England vs Denmark (Wembley Stadium, London)

I will stick to in-form England here after easily winning the pick England to win at least 2 goals versus Ukraine at nice odds last Saturday.I must admit though that as expected before the match by me and probably many other experts too the 4-0 win for England was not only a result of England being super good but also because of Ukraine being simply weak. I must admit perhaps 4-0 doesn’t fully reflect the match as Ukraine did have a few good attacks in the first half when England were leading 1-0 and seemed to lose true faith in their chances after 2-0 goal at the beginning of second half. Having said that England were, as expected, very good and solid in defense and were able to improve their level of football yet again from the previous match. Indeed, the team that is able to improve the most over the course of the tournament and defend better than other strong countries has to be a strong candidate to lift the trophy at the end of the tournament..

England did play one disappointing match in this tournament and that was as heavy favorites versus Scotland in a special kind of match due to historical rivalry between the two countries. The Scotts were able to perform above than their normal as facing their bigger neighbor meant so much for them. It was a very balanced match and I must say I was slightly sceptical about England’s chances to win the tournament or even reach the final. Now I believe they have a good chance to beat Italy or Spain in the final. However, it is almost impossible to play at maximum level in every match in a big tournament like this and the main rationale for this pick is England’s performance versus a quality opponent Croatia where the Croats hardly chances to score and one of the tournement favorites Germany who had have a few chances, especially Muller, but England were the better team and lastly crushing Ukraine.

On my previous analysis on the England versus Ukraine match I wrote about the very big number quality playersEngland have overall – a significantly higher number of top-class footballers than Ukraine and making this factor of relevance here the same applies to Denmark despite them being a lot better team than Ukraine of course. England have already both rotated their squad and brought World-class players in from the bench. I do want to highlight the same factor here as this is one of the key rationales for the value pick I offer to my fans. We must also still remember that because of Covid-19 the teams are allowed five substitutions which favors England for the reasons mentioned above. A good example of the alternatives England have is promising youngster Jadon Sancho who, after sitting on the bench versus Germany, surprisingly started the match versus Ukraine. He looked physically and mentally fresh and played very well! Indeed, the teams play yet another match on Wednesday after a few days’ rest, after a long season that started after a very short break for most players as Covid-19 changed the schedule in the big European leagues where both teams’ players earn their salaries.

How about home advantage then? England, Italy have Denmark are all of course all good teams but what they also have in common is that they have played most of their matches at homewhich has saved energy as they did not have to travel much. I believe these three teams advancing this far in the tournament is not a coincidence and do argue that home advantage is often not taken into account enough by the betting market in this match - or in international sports in general, including basketball and ice-hockey too. At a neutral stadium England would be approximately 52-53% favorites to win in ninety minutes but the match is played at legendary Wembley Stadium in front of amazingly fanatic English crowd. English football fans almost always support their team also in difficult moments which is not always the case in international football. Yes, of course there will be Danish fans too but still the home advantage is significant and means that in my opinion England have a 64-65% chance of winning this in 90 minutes. England's number one offensive weapon Harry Kane seems to finally be playing at least very close to his best level which, as all English Premier League fans know, is very high! I also want to add the fact that England, with a huge number of variations, are extremely dangerous in free kicks and corner kicks as they already proved versus Ukraine and did so many times in the past too. This is an important factor in big matches where both teams are good by raw class and defend well in general.

