JIPPO VS TPS Turku

JIPPO from Joensuu welcome visitors from Turku for today's clash Finnish Ykkönen which is the second highest level of Finnish football. As a Finn I of course follow Finnish football very closely and have watched most of Ykkönen matches too and all of TPS's matches. Looking at the table the bet on TPS might sound weird as the difference in the standings is small between the two teams. However, as I have often mentioned on my previous analyses, we should not be fooled by the table but dig deeper to spot value. Let's take a a closer look..

TPS are a big traditional team who have mostly played in Veikkausliiga which is the highest level of football here in Finland. Their resources - including the budget to pay their players decent salaries for this level, is from a different World than that of JIPPO's who have never played in Veikkausliiga, nothing even close to that in fact! They promoted from Kakkonen Group C to Ykkönen for this season and have exceeded at least my expectations. However, they have also been lucky in terms of expected goals and I do not believe they can maintain their level of football for the rest of the season. The main problem is lack of offensive skill and creativity and I'm not impressed by their tactics either. They have have scored just ten goals this season. In their most match versus Klubi 04 they were dominated by the hosts from Helsinki but managed to be effective in scoring and escaped with a lucky 1-0 away win. I was watching the match live in Helsinki and I must say that despite winning that match a similar performance will probably be not enough today versus TPS Turku..

TPS Turku started the season as one of the biggest candidates to promote (back) to Veikkausliiga where they, as traditional club without a doubt belong to. However, their season has been a huge disappointment so far and they are not even close to the top of Ykkönen but let's not forget the this league is extremely balanced in terms of points earned by the teams and several clubs still have a chance to fight for promotion. So do TPS and they have improved their level quite a lot lately! In their most recent match versus MP they were the better team but were disappointing on the second half and consequently missed their chances to grab all three points and they match ended 2-2. Before this match they played were well in Pietarsaari versus Jaro and won 2-0. Pietarsaari is a difficult place to play in and Jaro are a good team. TPS are finally starting to look like the team I expected them to be this season and have over 60% chance to win today! I expect a lot in particular from promising Joakim Latonen who is not very consistent but an a good day could cause a lot of trouble for JIPPO's defense today. Also worth noticing is that TPS have not lost a single match away from home this season. Indeed, the home advantage is pretty slim in Ykkönen in general which I think the betting market does not fully realize.. The team from Turku are now boosted by the return of Kasperi Hämäläinen who has made a convincing career abroad, for example in Poland, and also the Finnish national team. He is a stunningly good player for this level and brings a lot of leadership and fighting spirit to the team. The situation for missing players is also finally pretty good for TPS - Jasper Jalonen ja Onnipekka Pajula will not be able to play and a few players are questionable at the time of writing this.

基柏迎战来自土尔库，这是芬兰第二级别的联赛。作为芬兰人，我当然非常密切地关注芬兰足球，也观看了大部分芬兰甲的比赛以及 土尔库的所有比赛。看看积分榜，本场选择土尔库可能很奇怪，因为两队之间的积分差异很小。然而，正如我在之前的分析中经常提到的，我们不应该被积分榜所迷惑，而应该更深入地挖掘价值。让我们仔细看看..

土尔库是一支传统的大型球队，他们大部分时间都在芬兰最高级别的联赛比赛。他们的资源——包括为这个级别的球员支付可观薪水的预算，与从未在基柏是完全不同的量级，事实上没有什么指标是接近的！他们本赛季超出了我的预期。然而，他们在预期进球方面也很幸运，我不相信他们能在本赛季剩下的时间里保持目前的水平。主要问题是缺乏进攻技巧和创造力，我对他们的战术也没有印象。他们本赛季只打进了10球。在对阵克鲁比 04 的大部分比赛中，他们被来自赫尔辛基的东道主控制，但成功地得分并以幸运的 1-0 客场胜利逃脱。我正在赫尔辛基观看比赛现场直播，我必须说，尽管赢得了那场比赛，但今天对 TPS Turku 的类似表现可能还不够。

土尔库在本赛季开始时是最有可能晋级（回归）到芬兰超的球队之一，他们毫无疑问属于传统俱乐部。然而，到目前为止，他们的赛季令人非常失望，他们甚至还没有接近 Ykkönen 的榜首，但我们不要忘记这个联赛在球队获得的积分方面非常平衡而且几家具乐部还有机会争取晋级。 土尔库也是，最近水平提升不少！在他们最近对阵 MP 的比赛中，他们是更好的球队，但在下半场令人失望，因此错过了全取三分的机会，他们以 2-2 结束比赛。在这场比赛之前，他们在Pietarsaari对Jaro的比赛中表现出色，并以2-0获胜。 Pietarsaari 是一个很难打的地方，而 Jaro 是一支优秀的球队。土尔库终于开始看起来像我本赛季期望他们成为的球队，并且今天有超过 60% 的获胜机会！我特别期待有希望的 Joakim Latonen，他不是很稳定，但今天的好日子可能会给基柏的防守带来很多麻烦。另外值得注意的是，本赛季TPS在客场没有输过一场比赛。事实上，伊科宁的主场优势总体而言非常微弱，我认为博彩市场并没有完全意识到这一点。图尔库的球队现在得到了提升Kasperi Hämäläinen 在国外取得了令人信服的职业生涯，例如在波兰和芬兰国家队的回归。他是这个级别的出色球员，为球队带来了很多领导力和战斗精神。对于土尔库来说，缺席的情况终于也不错了——Jasper Jalonen ja Onnipekka Pajula 无法上场，还有一些球员出战存疑。