛的竞争要激烈得多。 Legia 的状态肯定不是很好，他们最近在 Extraklasa 的两场比赛都以 0-1 输掉了比赛。他们的进攻表现确实很差，我也不相信他们的防守。他们当然可以改进，但它会在今天发生吗，并且在客场​​对抗一个强大的对手是否足够 - 我有我的怀疑..我认为莫斯科斯巴达有接近 60% 的夺冠热门。

大约两年前，当他们在欧联杯资格赛第二轮对阵来自 Kuopio 的芬兰球队 KuPS 时，我完全意识到 Legia 在这个水平上是多么蹩脚，并且确实以总比分 2-0 获胜，但与球场上的 KuPS 相比，差异令人惊讶的是不是巨大的。作为芬兰人，我非常了解 KuPS，并且写了很多关于他们比赛的分析。平心而论，按照欧洲的标准，他们是一支有限的球队，甚至不是芬兰最好的球队。 本赛季莱吉亚开始了他们对挪威博多/格米特的欧洲战役，两场比赛的预期进球数相当，但莱吉亚确实有资格参加下一轮欧冠资格。我想提醒我的球迷，按照欧洲的标准，挪威队并不是一支大球队，而莱吉亚显然应该是这场比赛中更好的球队。在此之后，他们遇到了一支优秀的球队克罗地亚萨格勒布迪纳摩，但两场比赛都没有获胜。他们打得比上一轮好一些，但仍然不是很好。下一个对手是布拉格斯拉维亚，他们很幸运能够在总分上击败捷克队，因为根据球场上的事件，他们并不是更好的球队。尤其是在布拉格的首回合比赛中，他们不配得到任何东西——东道主拥有 65% 的控球率，主队的得分尝试为 17-3，但不知何故莱吉亚以 2-2 战平！然而，我们都知道这可能发生在足球比赛中。但在第二回合他们确实打得更好并赢了。

莫斯科斯巴达最近的状态也不是很好，但是在欧冠资格赛中输给了非常强大的对手葡萄牙本菲卡并不令人意外，毕竟他们的表现并不差。他们只是面对一支太优秀的球队。我认为本菲卡的明显失利对这个市场的赔率影响太大了——莱吉亚甚至不接近本菲卡的水平。在俄罗斯超级联赛中，斯巴达克的表现有些不稳定，但整体上表现相对较好。即使有一点运气，他们也会有更多的积分。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以 3-1 轻松击败了希姆基——希望在这场重要的比赛中能够增强信心。我们必须记住，莫斯科斯巴达在财政资源方面比 Legia 大得多，而且今天有很棒的主场球迷支持他们，所以我相信他们可以从之前的比赛中进步——潜力肯定存在！让我们来看看这些数字：根据著名的德国网站 Transfermarkt.com 的数据，莫斯科斯巴达的球员总市值约为 1.25 亿欧元，而莱吉亚的球员市值约为 2600 万欧元。我实际上估计斯巴达克的球队比1.25亿更有价值。 虽然球队球员的总市场并不能完全反映球队的整体水平，因为年龄较大但仍然是非常优秀的球员，比如金球奖得主莱昂内尔梅西或意大利传奇人物和新晋欧洲冠军基耶利尼，都没有他们目前在球场上的真实价值那么有价值。另一方面，像曼联队的桑乔这样年轻有前途的未来明星球员，21 岁，他们的市场价值比他们目前的行动水平所表明的要高。然而，一支球队球员的总市值仍然让我们很好地了解了球队的实力到底有多好。