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Confident stats based pick on this game 欧洲杯西班牙VS斯洛伐克

2021-06-23

比赛分析

欧预赛

已完赛

星期四2021-06-24 00:00

解读理由

Spain is not the sort of team you’d be fully confident when backing them as favorites on the handicap. Luis Enrique’s version of Furia Roja is not exactly “furia” - after opening 2 rounds the Spanish side topped many statistical charts:

1) for possession (obviously)

2) average pressing intensity (PPDA) - 5.8

Ultimately PPDA = number of passes allowed in the opposition's defensive half, interceptions+tackles+fouls.

The greater the offensive pressing brought by a team - the lower the value of the PPDA will be.

Spain is 1st with 5.8

Portugal is 2nd with 10.7

3) the height of the backline (!. Spaniards are 1st with 47.5 meters. That underlines how dominant the team is)

4) the “expected threat” metric according to a resource called “markstats” - Spain is 2nd behind the Netherlands for the best attack. And the best in terms of chances allowed in front of their goal. Don’t mind the cyrilic symbols - xT is allowed chances (the left scale) and xT (horizontal scale at the bottom) is chances created.


西班牙不是那种你会完全有信心支持他们作为让点热门球队的球队。 Luis Enrique 的 Furia Roja 版本并不完全是“furia”——在开场两轮后,西班牙队在许多统计图表中名列前茅:

1)为了占有(显然)

2) 平均按压强度 (PPDA) - 5.8 最终 PPDA = 对方防守半场允许的传球次数,拦截+铲球+犯规。 球队带来的进攻压力越大——PPDA的价值就会越低。 西班牙以 5.8 位列第一 葡萄牙以 10.7 位居第二

3) 后防线的高度(!。西班牙人以 47.5 米排名第一。这突显了球队的统治力)

4)根据名为“markstats”的资源的“预期威胁”指标 - 西班牙在最佳进攻方面排名第二,仅次于荷兰。并且在他们的目标面前允许的机会方面是最好的。不要介意西里尔符号 - xT 是允许的机会(左边的比例)和 xT(底部的水平比例)是创造了机会。

5) Spain has the biggest difference between xG (created chances) and scored goals on the tournament


5)西班牙在比赛中xG(创造机会)和进球数之间的差异最大

While they had created chances worthy of 5 goals, just 1 was actually scored.

To make a long story short, Spain is one of the best teams in the tournament, though their results and feedback in the media do not suggest so.

Tonight they are going to be facing, arguably, the weakest team in the group - Slovakia. A side with some overaged leaders (Kucka, Hamsik, Hubocan) and basically just 1 world class player - central defender Skriniar. Slovaks surprised many by taking 3 points in the opening round, but they were seriously helped by Poland’s red card to get the 2-1 result. In the following fixture Sweden had the upper hand and secured a relatively deserved, albeit narrow, victory.

Spain is by far the biggest test Slovak’s have had at the tournament. And while a draw result will be enough to take the team through the round of 16, it looks like a mission impossible given the squads quality difference and also the gameplay supremacy based on the two opening rounds of the tournament. Spain is playing this one at in Sevilla with the advantage of home supporters and nothing but a win will work for them.

I am expecting Luis Enrique men to finally convert their on the pitch advantage into goals.


虽然他们创造了 5 个进球的机会,但实际上只有 1 个进球。 长话短说,西班牙是本届锦标赛中最好的球队之一,尽管他们的成绩和媒体反馈并不表明如此。

今晚他们将面对可以说是小组中最弱的球队——斯洛伐克。有一些超龄领袖(库卡、哈姆西克、胡博坎)和基本上只有一名世界级球员 - 中后卫斯克里尼亚尔的球队。斯洛伐克队首轮连得3分出乎很多人的意料,但波兰队的红牌严重帮助他们取得了2-1的成绩。在接下来的比赛中,瑞典占据了上风,取得了一场相对应得的胜利,尽管是微弱的胜利。

迄今为止,西班牙是斯洛伐克人在比赛中所面临的最大考验。虽然平局结果足以让球队通过 16 轮比赛,但鉴于球队的素质差异以及基于锦标赛两轮首轮比赛的游戏优势,这似乎是一项不可能完成的任务。西班牙队在塞维利亚队以主场支持者的优势进行了这场比赛,只有一场胜利对他们有用。

我期待路易斯恩里克球员最终将他们在球场上的优势转化为进球。

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