for the past two weeks I have almost entirely lost picks. I do not worry about it too much as it is mostly variance, the knowledge and work has gone nowhere, but it also suggests that a short break would not be perhaps a bad idea? As the timing allows I will do so, and come back to business in a week or so, after I have analyzed and reviewed the matches of next weekend! Especially La Liga feels difficult now after the international break and several important transfers, so it is better to take a good look at it before making any further predictions. For the upcoming months my focus will be in Spain, Italy, England and France, not to forget the decisive games in Finland. 

But now a few words of France v Finland. Needless to say I am not backing this heavily given the recent results, but here is what we know:

Surprisingly last time France won a game was 6 matches ago when they beat Germany by 1-0. At that time they were on a run of 5 wins without conceding a goal, and the recent results do not mean they would still not be a world top-5 team. Yet, in this qualification group their last 2 games have been 1-1 draws with Bosnia and Ukraine, which are not much better teams than Finland today.

These teams met in France last November in a friendly, Finland came out as 0-2 surprise winners with goals of Forss and a beauty by Onni Valakari, who also impressed vs Kazakstan.

Finland have now played 7 matches in a row where only one team has scored, and never more than twice. In the EURO2020 they were in too good company and not really close to qualify despite winning Denmark in that Eriksen match which we all do remember, but in these qualifications they have started well with draws v Bosnia and Ukraine, and a comfortable win over Kazakstan last Saturday.

Finland do get back at least their top midfielder Glen Kamara (Rangers) from suspension and also cb Toivio will likely step in as he was rested last time, the only major absentee is midfielder Lod due injury, but there are options in Valakari and Schuller. Also team captain Tim Sparv has probably returned to match fitness.

France have such a wide material that a few absentees do not make huge difference, but I have to mention that Mbappe, N'Kante, Lemar, Kounde and Tolisso will not play. Anyone missing those first two mentioned will see at least some impact.

The class difference remains as huge, but Finland have learned over the years to be patient and can score from the few chances given to them, the goal by Pohjanpalo on Saturday was another example of that. And there are still goals in Pukki and a possibility from super talent Onni Valakari.

2-0 perhaps is the likeliest outcome, but with these odds I need put a beer's worth of Finland +1.5.

Talk to you next week friends, take care!