Watford vs Aston Villa

The English Premier League started yesterday with Brentford beating Arsenal 2-0 bringing us the third winning pick in a row. Let's go for more today! My fans can expect a big number of great value picks over the long English Premier league season.

Watford are the worst team in this league in my power ratings whereas overall on the betting market Norwich are ranked last. I would say Watford are more like a "circus" than a serious top-level football organization. The team has switched their manager very often in the past and do not seem to have a long-term strategy. Things look far from stable for them overall. Their current manager is somewhat talented but very inexperienced and I would not be surprised if he got sacked pretty soon this season.. Watford simply lack quality in defense, midfield and offense and the chance of them relegating is most definitely over 50%. They have lost two of their latest friendlies, first to Arsenal 1-4 and then to Crystal Palace 1-3, who are certainly are not good team. Before that they played two draws - one of these was versus Stevenage who are a small team. Disappointing indeed.. Whilst my fans know I do not give friendlies much emphasis, Watford's record is certainly bad. They would need to be lucky or improve a lot to beat Aston Villa today.

Aston Villa expected the betting market's expectations clearly last season but I was not really surprised by them finishing in the 11th place. They are not a top team but still very solid and have a good manager. They have good stricture in their game and for the most of the time look organized on the pitch. I rank them in the 10th place in my pre-season power ratings that illustrate the teams' overall class. I have used several weeks analyzing the teams and players in all of the biggest four European leagues - English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga and Italian Serie A. In these six leagues and in Finnish Veikkausliiga and Ykkönen my fans can expect even sharper probability estimations than in other leagues and competitions. Aston Villa have a lot of quality in the team and can handle losing their best player, attacking midfielder and English national team player Jack Grealish. They have many offensive variations/ tactics and should have the firepower to beat Watford today. I do not see big weaknesses in their defense either - at least not anything a bad team like Watford would be able to take advantage of. Aston Villa made 100 million pounds selling Grealish to reigning Champions Manchester City and whilst no player within their reach can fully replace Grealish, they have also spent some money signing an attacking trio Leon Bailey, Emiliano Buendía and Danny Ings this summer. All three are very good players, especially Buendia was excellent during the 2019/2020 season with Norwich in the Premiership assisting a big number of goals and creating a lot of quality scoring chances for his team mates, for Teemu Pukki in particular. Last season he was a dominant player in the Championship. It seems the betting market has over-reacted to losing Grealish and under-value the three new players listed above and Villa will probably buy even more talented players.

To sum up, Villa are clearly the better team and some 48-49% favorites today so I recommend my fans bet on them -0.5 goals handicap.

英超联赛昨天开始，布伦特福德以 2-0 击败阿森纳，为我们带来了三连红。让我们今天继续冲击连红！在漫长的英超联赛赛季中，我会持续带来推荐。

沃特福德是联赛中最差的球队，诺维奇在机构的排名倒数第一。我会说沃特福德更像是一个“马戏团”，而不是一个严肃的顶级足球队。球队过去经常更换教练，似乎没有长期战略。总体而言看起来非常不稳定。他们的现任主帅有些天赋，但缺乏经验，如果他本赛季遭到解雇，我并不会感到惊讶。沃特福德在防守、中场和进攻方面都缺乏实力，他们降级的可能性绝对超过 50%。他们最近输掉了两场友谊赛，先是 1-4 输给阿森纳，然后是 1-3 输给水晶宫。在此之前，他们踢了两场平局——其中一场是对阵斯蒂夫尼奇，他们是一支小球队，表现令人失望。虽然我不太重视友谊赛，但沃特福德的战绩确实很糟糕。他们需要运气或才能战胜阿斯顿维拉。

阿斯顿维拉上个赛季对机构的预期很清楚，但我对他们排在第 11 名并不感到意外。他们不是一支顶级球队，但仍然非常稳定，并且拥有一位出色的教练。他们在比赛中表现出色，而且大部分时间在球场上看起来都很有条理。我本赛季将他们排在前10 位，这说明了球队的整体水平。我用了几个星期来分析所有四大欧洲联赛的球队和球员——英超联赛、西甲联赛、德甲联赛和意甲联赛。阿斯顿维拉队中有很强的实力，可以弥补失去他们最好的球员的损失，攻击型中场和英国国家队球员杰克格雷利什。他们有许多进攻性的变化/战术，今天应该有击败沃特福德的能力。我没有看到他们的防守有很大的弱点——至少没有像沃特福德这样的糟糕球队能够给对手有利用的机会。阿斯顿维拉将格拉利什卖给了卫冕冠军曼城，赚了 1 亿英镑，虽然他们力所能及的球员都无法完全取代格拉利什，但他们今年夏天也花了一些钱签下了进攻三人组莱昂·贝利、埃米利亚诺·布恩迪亚和丹尼·英格斯。三人都是非常出色的球员，尤其是布恩迪亚在 2019/2020 赛季表现出色，诺维奇在英超联赛中取得大量进球，并​​为队友创造了很多高质量的进球机会，尤其是为普基。机构似乎对失去格雷利什和低估上述三名新球员的价值反应过度，维拉可能会购买更多有天赋的球员。

总而言之，维拉显然是更好的球队，并且今天有 48-49% 的几率赢球，所以我建议北单选择阿斯顿维拉-0.5胜。