French champions from last spring welcome visitors from Germany at Stade Pierre Mauroy for this Champions League group stage opener. This group is a very interesting one in terms of entertainment value and betting-wise as there are no super teams like PSG or Manchester City here - all teams have have a realistic chance of qualifying for the play offs and we can expect many pretty equal battles. There is no Messi or Neymar of course but all teams have top-class players whose performances we can enjoy on the pitch. Austrian Salzburg and Sevilla from Spain are two too other teams here. In my power ratings that reflect the teams' raw class Sevilla are the best of the four - followed by Wolfsburg and Lille. Salzburg are the weakest but surely not without a chance and they too will grab points in the six matches ahead for each team in the group stage. For this match I see - similarly to the betting market - the German visitors as the faves but in my papers they are even bigger favorites. Let's take a look..

Lille have been very disappointing so far this season in Ligue 1 and I have already lowered they power rating as a result of their lame performances. I doubt they will make even top-4 at the end of the season  - let alone claim the title again! They lost/sold some key players and their coach who went to work for Nice. It clearly takes time to re-organize the team and they way the want to play football and so far no new stars have emerged and the team spirit is clearly not at the same level as last season. We must also remember they are not traditional big football club with huge financial resources - even my Ligue 1 standards and certainly not by European standards. Last Friday they showed yet another disappointing performance against Lorient away from home losing 1-2. It was a pretty balanced match and Lille did in fact create a little more in expected goals - some 1.40 whereas Lorient's number was around 1.20 goals. Lille once again seemed too vulnerable in defense and lack creativity in offense. Lorient are a not a good team and according to the betting market Lille were some 46% favorites going into the match. They would have to improve quite a lot to beat the strong visitors here. However, I have of course watched all their matches this season and they do have some potential and I expect them to gradually improve but this match comes too soon I believe. Before the Lorient match they took their their only win so far in the League 1 beating a pretty average team Montpellier 2-1 as some 60% favorites winning the expected goals statistic 2.4 - 0.70 goals. They are just simply too inconsistent and and good performances are too rare and today I think they have only about 27% chance of winning.

Wolfsburg are always a top-4 contender in the German Bundesliga but never quite have enough quality to challenge the mighty Bayern Munich really. However, they are pretty solid performers and have played in the Champions League before. They finished fourth in the Bundesliga last season earning automatic qualification for Champions League. This season they have looked even better! Wolsburg have won all of their four matches so far and lead the Bundesliga. I rate them as the third best team in this very competitive league - after of course B. Munchen and Dortmund. Indeed, the overall level is significantly higher than that of Ligue 1. Wolsburg have allowed just one goal this season and scored six. They have, however, played just one top team so far - RB Leipzig but beat them 1-0 at home so basically they have started the the best way possible. They will surely be hungry for success in the Champions League too and with the solid defense they have shown against Lille's  pretty lame offensive players at least not losing today is a pretty probable scenario.

To sum up, the Germans go to this match as solid favorites and my pick is Wolfsburg +0.5 goals handicap.