Argentina have been disappointment in international football for years now taking into account the starts they have in the team Yes, we all know they have Messi, Di Maria and Aguero but somehow these players just don't reach the same level of play they play at in their respective clubs. They have changed their team a lot since World Cup 2018 but weirdly lack creativity to create enough good scoring chances. Missing Lo Celso hurts Argentina quite a lot. He  played well with Messi moving throughout attacking front. I think the betting market does not fully understand this. Argentina were nothing special in their most recent match versus Uruguay winning 1-0. Uruguay even had more ball possession and attacks in the match but Argentina did have more scoring attempts. Against Chile Argentina played a disappointing draw 1-1 but were the more dominant team. For sure they clear favorites in today's match played in Brazil but I think value is on Paraguay or draw. 

Paraguay don't have global super starts but especially Almiron, Kaku Romero and Angel Romero very good players indeed! Paraguay totally dominated Bolivia in their most recent match having almost 80% ball possession and created stunning 34 scoring chances. They could have won 5-0. They did lose to heavy favorites Brazil 0-2 but the match was pretty balanced as a whole. Paraguay have a well-organised defense and I'm expecting a low-scoring match - even 0-0 would not be a surprise.