How about Denmark then? They have played well expect for their infamous opening match versus Finland which they lost 0-1 after the horrific heart attack Christiian Eriksen suffered to shock the football World and almost died on the pitch! In that match they struggled to break the Finnish “bus” which means an ultra-cautious strategy where the team defends with at least nine all or even with all the players close to their own penalty area. However, I will not put any emphasis on the Dane’s performance in the second after the shocking Ericksen incidence as the players were simply in no state of mind to play good football. After this match Denmark played pretty good match versus Belgium despite losing 1-2 to FIFA ranking leaders Belgium. They even dominated after the first half leading 1-0 at half time and could have scored two or even three goals. However, in the second half Belgium, led by amazingly skilled Kecin de Bruyne, were effective at capitalizing on their chances and the problems in Danish defense when facing the opponents were exposed ina brutal way. Yes, many of us saw Denmark completely crushing Wales in the first knockout phase battle but I must say Wales were very bad in this match and whilst Bale had a decent chance to score I will not give too much credit for the Danes despite the clear 4-0 victory. I believe England will move the ball faster than they did versus Ukraine which should open up the Danish defense sooner or later offering England the three of four chances they need to put the ball in to the net and go to the final. I also do believe the Danes will be more aggressive in defense than the Ukrainians as they do want to play "proper football" and not just defend or "park the bus" like Ukraine did versus England and I am positive they could see what happens if you let a top team with World-class players like Mount and Sterling dominate the ball. To name a vulnerable player the Danish captain Simon Kjaer, 32, who plays for Italian top team AC Milan is of course a good defender but not very fast anymore and this is a factor that should worry Danish fans and is a weakness England will aim to take advantage of. In their most recent match last Saturday the Danes were not particularly convincing versus Czech Republic and had they not scored an early goal and another one on the counter attack in the first half, the match might have turned out to be very different indeed.. I believe the rock-solid English defense won’t allow them many scoring chances. It is also worth noticing that the teams faced each other last October in a Nations League match in England and Denmark did win 1-0 but the match was very balanced overall despite Maguire being sent off on the 32' minute.. In fact England even created more scoring chances!

To sum up, typically for a high-stakes knockout phase match a cautious and low-scoring battle is expected. England will likely control the match and 1-0 for them a pretty probable final score.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

我将在这里坚持英格兰的状态，在上周六轻松赢得了对乌克兰的比赛中，英格兰至少赢了2球。我必须承认，正如我和许多其他专家在赛前所预料的那样，英格兰4-0的胜利不仅是因为英格兰的超级优秀，也因为乌克兰的弱项。我必须承认，也许4-0并不能完全反映比赛的情况，因为乌克兰在上半场确实有几次不错的进攻，而英格兰在上半场以1-0领先，下半场开始时2-0的进球似乎对他们的机会失去了真正的信心。正如所料，英格兰的防守很好，很稳固，他们的足球水平比上一场比赛又提高了。事实上，如果一支球队在比赛中进步最多，防守能力也比其他强队强，那么它一定是夺冠的有力争夺者。

英格兰队在这次比赛中确实踢了一场令人失望的比赛，那是由于两国之间历史上的竞争而在一场特殊的比赛中对阵苏格兰队。斯科特人能够比平时表现得更好，因为面对他们更大的邻居对他们来说意义重大。这是一场非常平衡的比赛，我必须说我对英格兰赢得比赛甚至进入决赛的机会有点怀疑。现在我相信他们有很好的机会在决赛中击败意大利或西班牙。然而,它几乎是不可能在每一场比赛发挥最高水平在这样的重大赛事,主要理由是英格兰的性能与质量的对手克罗地亚,克罗地亚人几乎没有机会得分的一个tournement最爱德国曾有一些机会,特别是穆勒,但英格兰是更好的球队，最后击败了乌克兰。

在我前面分析在英格兰与乌克兰比赛我写了很大的数量质量playersEngland整体——更高数量的顶级足球运动员比乌克兰,这个因素相关性的丹麦也一样,尽管他们当然比乌克兰很多更好的球队。英格兰队已经轮换了他们的阵容，并从板凳上引进了世界级的球员。在此我想强调的是，这也是我向粉丝提供价值选择的一个关键理由。我们还必须记住，由于Covid-19，球队被允许有5名替补，这有利于英格兰。一个很好的例子就是英格兰的年轻球员桑乔，他在对德国的比赛中坐在替补席上，在对乌克兰的比赛中出人意料地首发。他看起来身体和精神都很新鲜，踢得很好!事实上，这两支球队在休息了几天后，于周三又进行了一场比赛。由于新冠改变了两支球队球员都能挣到薪水的欧洲大型联赛的日程安排，在大多数球员短暂休息后开始了一个漫长的赛季。

