Palmeiras VS Gremio

Palmeiras who have started the season well host rock-bottom Gremio at Allianz Parque on Wednesday in a match I believe will be an interesting one to watch and to bet on. I do think Palmeiras are the favorites here with about of 50% chance of winning but value is definitely on Gremio +0.5 goals which is my recommended pick for my fans here.

Let's take a look why I would I recommend a pick on Gremio who have not won a match so far in the Brazilian Serie A? First of all the league table does not reflect the true class of either team. Last season Palmeiras finished seventh and Gremio were on sixth place. Not too much has really changed since last season and at the moment I rate Palmeiras slightly better than Gremio in my power ratings that illustrate teams' overall class. Of course these ratings are only the base from where calculating probabilities for each match starts. We have to take injuries, mental and physical state of both teams including team spirit and home advantage - which varies from team to team into consideration. The most recent matches of course have to be given more emphasis of course than matches played several weeks ago too. However, the betting market often over-emphasizes the most recent matches and most importantly, latest results meaning odds can be set incorrectly..

Here we have a classic over-reaction by the betting market to both teams' latest results and perhaps on all the first nine matches Palmeiras have played. Visiting Gremio have only played seven times this season. They will be probably be missing Maicon, Elias Manoel and Leo Gomes which is of course not a positive thing at all but I think the betting market over-emphasizes the meaning of these absentees. I do not want to take too much away from Palmeiras as they have indeed played well and created more good scoring chances than then I would have expected in my pre-season estimation. However, they have had luck not to allow more goals which has resulted in them being a bit higher in the standings than they should by according to my expected points calculations. Let's take a look at their most recent matches. Palmeiras beat Sport Recife three days ago 1-0. They were the better team in that match but not by a wide margin. The ball possession was 51-49% in their favor and had slightly more scoring chances and dangerous attacks but a draw would not have been an unjustified result. Having said that we must remember Sport Recife are a smaller team and definitely worse than Gremio by raw class. Before the Sport Recife match they faced Internacional who also have had a disappointing start to the season in a match that both the betting market and I saw as a very balanced one before the match. On the pitch it was far from balanced and the hosts should have won but lucky Palmeiras were able to grab a 2-1 away win. Internacional had 66% ball possession and much more dangerous attacks. Having said that we must remember Palmeiras' Benjamin Kuscevic received a red card some thirty minutes before the end of the match which of course affected the match quite a lot. Before this match Palmeiras beat Bahia 2-1 as heavy favorites with Breno's very late goal. In general they were only slightly the better team.

How about Gremio then? Indeed, the pick is mainly based on Gremio's potential to considerable raise their level, and being much more effective in making the most the scoring chances they are able to create. A lot will once again depend on central striker Diego Souza finally finding the net. Everybody expected a lot more from Gremio at the start of the season but whilst some bettors and fans may have lost faith in them I can see the class is still there and probably they need one win to get gain some confidence and start climbing up the league table. In their most recent match they dominated Atletico GO but somehow managed to lose 0-1. A very unlucky loss indeed and in terms of expected goals they should have won 2-0 or 2-1. They had 108 dangerous attacks whereas the visitors had only thirteen. I admit though this statistics doesn't fully illustrate the match as visitors did have some scoring chances but in this match Gremio did at least show they are not in any kind of crisis and can play good football. Before the Atletico GO match Gremio lost 0-2 to Juventude in an away match where they had 70% ball possession and some seventy dangerous attacks whereas the hosts had some twenty-five. They would have earned at least a draw.

To sum up, we go for Gremio +0.5 at very lucrative odds and have about 50% chance of winning. This is a classic situation to place a value bet on a team that has much room for improvement.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

本赛季开局良好的帕尔梅拉斯将于周三在安联公园主场迎战最低谷的格雷米奥，我相信这将是一场值得观看和下注的比赛。我确实认为帕尔梅拉斯是这里最受欢迎的球队，有50%的胜率，但价值肯定是格雷米奥+0.5个进球，这是我推荐给我的球迷的。

让我们来看看为什么我会推荐格雷米奥，他到目前为止在巴西意甲还没有赢过一场比赛?首先，积分榜并不能反映球队的真实等级。上个赛季，帕尔梅拉斯排名第七，格雷米奥排名第六。自从上个赛季以来并没有太大的改变，现在我给帕尔梅拉斯的力量评分比格雷米奥稍好一些，这说明了球队的整体水平。当然，这些评级只是计算每场比赛概率的基础。我们必须考虑伤病，两支球队的精神和身体状况，包括团队精神和主场优势——这在不同的球队是不同的。最近的比赛当然要比几周前的比赛更受重视。然而，博彩市场经常过度强调最近的比赛，最重要的是，最新的结果意味着赔率可能设置不正确。

在这里，我们可以看到博彩市场对两支球队的最新结果以及帕尔梅拉斯踢过的前九场比赛的典型过度反应。客队格雷米奥本赛季只打了七场比赛。他们可能会错过麦孔，伊莱亚斯·马诺埃尔和里奥·戈麦斯，这当然不是一件好事，但我认为博彩市场过分强调了这些缺席的意义。我不想从帕尔梅拉斯那里抢走太多的东西，因为他们确实打得很好，创造了比我在季前赛估计的更多的得分机会。然而，他们很幸运没有进更多的球，这使得他们的排名比我预期的要高一些。让我们来看看他们最近的比赛。帕尔梅拉斯三天前以1-0击败累西腓体育队。他们在那场比赛中是较好的球队，但并不是遥遥领先。他们的控球率是51-49%，有更多的得分机会和危险的进攻，但平局不是不公平的结果。话虽如此，我们必须记住累西腓是一支更小的球队，而且绝对比格雷米奥差。在累西腓的比赛之前，他们要面对的是国际米兰，这个赛季的开局也令人失望，在这场比赛之前，博彩市场和我都认为这是一场非常平衡的比赛。在球场上，情况远非平衡，东道主本应获胜，但幸运的是帕尔梅拉斯能够在客场2:1获胜。国际米兰拥有66%的控球率和更危险的进攻。说到这里，我们必须记住帕尔梅拉斯的本杰明·库塞维奇在比赛结束前30分钟被红牌罚下，这对比赛影响很大。在这场比赛之前，帕尔梅拉斯凭借布里诺在最后时刻的进球以2-1击败巴伊亚。总的来说，他们只是稍微好一点。

那么格雷米奥怎么样?事实上，这个选择主要是基于格雷米奥的潜力来显著提高他们的水平，并且更有效地创造出他们能够创造的得分机会。很多人将再次依赖中前锋迭戈·索萨最终找到进球。每个人都期望更多的格雷米奥在赛季的开始但同时一些赌徒和球迷可能对他们失去信心我可以看到类仍然存在,可能他们需要一场胜利来获得一些信心,开始爬上了排行榜。在最近的一场比赛中，他们控制了马竞，但却以0-1的比分输掉了比赛。这确实是一场非常不幸的失利，从进球预期来看，他们应该以2-0或2-1获胜。他们有108次危险袭击，而访客只有13次。我承认，虽然这些数据并不能充分说明这场比赛，客队确实有一些进球机会，但在这场比赛中，格雷米奥至少展示了他们没有陷入任何危机，他们可以踢好足球。在对马竞GO的比赛之前，格雷米奥在一场客场比赛中0-2输给了尤文图斯，他们有70%的控球率和70次危险进攻，而主队只有25次。他们至少会赢个平局。

总而言之，我们选择的是格雷米奥。