I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the latest odds movements. Odds on hosts raised up by 0.20 in last couple of hours at big Asian markets with the biggest possible limits. I fully agree with this trend and expect even bigger drops prior to the kick off.

Gamba Osaka is simply much better team than Shimizu. Shimizu previous season finished at 16th place, Gamba finished on second place. Big difference.

In current season both teams are on similar level upfront: Shimizu have 3.6 shots on target per game, Gamba 3.4. Guests are much better team at the back - they conceded 9 goals less than hosts. Gamba conceded 1.0 goals per game, Shimizu 1.4.. (9 clean sheets, Shimizu only 4). Gamba as well should be able to control middle zone without too many problems - Shimizu have the lowest average ball possession in whole league, only 40.6%. On the other hand Gamba have 49.7% and is able to make 80 accurate passes per game more than Shimizu.

I saw Shimizu in last round. They had draw at home against Yokohama, but that was very lucky result for them - Yokohama had 21 shots more and 70% ball possession.. Shimizu defensive formation is out of shape at the moment - they conceded more than one goal in last 3 matches in a row. On the other hand Gamba scored at least one goal in last 5 games (8 goals in total) and they should be able to score today.

Gamba lost only 4 of last 23 matches against Shimizu and I trust for them today.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我一直等到最后一刻才下注，因为我想看看最新的赔率走势。在过去的几个小时里，大型亚洲市场的主机赔率上升了0.20，可能有最大的限制。我完全同意这一趋势，并预计在开赛前会有更大的跌幅。

大阪钢巴是一支比清水强得多的球队。清水在上个赛季排名第16，甘巴排名第二。很大的差别。

在本赛季，两支球队都处在相似的水平:清水队场均有3.6次射正，甘巴队3.4次。客队在后防线上表现更好，他们比主队少丢9球。甘巴场均失球1.0个，清水1.4个。(9场无失球，清水只有4场)。甘巴也应该能够控制中间区域，没有太多问题——清水的控球率是全联盟最低的，只有40.6%。而甘巴的传球率为49.7%，每场比赛的精准传球率比清水高80次。

上一轮我看到清水了。他们在主场和横滨打平，但这对他们来说是非常幸运的结果——横滨多出了21次射门和70%的控球率。清水队的防守阵型现在已经走形了——他们在最近三场比赛中连丢一球以上。另一方面，甘巴在过去的5场比赛中至少进了一个球(总共进了8个球)，他们今天应该有能力进球。

钢巴在过去的23场比赛中只输了4场与清水的比赛，我相信他们今天的表现。