I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the latest odds movements for today's match up.

Odds on hosts slashed down by 0.30 from opening odds on big Asian markets and I fully agree with this trend. I expect even bigger drops prior to the kick off.

Reason of these drops is very simple - Santos played last match only 2 days ago. They played at home against Libertad in Copa Sudamericana. They won 2:1, but that was very tight match. Santos coach Fernando Didiz used all his key players in that game and 9/10 players from line up which played against Libertad is predicted to play today.

Santos played don't had too long time for recovery, in addition to that they have to travel. It's really long travel - from Sao Paulo state to Ceara state is about 40 hours drive by car..

On the other hand Fortazela is fresh, they played last match 7 days ago and they won on away against Palmeiras.

In current situation Fortazela is must play bet in my eyes. They are the strongest home team in whole league - 6 wins in 7 home matches with excellent 16:4 goals balance. On the other hand Santos lost 4 of 7 away matches and conceded 13 goals.

Fortazela in normal situation will be solid bet here, but in today's circumstances I see great chances for hosts.