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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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2021-08-03

比赛分析

欧冠

已完赛

星期三2021-08-04 01:00

解读理由

Sparta Praha VS AS Monaco

Sparta Praha from the Czech Republic welcome visitors from Monaco for the UEFA Champions League qualification first leg at Generali Ceska pojistovna Arena. This is Monaco's, who play in the French Ligue 1, first competitive match this season whereas the Czech Republic 1. Liga has started and the hosts have already played one round of Champions League qualification beating Rapid Vienna 3-2 on aggregate. At this level in particular this factor is something we should definitely take into account.. Also, the home advantage is, as I have written previously, huge in international club football and Sparta Praha have very passionate fans indeed. Whilst Monaco are unarguably the better team by raw class here I estimate the hosts have over 50% chance to avoid defeat today and recommend my fans to take Sparta Praha +0.5 goals handicap at very tasty odds at the time of writing this. Let's take a look at some more rationales for the pick.

Monaco finished 3rd in the Ligue 1 but unlike some may believe the overall level of this league is not anywhere even close to that of the English Premier League, German Bundesliga or Spanish La Liga. Ligue 1 has been dominated by PSG for about a decade and whilst Lille very surprisingly managed to win the title last season the big picture is still that level drops a lot behind PSG who can only blame themselves for screwing up too many matches in silly ways last season and not winning the league.. Monaco were lucky in terms of expected goals last season and I expect to go against them not just today but also when the Ligue 1 starts. Based on some twenty years of pro betting and almost thirty years of watching European football I can say that French teams are often quite over-valued in international competitions, especially in away matches. I do know Monaco had a decent away record last season but let's not forget the effects of Covid-19 restrictions..

The "kings" of Czech Republic Sparta Praha played well in both matches to beat Rapid Vienna who of course are not as good a teams as Monaco but still a quality opponent. At home they dominated and in Austria it was quite a balanced battle. In their domestic league they have two wins from two matches and in their latest match they crushed Liberec in an away match 5-0 and had almost 80% ball possession and a lot more scoring chances. It is worth noticing that Liberec are a good team in 1. Liga. Sparta Praha are no strangers to success in Europe and played in the Europe League group stage last season and did quite well even beating the big Scottish team Celtic twice - 4-1 both times.

To sum up, Sparta Praha seem physically and mentally ready to challenge the better team here today!


来自捷克共和国的布拉格斯巴达在 Generali Ceska pojistovna Arena 迎接来自摩纳哥的游客参加欧洲冠军联赛资格赛首回合比赛。这是摩纳哥队本赛季首次参加法甲联赛,而捷克队则是本赛季第一场比赛。西甲联赛已经开始,东道主已经进行了一轮欧冠资格赛,总比分3-2击败维也纳快速队。在这个层面上,这个因素是我们绝对应该考虑的因素。另外,正如我之前所写的,主场优势是国际俱乐部足球的巨大优势,布拉格斯巴达确实拥有非常热情的球迷。虽然摩纳哥毫无疑问是这里的原始班级更好的球队,但我估计东道主今天有超过 50% 的机会避免失败,并建议我的球迷在撰写本文时以非常可口的赔率让 Sparta Praha +0.5 的目标让分。让我们来看看选择的更多理由。

摩纳哥在法甲中获得第三名,但与某些人不同相信这个联赛的整体水平与英超、德甲或西甲的水平相差甚远。法甲联赛已经被巴黎圣日耳曼统治了大约十年,虽然里尔上赛季非常令人惊讶地赢得了冠军,但大局仍然落后于巴黎圣日耳曼,他们只能责怪自己最后以愚蠢的方式搞砸了太多比赛赛季并没有赢得联赛冠军……摩纳哥上赛季在预期进球方面很幸运,我希望不仅在今天,而且在法甲联赛开始时也能与他们对抗。基于大约 20 年的职业博彩和近 30 年的欧洲足球比赛经验,我可以说法国球队在国际比赛中经常被高估,尤其是在客场比赛中。我确实知道摩纳哥上赛季客场战绩不错,但我们不要忘记 Covid-19 限制的影响。

捷克布拉格斯巴达的“国王”两场比赛都发挥出色击败Rapid维也纳队当然不如摩纳哥队,但仍然是一个优秀的对手。在主场,他们占据了主导地位,而在奥地利,这是一场相当平衡的战斗。在他们的国内联赛中,他们在两场比赛中取得了两场胜利,而在最近的一场比赛中,他们在客场比赛中以 5-0 击败了利贝雷茨,拥有近 80% 的控球率和更多的得分机会。值得注意的是,利贝雷茨在1.西甲是一支不错的球队。布拉格斯巴达对欧洲的成功并不陌生,上赛季在欧洲联赛小组赛中出场,甚至两次以 4-1 击败苏格兰大球队凯尔特人,表现也相当出色。 总而言之,今天的布拉格斯巴达似乎已经准备好挑战更好的球队了!

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