Arsenal vs Chelsea

Arsenal were extremely disappointing versus Brenford in the first round and my fans and myself had a justified winner Brentford +0.5 goals handicap. I watched the match twice to write down detailed notes about Arsenal - and their more specifically their problems with their offensive game. I must say Brentford were perhaps a little lucky though to score two goals as their created some 1.60 in expected goals whereas Arsenal only created some 1.1 in goal expectancy. The statistics indicating Arsenal would have dominated the mach - 65% ball possession and 22 scoring attempts are indeed misleading! They had only four shots on target. The hosts had eight scoring attempts and 3 shots on goal. Arsenal had several missing players in that match and will be missing many players from this match too. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Lacazette and Gabriel are reported to out for sure and Alex Runarsson is very likely out too. These absentees do hurt as Arsenal does not have the luxury of having close to 20 top players in the team like the top teams Manchester City and Chelsea. I still rate Aubameyang as a very good striker despite performing below expectations last season - especially for a team not top team like Arsenal. In the past he has shown what he is capable of scoring big number of goals and recording a lot of assists too. Against Brentford Arsenal totally lacked offensive creativity and whilst I do believe they are able to enhance their performance in that area and their level in general Chelsea with rock-solid defense and dangerous strikers are a huge challenge for them on Sunday. They simply do not seem to have any weaknesses and Thomas Tuchel has looked like a genius so far - Chelsea are a lot better under him they they were when the club legend Frank Lampard was the manager. Arsenal's defense has been vulnerable for many years already, especially versus top teams and if Brentford were able to score twice Chelsea must have a good chance to so as well.. Two goals would very likely be enough for Chelsea to win.. Overall I still see Arsenal as the 7th best team in the league, however the difference to West Ham and Brighton is pretty small. But most importantly, looking at this match, with the absentees and current state of the team Chelsea look a lot stronger. Also let's remember this is a London Derby so the home advantage is slightly smaller than normally. I also do not rate Arteta as a top-class manager and would not be surprised if he was sacked before the season ends.

Chelsea will be without Kante in this match which does hurt as he can not be fully replaced by any other player. I would rate him as a top 10 player globally and we could all see how good he can be in the Champions League final in May. Chelsea won the final 1-0 after an amazingly good performance! Manchester City had very few quality scoring chances in that match. Ziyech and Pulisic are also out from this match. However, Chelsea have enough top-class players to justify starting as bigger favorites than the current odds suggest. They played a very convincing match versus poor Crystal Palace winning 3-0 at home in the previous round. However, they did not create the three goals in expected goals - in fact, the number was about 1.60 goals so their win was more clear than events on the pitch would suggest. On the other hand Palace only created a pathetically low 0.35 in goal expectancy which highlights my claim that Chelsea's defense is very good indeed. I would say it is as good as the best team's in the league - Manchester City's defense! Also Chelsea do have immense potential to do even better offensively as Havertz and Werner have not been at their best last season or early this season but can certainly raise their level!

To sum, up Chelsea are clear, over 60% favorites even at the Emirates Stadium and my pick for my fans is Chelsea to win.

阿森纳在第一轮对阵布伦福德的比赛中非常令人失望，我和我的球迷都有一个合理的赢家布伦特福德 +0.5 个进球的差点。我看了两场比赛，写下了关于阿森纳的详细笔记——更具体地说，是他们在进攻端的问题。我必须说布伦特福德可能有点幸运，尽管他们打进了两个进球，因为他们创造了大约 1.60 的预期进球，而阿森纳只创造了大约 1.1 的进球预期。表明阿森纳将主宰马赫的统计数据——65% 的控球率和 22 次得分尝试确实具有误导性！他们只有四次射中目标。主队有 8 次得分尝试和 3 次射门。阿森纳在那场比赛中有几名球员失踪，这场比赛也将错过许多球员。据报道，Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang、Lacazette 和 Gabriel 肯定会出局，Alex Runarsson 也很可能出局。这些缺席者确实受到了伤害，因为阿森纳没有接近球队中的 20 名顶级球员，如顶级球队曼城和切尔西。尽管上赛季的表现低于预期，但我仍然认为奥巴梅扬是一名非常出色的前锋——尤其是对于一支不像阿森纳这样的顶级球队。在过去，他已经展示了他有能力打入大量进球并记录大量助攻。对阵布伦特福德的阿森纳完全缺乏进攻创造力，虽然我相信他们能够提高他们在该领域的表现，而他们在切尔西的整体水平拥有坚如磐石的防守和危险的前锋，这对他们来说是周日的巨大挑战。他们似乎没有任何弱点，到目前为止，托马斯·图切尔看起来像个天才——切尔西在他的带领下要好得多，他们在俱乐部传奇人物弗兰克·兰帕德担任主教练时要好得多。多年来，阿森纳的防守一直很脆弱，尤其是对阵顶级球队，如果布伦特福德能够得分两次，切尔西也必须有很好的机会。.. 两个进球将很可能足以让切尔西获胜。 总的来说，我仍然认为阿森纳是联盟第 7 强的球队，但与西汉姆和布莱顿的差异很小。但最重要的是，看着这场比赛，切尔西队的缺席和目前状态看起来要强得多。另外让我们记住这是一场伦敦德比，所以主场优势比平时略小。我也不认为阿尔特塔是顶级教练，如果他在赛季结束前被解雇，我也不会感到惊讶。

切尔西在这场比赛中将没有坎特，这确实很受伤，因为他无法被任何其他球员完全取代。我将他评为全球前 10 名球员，我们都可以看到他在 5 月的欧冠决赛中表现如何。切尔西凭借出色的表现最终以 1-0 获胜！曼城在那场比赛中很少有高质量的得分机会。本场比赛齐耶赫和普利西奇也缺阵。然而，切尔西有足够的顶级球员来证明首发是合理的比当前赔率显示的更大的热门。他们上轮主场3-0战胜了可怜的水晶宫，打了一场非常有说服力的比赛。然而，他们并没有在预期进球中创造三个进球——事实上，这个数字大约是 1.60 个进球，所以他们的胜利比球场上的事件所暗示的更清楚。另一方面，水晶宫在进球预期中只创造了一个低得可怜的 0.35，这突显了我对切尔西防守确实非常好的说法。我会说这和联盟中最好的球队一样好——曼城的防守！切尔西也有巨大的潜力在进攻端做得更好，因为哈弗茨和维尔纳上赛季或本赛季初都没有处于最佳状态，但肯定可以提高他们的水平！

总而言之，切尔西很明显，即使在酋长球场也有超过 60% 的赢球概率，我选择是切尔西获胜。