Or do they? It could be the best team at home vs the currently worst team. Let us have a look.

Atalanta last 7 games with xG-numbers below.

本场可能是目前主场最好的球队对阵客场最差的球队。让我们看看 亚特兰大队过去7场比赛的真实进球统计

Yes, they lost a 0-2 lead away at Bologna, but last 3 home games are 12-2 in total score, and they were against decent teams Fiorentina, Roma and Sassuolo!

Parma with same data show that

是的，他们在博洛尼亚2-0的领先优势下没有赢球，但是最近3场主场比赛的总净胜球是12-2，他们与佛罗伦萨，罗马和萨索洛等这样的强队交手！

帕尔马同期的数据如下

perhaps the 0-3 last round was a bit harsh, but they have lost last 3 games, and Crotone and Torino of those are relegation candidates! Against the better teams they even have a 2-2 draw away at Milan, but were badly outplayed by Juventus.

How good is Atalanta this year? They are now seasoned CL goers and there have been some slumps, but they seem have returned to their best now and handled well the problems with Papu Gomez leaving the club.

Class-wise Atalanta have been a top-2 team in Serie A for a few seasons now in the underlying xG-data, this time they are just one of the very even top-6 teams.

Absentees

The injury situation at Atalanta is excellent, midfielder Pasalic is the only injured player, df Romero is suspended. There will some transfer action at Atalanta, a defender from Belgium already joined the club and some of the stars may be leaving if the price is right.

At Parma top scorer Gervinho and midfielders Pezzella and Grassi are out.

As one Serie A spezialist put it:

"What more can be said about Parma? They’re dreadful. A 3-0 loss against basement dwellers Torino should have cost Fabio Liverani his job. A meeting of the club’s higher-ups in Collecchio on Monday somehow saw him spared, but Wednesday’s meeting with Atalanta could be his last chance.

Things are so bad there now that even shots on target are seen as things worth celebrating"

I do not want to make this more difficult than it seems. Atalanta can create worth 5.0 xG vs teams like Parma, and it is enough to cover the -1.5 handicap in the end.

4-1

也许上回合0-3不是正常水准，但他们已经连续输掉了最近3场比赛，而其中的克罗托内和都灵都是降级的热门球队！面对更好的球队，虽然在米兰有2-2的战绩，但面对尤文又有非常大的差距。

今年的亚特兰大有多好？他们现在是经验丰富的欧冠级别的球队，虽然出现了一些下滑，但是现在看来他们已经恢复了最佳状态，并且很好地处理了Gomez的问题。

在基本的数据中，亚特兰大已经好几年成为意甲联赛中排名前2的球队，目前他们只是排名前6的球队之一。

亚特兰大的伤停情况非常好，中场帕萨里奇是唯一受伤的球员，罗梅罗被停赛。转会方面亚特兰大会有所行动，比利时后卫将会加盟，如果价格合适的话，一些球星可能会离开。

帕尔马（Parma）的最佳射手热尔维尼奥（Gervinho）和中场佩兹拉（Pezzella）和格拉西（Grassi）缺席。

正如一位意甲专家所说： “关于帕尔玛，还有什么可说的？他们真的很糟糕。对排名垫底的都灵0-3的失利应该让法比奥·利弗拉尼下课。与亚特兰大会面可能是他最后的机会。

但是目前球队的情况是如此糟糕，甚至连射正一次目标都是值得庆祝的事情。”

与帕尔马这样的球队相比，亚特兰大可以创造出5.0的价值，这足以打穿-1.5的指数。

比分参考4-1