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芬兰人,有自己投注模型,公开记录的2136场比赛场均盈利率超10%
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So close but... 很接近了,但是...

2021-08-19

比赛分析

欧协联

已完赛

星期五2021-08-20 00:00

解读理由

I honestly hope this is not what happens, but the % of Union Berlin winning by at least two goals in unfortunately more than 50%.

Why is it that, in a nutshell a few points.

1) This is hot KuPS home ground, their stadion is not good enough so they are forced to play in Helsinki, Olympic stadion where they lose the home advantage, and also have to play on natural grass which is for them a bit rare.

2) The run of KuPS so far has been excellent, but also somewhat rocky. They scored in both legs vs Vorskla in added time, and needed those goals. Against Astana away they were 2-0 down at half-time, 3-1 at later stage, ar 3-2 their keeper made an excellent save, and in a few minutes after that they scored twice to win by 3-4 in a mad match. Lucas Rangel scored a hat trick after coming in at half-time, but he is not a superman, it was the night of his life!

3) There are more than half a dozen new players now in KuPS, but the numbers do not make up the quality. For example their latest striker signing Tim Väyrynen has also played in Germany, but for the reserves only! The class difference is huge. He also has 10 goals 47 games for Hansa Rostock.

4) KuPS keeper is 2nd choice and not a reliable one. As also their key centreback Tomas has been out - and probably will be - they have been forced to move their star player Nana Boateng from holding midfielder role to a cb position, and there have been huge problems at times as he is not a defender, and now there is also a hole in the midfield. Also the creative midfielder Urho Nissilä is suspended today.

It is pity KuPS are not in full strentght, because at this point Union could be challenged, the season only started and there are big chances in personnel. It is likely that Union will field a 2nd string starting lineup for this, but then again it has to be remembered that no one of KuPS has made, or neither will make even that stage in their career.

Hyökkäyspelin ehdottomasti tärkein palanen on kokenut Max Kruse. Kusenia vastaan osunut Awoniyi satutti takareittään ja saattaa olla sivussa. Avauksen optioista puolustava keskikenttä Prömel sekä laituri Becker ovat varmuudella sivussa.

The most important player in the Union attack is Max Kruse, but the scorer in the 1-1 draw with Leverkusen, Awoniyi, seemed to injure himself at least slightly and might be rested. From optimal lineup defensive midfielder Prömel and winger Becker are out for sure.

There will be about 6000 spectators, a few hundred of them supporting Union, but they will also be the louder part.

So I am hoping for the unlikely KuPS success and will be at the stadion myself, but the most likely outcome is a 0-2 kind of home loss after Kreidl's weakness in KuPS box.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

我真诚地希望这不是真的,但不幸的是,柏林联合以至少两个进球获胜,超过50%。

为什么会这样,简而言之,有几点。

1)这是热队的主场,他们的体育场不够好,所以他们被迫在赫尔辛基的奥林匹克体育场比赛,在那里他们失去了主场优势,而且他们还必须在天然草地上比赛,这对他们来说有点罕见。

2)到目前为止,游戏的运行非常出色,但也有些不稳定。他们在对沃斯克拉的两回合加时赛中都有进球,并且需要这些进球。在客场对阵阿斯塔纳的比赛中,他们在上半场以2比0落后,之后又以3比1落后,他们的门将3比2做出了精彩的扑救,几分钟后他们连进两球,在一场疯狂的比赛中以3比4获胜。卢卡斯·兰格尔在半场上场后上演帽子戏法,但他不是超人,这是他生命中最重要的一晚!

3)现在有超过6个新玩家在加成,但数量不能弥补质量。例如,他们最新签下的前锋Tim Väyrynen也在德国踢球,但只在预备队!阶级差异是巨大的。他还为罗斯托克出战47场,攻入10球。

4)守护人是第二选择,不可靠。作为其关键的中卫之间也托马斯——并可能——他们被迫把他们的明星球员娜娜从中场博阿滕cb位置的作用,也有巨大的问题有时他不是一个后卫,现在在中场还有一个洞。另外,富有创造力的中场球员乌尔霍Nissilä今天也将停赛。

遗憾的是,曼联还没有完全恢复,因为在这一点上曼联可能会受到挑战,赛季刚刚开始,在人员方面有很大的机会。很有可能联盟会在这次比赛中安排一个二线先发阵容,但是再次提醒大家的是,没有任何一个联盟球员能在他们的职业生涯中取得这样的成绩。

联盟进攻中最重要的球员是马克斯·克鲁斯,但1:1战平勒沃库森的得分手阿沃尼似乎伤到了自己,可能需要休息。在最佳阵容中,防守中场Prömel和边锋贝克尔肯定会出局。

届时将有大约6000名观众,其中几百人支持工会,但他们的声音也会更大。

所以我希望不太可能的成功,我自己也会在球场上,但最可能的结果是0-2的主场输掉,因为克雷德尔在上下半场的弱点。


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