Croatia vs Slovenia

Croatia welcome their neighbors Slovenia for this World Cup qualification match at Stadion Poljud in Split early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Stakes are very high as both teams - especially Croatia - have a good chance to qualify for the long disputed World Cup in Qatar next year. Russia lead the group with ten points, Croatia is second - also with ten points and Slovenia have scored seven points so far. I expect Croatia to topple Russia at the end and win the group. Here I see Croatia as a pretty clearly the better team by raw class and home advantage is also big. Also let's not forget their good performances last summer in the EURO 2020. They played one bad match in the tournament and that was versus the Czech Republic in the group stage, the score was, however, 1-1. They were also pretty mediocre versus England in the tournament opener losing 1-0 but creating very little offensively. England at home were of course expected to be strong though. As a result of the two first matches I made one of the few clear mistakes with my analysis/ probability estimation this year under-estimating them in the third match versus Scotland who had, of course, played a very good match versus England before facing Croatia grabbing a point in a scoreless battle. However, the betting market was also wrong, setting the Croats as only slim favorites at the time of kickoff. However, we could see that Croatia were clearly the better team and the Croats were not hindered by Scotland's fine 1-1 goal and enthusiastic home fans. They kept controlling the ball and mercilessly crushed hard-fighting Scots hopes advancing with a convincing 3-1 win allowing Scotland very few scoring chances. After that they faced one of the tournament favorites, and in my opinion the best team in the EURO 2020, Spain and put up a fierce fight versus favorites Spain with a stunning come back from 1-3 to 3-3 during the last ten minutes of the match proving that they are mentally very strong and most importantly how good they are capable of playing. Spain had more energy and simply too much class in the extra match though and qualified with a 5-3 win to face Italy and were beaten by them it in penalties as most of my fans probably remember but created a lot more goal expectancy in that match and controlled the ball for the most of the time. If the Croats can reach even close the level they showed versus Scotland and particularly versus Spain they have an excellent chance of beating Slovenia today. They have the better players overall and most of them play for clearly bigger clubs than the Slovenes.

Last week Croatia played two good matches. First they traveled to Russia and were the better team despite the 0-0 final score. Russian fans are very loud and doing well on Russian soil is never easy! Last Saturday the Croats grabbed all three points in Slovakia after a late 1-0 goal by Marcelo Brozovic. The hosts had their chances too but Croatia were the better team and especially during the first approximately twenty minutes controlled the match. Slovakia did pretty well in the EURO 2020 beating Poland 2-1 so the away win was a fine performance from the Croats. They were some 48% favorites to win according to the betting market though. Slovenia have faced Malta in their most recent match and I was not at all excited by their 1-0 win. Malta are a pretty lowly team and the Slovenians were massive favorites going into the match with odds around 1.25 to win. Yes, they deserved the win but the match was more balanced than expected. A similar performance would mean they will probably have to travel home empty-handed today. Before this they were clear favorites also at home versus Slovakia and again did not play very well.. The score was 1-1 after a balanced battle for the World Cup 2022 ticket. Slovenia also did not qualify for the EURO 2020, which had a record-high number of countries participating this time.. This tells quite a lot about Slovenia's level. Whilst I realize they can improve from the most recent matches they face a very tough challenge today and are over-rated by the betting market.

To sum up, Croatia are very clear favorites today. My pick is Croatia to win but I do not expect them to crush Slovenia as they sometimes have problems creating a big number of super dangerous scoring chances and Slovenes, I believe, are ready for a desperate defensive battle here.

