Alashkert Yerevan VS Connahs Quay Nomads FC

The first leg between Aleshkert from Armenia and Connahs Quay FC from Wales ended in a 2-2 draw at Park Avenue in Aberystwyth, Wales despite the visitors being clearly the better team. I watched the whole match and the difference in raw class was clear. Indeed, some of the Connahs Quay's players are not even professional footballers to begin with.. The Armenians were superior at individual skill level but their team play was not as good as the hosts' but they will surely improve for the second leg. I must admit the Welsh team did defend well and fought very hard for every ball. However, the Armenian team had fifteen scoring chances whereas Connahs Quay had only two and  Aleshkert should have won at least won goal difference. The Connahs Quay did have 51% ball possession but they mostly kept the ball far from the Armenians' goal creating very little true danger. 

I expect a pretty dominant performance from the hosts at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan on Wednesday. Armenian teams in general depend heavily on home matches playing in front of their enthusiastic fans. On the other hand the Welsh visitors have even before last weeks surprise first leg draw a shocked a lot better opponents at home. For example in 2017 when they beat a Finnish club HJK Helsinki, who are slightly better overall than Aleshkert, 1-0 despite being forced to defend for almost the full 90 minutes. However, I was at the Telia 5G Arena watching the second leg and the Welsh stood no chance at all losing 3-0 but 5-0 would have been a more justified final score.

According to the respected German website Transfermarkt.com Connah Quay's players have a total market value of just 1.51 million euros whereas the hosts' players are valued at over 5 million euros. While the market value of the team does not fully reflect the teams' overall class as older players of course are less valuable than young promising players it still does tell a lot about how good the team should be on the pitch. The weather in Armenia will be hot, over thirty degrees celsius which also favors the hosts who are better acclimatized to playing in these kinds of circumstances. A worrying thing for the visitors is that they were forced to arrive in Armenia with a team of just 15 players as two players have been ruled out as a result of having to self-isolate after coming in too close contact with Covid-19 cases. Also three part-time players have not traveled to Yerevan because the self-isolation would affect their regular day jobs. Visitor's manager A. Morrison was already without three injured players for Wednesday's match and has picked two academy players as replacements. Danny Holmes and Sameron Dool have been ruled out with knee injuries and Jay Owen cannot play in Armenia because of a calf injury. I do think that to stand a true chance of challenging for the win the Welsh club would have needed a full squad versus a lot stronger team like Aleshkert.

To sum up, I expect the Armenians to put a lot of pressure right from the start, control the ball, and allow the visitors very few chances to attack. There is a good chance, some 52-53%, for them to win by at least two goals so the odds offered are great value!