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俄罗斯职业体育分析师,是欧洲最知名的分析师之一。
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A well argumented pick 克罗地亚vs西班牙

2021-06-28

比赛分析

欧预赛

已完赛

星期二2021-06-29 00:00

解读理由

This is where the Croatian train should stop, reaching its final destination.

World Cup 2018 finalists have been largely disappointing at the tournament, but the easy qualification rules made sure a win against primitive Scotland in game 3 of their group stage, would’ve been enough to progress to the round of 16.

While still searching for their game, Dalic’ team is going to face one of the EURO’20 favourites and this test seems to come too early for Croats.

To make the task more difficult, leading central defender Lovren had picked up a 2nd yellow card and earned suspension for the Spanish encounter; while left winger Perisic found a way to get C-19, against all the safety measures taken in the camp and around the Croatian team. Perisic loss is actually huge, if to trust the available stats - he is team’s leader for shots (7), key passes (7), number of touches in the penalty box (21; vlasic is in 2nd with 7 touches), 2nd with the 0.3 npxG “threat of taken shots”, 2nd behind Lovren for the number of aerial duels (17 v 13), 2nd for the number of crosses from open play.

But the biggest issue for Dalic is lack of balance in his side. There is an astronomical gap between the midfield triangle with wonderful Modric and other compartments like the limping and wasteful attack or the leaky defense. Speaking of the backline, Croats have yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding in all 3 of their games at the tournament.

I already posted an interesting insight preview on Spaniards before their demolition of poor Slovaks. Furia Roja are the unsung leaders of the tournament and they’ve been denied close media praise due to insanely low chances conversion.

While all the fans were crying tears of appreciation for Italy (narrowly scraping past Austria) and Netherlands (already packed bags and flew home), it was Spain that had played the best and most consistent football at this EURO. If Alvaro Morata wasn’t so wasteful in front of goal or the team had decent penalty takers (have missed 2 already at the tournament and 5 in a row), Spaniards would’ve topped a lot of other charts.

But even now, as it stands, Furia Roja is statistically dominating EURO for the highest possession - 69.3% (Germany 2nd with 60,8%); 3rd for shots per game (16) while Italy and Denmark have already played their round of 16 fixtures; 2nd for shots on target per game (6.3); 1st for fouled per game (14).

They also have the highest backline in the tournament and the best backline in terms of chances allowed in front of goal.

Bottom line, unlike Croats, Luis Enrique’s team is at full strength. They have great depth in the squad, balanced lineup, recognizable trademark football (my regards to all tiki-taka haters).

I am struggling to see how this wobbly Croatian team would be able to stop Spain from going to the quarter-final.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

这是克罗地亚应该停止的地方,止步八强。

2018年世界杯的决赛选手在很大程度上令人失望,但轻松的预选赛规则确保了他们在小组赛的第三场比赛中击败原始的苏格兰队,本可以晋级16强。

虽然仍在寻找他们的比赛,Dalic的球队将面对欧洲20大热门之一,这个考验似乎太早了克罗地亚。

让比赛更加困难的是,主力中后卫洛夫伦领到了第二张黄牌,在与西班牙的比赛中被禁赛。而左边锋佩里西奇却设法拿到了C-19,尽管营地和克罗地亚队周围采取了各种安全措施。佩里西奇的损失实际上是巨大的,如果相信可用的数据——他在射门(7次),关键传球(7次),禁区内的触球次数(21次;弗拉西奇以7次触球排名第二),以0.3 npxG的“抢断威胁”排名第二,在洛夫伦之后的空中格斗次数排名第二(17比13),在空位传球次数排名第二。

但对达利克来说最大的问题是他的队伍缺乏平衡。中场三角的莫德里奇非常出色,而其他的区域,如软弱浪费的进攻和漏洞百出的防守,之间有一个天文数字的差距。说到后防线,克罗地亚还没有保持一场不失球,他们在世界杯上的三场比赛都是失球。

在西班牙人击败斯洛伐克人之前,我已经发布了一个有趣的预览。

当所有的球迷都在为意大利(险胜奥地利)和荷兰(已经收拾好行李飞回家了)而流泪时,西班牙队在本届欧洲杯上踢得最好、最稳定。如果阿尔瓦罗·莫拉塔在进球前不是那么浪费,或者球队有像样的点球球员(已经错过了2次,连续5次),西班牙人将会在其他很多榜单上名列前茅。

但即使是现在,从统计数据上看,西班牙仍然占据着欧洲杯最高的控球率——69.3%(德国以608%排在第二位);场均射门次数排名第三(16次),意大利和丹麦已经打了16场比赛;每场命中目标次数第二(6.3次);场均犯规次数第一(14次)。

他们的后防线也是世界杯上最高的,在进球机会方面也是最好的。

最重要的是,与克罗地亚人不同,路易斯·恩里克的球队是全员上阵。他们有很强的阵容深度,平衡的阵容,可识别的标志性足球(我向所有仇视提基-塔卡的人致敬)。

我很想知道这支摇摆不定的克罗地亚队如何能阻止西班牙进入四分之一决赛。

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