北京时间周三凌晨，克罗地亚欢迎他们的邻国斯洛文尼亚参加在斯普利特斯普利特体育场举行的世界杯预选赛。赌注非常高，因为两支球队——尤其是克罗地亚队——都有很好的机会获得明年在卡塔尔举行的长期有争议的世界杯的参赛资格。俄罗斯以 10 分领先小组，克罗地亚排名第二 - 也是 10 分，斯洛文尼亚迄今已获得 7 分。我希望克罗地亚最终能击败俄罗斯并赢得小组赛冠军。在这里，我认为克罗地亚是一支非常明显的球队，在初级班上表现更好，主场优势也很大。也不要忘记他们去年夏天在 2020 年欧洲杯上的出色表现。他们在比赛中打了一场糟糕的比赛，那是小组赛对阵捷克，但比分是 1-1。他们在锦标赛揭幕战中对英格兰的表现也相当平庸，但以 1-0 输掉了比赛，但进攻端却很少。英格兰在主场当然会很强大。由于前两个比赛 我在今年的分析/概率估计中犯了为数不多的明显错误之一，在对阵苏格兰的第三场比赛中低估了他们，当然，在面对克罗地亚之前，他们在对阵英格兰的比赛中表现出色，在一场没有得分的战斗中抢到一分.然而，投注市场也是错误的，在开球时将克罗地亚人设置为唯一的热门。然而，我们可以看到克罗地亚队显然是更好的球队，克罗地亚人没有被苏格兰1-1的精彩进球和热情的主场球迷所阻碍。他们不断控制球，无情地粉碎了顽强拼搏的苏格兰人的希望，以令人信服的 3-1 获胜，让苏格兰队几乎没有得分机会。在那之后，他们面对了锦标赛的热门之一，在我看来是 2020 年欧洲杯最好的球队，西班牙，并与热门西班牙进行了激烈的战斗，在最后十分钟内从 1-3 逆转到 3-3比赛证明他们在精神上非常强大并且最重要的是他们能打得有多好。西班牙在额外的比赛中拥有更多的能量和太多的课堂，并且以 5-3 的比分战胜意大利，并在点球大战中被他们击败，因为我的大多数球迷可能还记得，但在那场比赛中创造了更多的进球预期并在大部分时间控制球。如果克罗地亚人能够达到他们在对阵苏格兰，尤其是对阵西班牙时表现出的水平，那么他们今天就有很大的机会击败斯洛文尼亚。他们总体上拥有更好的球员，而且他们中的大多数人都效力于比斯洛文尼亚人更大的俱乐部。

上周克罗地亚打了两场精彩的比赛。首先他们前往俄罗斯，尽管最终比分是 0-0，但他们还是更好的球队。俄罗斯球迷非常响亮，在俄罗斯土地上做得好从来都不是一件容易的事！上周六，克罗地亚人马塞洛·布罗佐维奇 (Marcelo Brozovic) 以 1-0 的比分进球，在斯洛伐克的比赛中全取三分。东道主也有机会，但克罗地亚是更好的球队，尤其是在最初的大约 20 分钟内控制了比赛。斯洛伐克在 2020 年欧洲杯上表现出色，以 2-1 击败波兰，因此客场胜利是克罗地亚人的出色表现。不过，根据博彩市场，他们有 48% 的人希望获胜。斯洛文尼亚在最近的一场比赛中对阵马耳他，我对他们 1-0 的胜利一点也不兴奋。马耳他是一支相当低级的球队，斯洛文尼亚人在比赛中是大热门，获胜赔率约为 1.25。是的，他们配得上这场胜利，但这场比赛比预期的更加平衡。类似的表现意味着他们今天可能不得不空手而归。在此之前，他们在主场对阵斯洛伐克的比赛中也是明显的热门，并且再次表现不佳。

在为 2022 年世界杯门票进行平衡战后，比分是 1-1。斯洛文尼亚也没有获得2020年欧洲杯的参赛资格，本届欧洲杯的参赛国家数量创历史新高。这足以说明斯洛文尼亚的水平。虽然我意识到他们可以从最近的比赛中进步，他们今天面临着非常严峻的挑战，并且被博彩市场高估了。 总而言之，克罗地亚是今天的热门球队。我的选择是克罗地亚获胜，但我不希望他们能击败斯洛文尼亚，因为他们有时会在创造大量超级危险的得分机会方面遇到问题，我相信斯洛文尼亚人已经准备好在这里进行一场绝望的防守大战。