Brighton Hove Albion VS Watford

Brighton Hove host Watford at Amex Stadium tonight for this English Premier League match round 2 match. I rate Brighton as the 9th best team in the league which is slightly higher than the betting market in general. The betting markets expects Brighton to take some 47 points this season whereas I expect them to take over 50 points. I also rate Brighton's squad as more valuable than many fans or football analysts. Brighton were incredibly unlucky last season and should have had some 19 goals better goals scored/ scored allowed ratio in terms of expected goals scored/ allowed. However, as their strikers sometimes clearly lacked some skill to make the most of the scoring chances. Also a big number of their attacks were too slow the defending side, especially in the matches were Brighton were favorites and controlled the ball, had too much time to get ready to defend with at least nine men so the raw expected goals numbers do not quite reflect the events on the pitch and I would adjust the number from the 19 mentioned above to about 15. However, Brighton were extremely unlucky. Of course the betting market also realizes this statistic but still seem to under-value Brighton here.. Brighton did well in the opening round and fully deserved the 2-1 away win over Burnley. Burnley of course are a not a top team but still often play well at home. Brighton had almost 65% ball possession and eight scoring chances whereas Burnley had three. Burnley were leading 1-0 for a long time but pretty late in the second half Brighton scored two quick goals and showed great mental strength to come back and win.

How about Watford then? I still rate as the worst team in this league followed by Norwich who are almost as bad a team. They beat Aston Villa 3-2 at home in the first round and did play a little better than I would have expected but I must say Villa were a big disappointment and defended very badly. I would not give Watford too much credit for the win. They were effective in making the most of their scoring chances and of course boosted my the early 1-0 goal and home crowd. Things will surely be a lot harder for them today away from home against Brighton who at the moment are a better team than Aston Villa.

To sum up, we have clearly better team by raw class Brighton who are under-valued by the betting market playing at home against a very limited team. Brighton have some 62% chance of winning and Brighton -0.5 goals handicap is my picks for my fans here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

今晚，布莱顿霍夫主场迎战沃特福德，进行英超第二轮比赛。我认为布莱顿是联赛中排名第九的球队，略高于博彩市场的总体水平。博彩市场预计布莱顿本赛季将获得47分左右，而我预计他们将获得50分以上。我还认为布莱顿的球队比许多球迷或足球分析师更有价值。布莱顿上赛季非常不走运，按照预期进球数和允许进球数来计算，应该有19个更好的进球数和允许进球数。然而，由于他们的前锋有时明显缺乏一些技术来充分利用进球机会。而且他们的很多进攻都太慢了，特别是在布莱顿被看好并控球的比赛中，我有太多的时间准备防守，至少有9个人，所以原始的预期进球数不能完全反映球场上的情况，我将上述19个调整到15个左右。然而，布赖顿却非常不幸。当然，博彩市场也意识到了这一数据，但似乎仍然低估了布莱顿的价值。布莱顿在第一轮表现不错，2-1客场战胜伯恩利是完全应得的。伯恩利当然不是一支顶级球队，但仍然经常在主场打得很好。布莱顿有65%的控球率和8次得分机会，而伯恩利只有3次。伯恩利1-0领先了很长一段时间，但在下半场的最后一段时间，布莱顿迅速攻入两球，并展现出强大的精神力量来反击并赢得比赛。

沃特福德怎么样?我仍然是这个联盟中最差的球队，紧随其后的是诺维奇，他们几乎也是最差的球队。他们在第一轮主场以3-2击败了阿斯顿维拉，他们的表现确实比我预期的要好一些，但我必须说维拉令人失望，他们的防守非常糟糕。我不会对沃特福德的胜利给予太多的赞扬。他们有效地利用了他们的进球机会，当然也帮助我在1-0的进球和主场的观众。对他们来说，今天客场对阵布赖顿的比赛肯定会更加艰难，布赖顿目前是一支比阿斯顿维拉更好的球队。

综上所述，我们有明显更好的布莱顿队，他们被博彩市场低估了，在家里对阵一个非常有限的球队。