那么主场优势呢?英格兰、意大利、丹麦当然都是优秀的球队，但他们也有一个共同点，那就是他们大部分比赛都在自己的主场进行，这节省了他们的精力，因为他们不需要经常出差。我相信这三支球队能在锦标赛中取得如此大的进步并非巧合，而且我认为，在这场比赛中，或者在一般的国际体育赛事中，包括篮球和冰球，主场优势往往没有得到充分考虑。在一个中立的球场，英格兰大约有52-53%的人有希望在90分钟内获胜，但这场比赛将在传奇的温布利球场进行，在令人惊讶的狂热的英国观众面前进行。英国球迷几乎总是在困难的时候支持他们的球队，而在国际足球中并不总是这样。是的，当然也会有丹麦球迷，但主场优势仍然很重要，这意味着在我看来英格兰有64-65%的机会在90分钟内赢得比赛。英格兰头号进攻武器哈里·凯恩似乎终于打到了他最好的水平，所有英超球迷都知道，这是非常高的!我还想补充一点，英格兰有着大量的变化，在任意球和角球上非常危险，他们在对阵乌克兰的比赛中已经证明了这一点，而且他们过去也做过很多次。这是一个重要的因素，在重大比赛中，两队都很好，防守很好。

那丹麦呢?克里斯蒂安·埃里克森(christian Eriksen)的可怕心脏病发作震惊了整个足球界，差点在球场上丧命。在那场比赛中，他们努力打破芬兰队的“巴士”战术，“巴士”指的是一种极端谨慎的战术，至少有九名队员全部防守，甚至所有队员都靠近自己的禁区。但是，在埃里克森事件发生后，我不会强调丹麦人在第二节的表现，因为球员们根本没有精神状态去踢好足球。在这场比赛之后，丹麦对比利时打了一场很好的比赛，尽管1-2输给了国际足联排名第一的比利时。他们甚至在上半场1-0领先后占据统治地位，本可以进2个甚至3个球。然而，下半场，在技术惊人的德布鲁尼的带领下，比利时队有效地利用了他们的机会，在面对对手时，丹麦防守的问题被残酷地暴露出来。是的，我们很多人都看到了丹麦在第一轮淘汰赛中彻底击败威尔士，但我必须说威尔士在这场比赛中表现非常糟糕，虽然贝尔有一个不错的进球机会，但我不会对丹麦给予太多的信任，尽管4-0大胜。我相信英格兰将会比对阵乌克兰的时候更快地跑动球，这迟早会打开丹麦的防线，给英格兰提供四分之三的机会将球送入球门，从而进入决赛。我也相信丹麦人将更积极地防御比乌克兰人,因为他们想玩“恰当的足球”,而不仅仅是保护或“公园巴士”像乌克兰和英格兰和我正面可以看到如果你让一个顶级球队与山和英镑等世界级的球员控制球。命名一个脆弱的丹麦球员西蒙·卡亚尔:船长,32岁效力于意大利顶级球队AC米兰当然是一个不错的防守者,但不是非常快了,这是一个因素,应该担心丹麦球迷和英格兰将致力于利用一个弱点。在上周六的最近一场比赛中，丹麦人并不是特别令人信服地对阵捷克共和国，如果他们不是在早些时候进了一个球，在上半场的反攻中又进了一个球，比赛可能会变得非常不同。我相信英格兰坚如磐石的防守不会给他们太多的得分机会。同样值得注意的是，两队去年10月在英格兰和丹麦的一场国际联赛中对阵，虽然马奎尔在第32分钟被罚下，但比赛总体上是非常平衡的。事实上，英格兰甚至创造了更多的进球机会!

总而言之，对于一场高风险淘汰赛，一场谨慎且得分低的比赛通常是意料之中的。英格兰很可能会控制这场比赛，他们很可能会以1-0的比分取得最后的比分。

-------免费猜胜负赢iPhone12活动-------

恭喜您收获100积分，可免费参加第二价段猜胜负赢大奖的活动！

活动入口请见APP首页->欧洲杯专区->全民猜胜负

错过第一阶段不要紧！还有机会赢取奖品~