Przem头像
外籍分析师
英国亚马逊员工,常年现场看各级别联赛,非常熟悉球队,有十多年经验盈利丰厚。
  • 773

    方案

  • 1278

    粉丝

Excellent value in Euro2020 Semi Final

2021-07-07

比赛分析

欧预赛

已完赛

星期四2021-07-08 03:00

解读理由

In my opinion Denmark have really good chances to make good result here. The Danes are underestimated in this match up. AH +0.5 (or more safe 0.75 or +1) looks like very good bet. Odds on England are simply too low.

England don't have a good streak against Denmark. They recorded only one win against them in last 6 matches.

Without any shadow of doubt all pressure is on England. Match going to be played on Wembley and everyone expects win. In history there was 7 matches between England and Denmark at Wembley. All matches finished with exactly one goal. In October 2020 Denmark played here in National League and they won. For sure they coming for today's match without any fear. That will be very hard nut to crack for hosts.

It's a third SF at European Championships for England, but they never played in final. On the other hand is 4th final for Denmark. Last time when they played in semis they won all competition.

Of course, England still not conceded a single goal in this tournament, but they are not unbreakable. According to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 3.33 goals. I believe today they will have big problem to keep clean sheet for 2 reasons. First - no team has ever recorded 6 clean sheets in a row European Championships or World Cup. Second - they will face extremely dangerous and creative team. Denmark have a lot of options upfront, they not depend only on one or two players. Already 7 different players scored goals for Denmark in this tournament. Denmark scored already 11 goals (expected goals scored: 11.16). Denmark recorded 36 shots on target so far. Will be very hard to stop them.

For me is hard to see 2 or more goals for England. They are not so creative in this tournament. They recorded only 16 shots on target so far. They scored 8 goals, but 4 against tired and unexperienced Ukraine. Denmark defensive formation is not bad at all - they conceded 5 goals (expected goals conceded: 4.44).

Denmark started tournament very bad. They lost first two matches. They had sad incident with Eriksen, but from last group match everything changed. They won 3 matches in a row in great style scoring 2 or more goals in each game. I believe they built something special and this team don't see any limits now.

That will be very hard game for England and in my eyes they are extremely overrated here. Denmark have bigger chances than bookies wants to suggest for us in odds.


在我看来,丹麦有很好的机会在这里取得好成绩。丹麦在这场比赛中被低估了。 丹麦不败看起来是非常好的选择。英格兰的指数简直太低了。

英格兰在对阵丹麦的比赛中表现不佳。在过去的 6 场比赛中,他们只赢了一场。

毫无疑问,所有压力都在英格兰身上。比赛将在温布利进行,每个人都希望获胜。历史上,英格兰和丹麦在温布利有过 7 场比赛。所有比赛都以一个进球结束。 2020 年 10 月,丹麦在这里参加了国家联赛,他们赢了。可以肯定的是,他们毫无畏惧地来参加今天的比赛。

这是英格兰的第三次欧洲杯半决赛,但他们从未参加过决赛。另一方面是丹麦的第四场半决赛。上次他们参加半决赛时,他们赢得了冠军。

当然,英格兰在本次比赛中仍然没有失球,但它们并非牢不可破。根据预期失球模型,他们应该失球 3.33 个。我相信今天他们将有很大的问题来保持零封,原因有两个。首先 - 没有球队在欧洲杯或世界杯上连续 6 次零封。第二——他们将面对极其危险和富有创造力的球队。丹麦在前场有很多选择,他们不仅仅依赖一两个球员。在本次比赛中,已有 7 名不同的球员为丹麦队打进了进球。丹麦已经打进了 11 个进球(预期进球数:11.16)。到目前为止,丹麦已经有36 次射中目标,很难阻止他们。

对我来说很难看到英格兰有两个或更多的进球。他们没有那么有创造力。到目前为止,他们只有 16 次击中目标。他们打进了 8 个进球,在对阵疲惫和缺乏经验的乌克兰的比赛中打进了 4 个。丹麦的防守阵型一点也不差——他们失5球(预期失球数:4.44)。 丹麦开始的比赛非常糟糕。他们输掉了前两场比赛。埃里克森发生了悲伤的事件,但从最后一场小组赛开始,一切都变了。他们以出色的表现连续赢得了 3 场比赛,每场比赛都攻入 2 个或更多进球。这支球队看上去势不可挡。

这对英格兰来说将是一场非常艰难的比赛,在我看来,他们在被高估了。丹麦有机会保持不败。

观点仅代表作者本人,不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论,意见,倾向等都只是作者本人的观点,和平台,组织网站等第三方没有关系。