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英国亚马逊员工,常年现场看各级别联赛,非常熟悉球队,有十多年经验盈利丰厚。
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Poland is able to get qualification? 波兰能否晋级?

2021-06-23

比赛分析

欧预赛

已完赛

星期四2021-06-24 00:00

解读理由

It's early call from me, but odds on Poland are slashing down very fast and for sure we will not see such odds prior to the kick off.

This is deciding match in this group. Poland needs 3 points to get qualification into knockout stage, for Sweden draw is good enough result. In that case I see bigger motivation for Poland.

Obviously, Poland have squad with potential for knockout stage. Almost all experts around the world expected their qualification. Unfortunately, they made only one point in first two games. They lost 1:2 against Slovakia in opening match where quality was on low level. According to the expected goals scored model Poland deserved for better result as they had 1.43, Slovakia only 0.42. Atmosphere was bad after that loss, but everything changed in Sevilla. Poland played on away against big favorite Spain and they made 1 point after good 1:1 match. In comparison to the opening match Poland looked much sharper, much more convincing against Spain. Lewandowski scored against Spain and now pressure on him is not that big because he scored finally. Maybe he will play more freely now. In overall Poland against Spain played very solid at both sides of the pitch and if they keep to play on that level they have good chances to win here.

Sweden have a lot of luck in opening match against Spain - they had only 15% ball possession, only 4 shots and 2.35 expected goals conceded, but somehow they avoided loss (0:0). In second round Sweden won 1:0 against Slovakia in low-quality encounter. Sweden deserved for 3 points, but they had problems with finishing product and they scored goal from penalty kick. I'm not impressed by Sweden at all. Sweden not played so far on the level which Poland showed against Spain.

I don't see Sweden win here. Poland with great chances to get a good result and maybe as well qualification into next round.


波兰的指数正在迅速下降,而且在开球前我们肯定不会看到这样的指数。

这是本组的决定性比赛。波兰需要3分才能晋级淘汰赛,对瑞典来说平局已经足够了。在这种情况下,我看到了波兰更大的动力。

很明显,波兰队有进入淘汰赛阶段的潜力。世界上几乎所有的专家都希望获得他们的资格。不幸的是,他们在前两场比赛中只得到一分。他们在首场比赛中以1:2输给了斯洛伐克,质量偏低。根据预期进球模型,波兰理应获得更好的结果,因为他们有 1.43,斯洛伐克只有 0.42。在那场失利之后,气氛很糟糕,但塞维利亚的一切都变了。波兰队客场对阵热门西班牙队,他们在1:1的比赛中取得1分。与首场比赛相比,波兰看起来更加犀利,对西班牙的比赛更有说服力。莱万多夫斯基进球对阵西班牙,现在他的压力没有那么大,因为他终于进球了。也许他现在会玩得更自由。总体而言,波兰队对阵西班牙队在球场两侧的表现都非常稳定,如果他们继续保持这个水平,他们就有很大的机会在这里获胜。

瑞典在首场对阵西班牙的比赛中运气很好——他们只有15%的控球率,只有4次射门和2.35个预期失球,但他们以某种方式避免了输球(0:0)。第二轮瑞典在低质量的比赛中以1:0战胜斯洛伐克。瑞典队应得的3分,但他们在完成比赛时遇到了问题,他们点球得分。我对瑞典一点印象都没有。到目前为止,瑞典的表现还没有达到波兰对阵西班牙的水平。

我不认为瑞典可以最终取胜。波兰有很好的机会至少不败,也许还有资格进入下一轮。

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