Brentford vs Arsenal

Finally probably the most competitive football league starts today! Brentford were promoted to the Premier League for this season after many years of consistent work in the Championship. In my opinion they are better prepared to compete at this level than Watford or Norwich and the team seems to be pretty balanced and I do not see them having huge weaknesses. I rate on the 16th place in my pre-season power ratings, higher than the betting market in general. I most definitely see Brentford as a better team than the the players' salaries and players' total estimated market value would indicate. Especially their defense is in my opinion better than many fans or the betting market seem to estimate. Of course they are inexperienced for this level and will make mistakes that will cost them but especially at home I do not expect them to allow a big number of goals even against the top teams, more specifically Manchester City and Chelsea.

Brentford were very strong at home last season in Championship and did not lost very few matches at Brentford Community Stadium. We must also remember almost all matches were played without fans because of Covid-19 restrictions. Now they will have the support of their fans which of course helps them a lot. Having fans cheering and singing is even more important for the underdog, like Brentford today than for a massive favorite for example for Manchester City playing at home versus a lowly team. It is also worth noticing that newly promoted teams often start the season well but struggle later in the season. The main reasons must be the huge boost they get finally having the chance to compete at the highest level and also the teams that were promoted often have a decent starting lineup but not that much quality on the bench so injuries that almost always do happen at some stage of the season and also fatigue hurt them more than teams with a bigger number of top-quality players.

Arsenal were a disappointment last season and failed to qualify for any UEFA European club competition for the first time in over 20 years. Arsenal are a traditional big team in England and a well-known brand all over the World with a lot of fans who also often like to bet on their team. This, I believe, results in them being over-rated on the betting market especially versus smaller teams like Brentford. Arsenal were lucky last season in terms of goals scored / goals allowed ratio. According to my advanced statistics the exact number is about eight goals. Today they will be without Aubameyang which hurts them for sure. He was not at his best last season though but scored a huge number of goals in the past and is still a very good striker. Overall I see Arsenal's offense worse than many soccer analysts do and rate them on the 7th place in my current power ratings.

To sum up, Arsenal are of course the better team and favorites today but Brentford have over 50% chance to avoid defeat today and Brentford +0.5 goals handicap is the pick I recommend my fans to take!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

最后可能是最有竞争力的足球联赛今天开始!在多年的积分榜上，布伦特福德在本赛季升入了英超。在我看来，他们比沃特福德和诺维奇准备得更好，球队看起来很平衡，我不认为他们有巨大的弱点。在我的季前赛能量评级中，我排名第16位，比一般的博彩市场都要高。我非常肯定地认为布伦特福德是一支比球员工资和球员总市场价值所显示的更好的球队。特别是在我看来，他们的防守比许多球迷或博彩市场估计的要好。当然，他们在这个水平上缺乏经验，会犯错误，这会让他们付出代价，但尤其是在主场，我不认为他们会让大量的进球，即使是对顶级球队，尤其是曼城和切尔西。

布伦特福德上赛季在英冠的主场表现非常出色，在布伦特福德社区球场也没有输掉几场比赛。我们还必须记住，由于新冠疫情的限制，几乎所有比赛都在没有球迷的情况下进行。现在他们有了球迷的支持，这当然对他们有很大帮助。球迷的欢呼和歌唱对于像今天的布伦特福德这样处于劣势的球队来说甚至比一个大热门更重要，比如曼城主场对阵一个低级球队。同样值得注意的是，新晋球队通常在赛季开始时表现很好，但在赛季后期却很挣扎。的主要原因一定是巨大的推动他们终于有机会参加最高水平也提升的团队经常有一个像样的首发阵容,但没有那么多质量在板凳上受伤,本赛季几乎总是发生在某个阶段疲劳也伤害他们多与一个更大的团队顶级球员的数量。

阿森纳上赛季令人失望，20多年来第一次未能获得欧足联的资格。阿森纳是英格兰传统的强队，也是世界知名的品牌，拥有众多球迷，他们也经常喜欢为自己的球队下注。我认为，这导致他们在博彩市场上被高估了，尤其是与布伦特福德这样的小球队相比。阿森纳在上赛季的进球数和失球率上是幸运的。根据我的高级统计，准确的数字是大约8个进球。今天他们将失去奥巴梅杨，这肯定会伤害他们。上个赛季他并没有处于最佳状态，但是他在过去打进了大量的进球，仍然是一个非常好的前锋。总的来说，我认为阿森纳的进攻比许多足球分析师认为的要差，在我目前的强力排名中，他们排在第7位。

总而言之，阿森纳当然是今天更好的球队和最受欢迎的球队，但布伦特福德今天有超过50%的机会避免失败，布伦特福德+0.5个进球障碍是我推荐我的球迷的选择!