Buducnost from Montenegro welcomes HJK from Finland in the 2nd leg of UEFA Champions League Qualification. HJK were the better team in the first leg at the Bolt Arena in Helsinki. This was not a surprise as the visitors were missing several important players and HJK has been strong at home even  beating Schalke, Torino and FC Copenhagen in the past. Also,they were heavily favored by the betting market in that match. The first leg was played on artificial turf and Buducnost are not used to this surface. This was a big advantage for HJK and visiting teams have often complained about the weird and very fast surface, especially some years ago when artificial turf was not very common even in northern part of Europe. Today's match is played on a "normal" pitch (grass) which should help the hosts a lot compared to last week's match on artificial turf. I was at the stadium last week and the final score 3-1 in HJK's favor was more or less a justified result. HJK have great fans which gives them a big boost when playing in Helsinki but today I would be surprised to see more than a few fans in Montenegro..

As a Finn myself I have followed the Finnish Veikkausliiga and Finnish clubs in Europe all my life and very often struggle in away matches. For example the second best team in Veikkausliiga lost to a relatively small club Noah 0-1 in Armenia last week and there are many other examples from the past and HJK despite being the best Finnish club my a wide margin do not win often far from home. Let's take a quick look at HJK's historical record in away matches in Europe. For example in 2017 they lost to Connah's Quay 0-1 in Wales. Most of the Welsh team's players were not even pro footballers! Also in 2017 HJK were totally dominated by KF Shkëndija in Macedonia losing 1-3. Of course the level of Montenegro First League is not very high and the best players from Montenegro often leave to play in neighboring countries so I am not saying I believe they have a good chance to qualify today. 

To sum up, HJK are justified favorites even in Montenegro but odds on the hosts winning or draw are definitely too high! HJK do not have to win the match and even losing by one goal would be enough for them. I would estimate HJK have some 44% chance of winning leaving 56% chance for my fans to win the bet.