Leeds United VS Luton Town

Leeds welcome Luton for this English Championship round 17 battle at Elland Road early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the second tier of English football. It is clearly the best 2nd tier in the world! A game of good quality by this league's standard's is expected here! Most importantly, us serious bettors - with a long-term profit in mind - have yet another very interesting betting opportunity here! My fans and I have won 10/14 last picks betting on this league! Firstly, I want to mention according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Leeds are the bigger team here – but not by a huge margin percentage-wise! Certainly the squad market values are more balanced than the odds.. Indeed, the Leeds players have an estimated total market value of some 174 million euros. This is, however, too high in my expert opinion. The Luton squad is valued at only around 101 million. This is a little too low though.. Some 115 would be a more accurate numbers. Let's remember that Luton played in the Premier League season! They were not even the worst team in this - league which clearly the best one in the world. Luton finished in 18th/20 place - taking six points less than Nottingham, who finished in 17th place.. Leeds, on the other hand, were beaten by Southampton in the Promotion Finals, despite being favourites to be promoted to the first tier - and overvalued on the betting market.. Yes, Luton have had a disappointing start to the season – there is no denying this fact.. As a result I have lowered their power ranking - but not significantly! The sophisticated power ranking reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven – excluding "special" factors – such as motivation and fatigue caused by a tough schedule.. 

The bookmakers have undoubtedly overreacted to Luton's lame early season results - and as a professional bettors I will, of course, take advantage of this!   Indeed, despite the fact that Leeds are the better team here, the odds of around 1.40-1.42 on the home win offered by the bookies are way too low! We will take the Luton +1.5 goals handicap option at lucrative odds!  Luton are only in 16th place in this league with a total of 24 clubs. However, with the many quality players in the squad they can improve in all areas of the game and I expect them to finish in the top-10.. Their score difference after 16 games is 18:26. However, their number of expected goals (xG) per game is 1.32 and the number of expected goals allowed (xGA) per match is 1.39 – much smaller than the actual number of 1.63! Leeds, on the other hand, are in 4th place with 32 points. They have scored 28 goals and have allowed 12 goals. Their number of xG per game is 1.60 and xGA per match is 0.89.

Both teams have won two of their last three games. In their last game Leeds were priced around 1.80 to beat Swansea on the road. They took a 4-3 win but I was not impressed with the way they defended, lacking discipline. The hosts recorded more shots on goal, Leeds managed more goal attempts. Before this Leeds were priced below 1.30 to take a win over QPR; the current rock-bottom team, at home. Leeds easily won 2-0 but did not have to play very well as QPR were very poor - especially offensively.. On round 14 Leeds were priced around 1.80 (at the time of kickoff) to beat Millwall on the road but lost 0-1. Leeds did record one more shot on goal though (4-3) - and also generated a little more in xG. Luton, on the other hand, defeated Hull 1-0 at home in their last game, despite not being at their best.. Both teams recorded only two shots on goal in this pretty defensive game. Before this Luton were disappointing, losing 1-5 to Luton on the road. Luton were heavy underdogs on the betting market though.. Most importantly, the final score is hugely misleading! Middlesborough recorded only three more shots on goal – 6-3 to be precise.. The xG numbers were 1.56-0.48. In round 14 Luton took a 1-0 win over Cardiff in front of their loyal fans. The xG numbers were pretty clear in Luton's favour - 1.34-0.65 to be precise.

GOOD LUCK!

利兹联队VS卢顿镇

北京时间周四凌晨，利兹队将在埃兰路迎接卢顿队的第17轮英超之战。这是英国足球的第二梯队。这显然是世界上最好的二线球队！期待一场符合联盟标准的高质量比赛！最重要的是，我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——在这里还有另一个非常有趣的投注机会！我和我的球迷在这个联赛中赢了10/14 ！首先，我想说的是，根据一个著名的、受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，利兹联在这里是更大的球队——但在百分比上并不是很大的差距！当然，球队市场价值比赔率更平衡。事实上，利兹联球员的总市值估计约为1.74亿欧元。然而，在我的专业意见中，这太高了。卢顿队的身价仅为1.01亿英镑。这个有点太低了…大约115是更准确的数字。让我们记住卢顿踢过英超！他们甚至不是这个联盟中最差的球队，而这个联盟显然是世界上最好的球队。卢顿排在第18 /20名，比排在第17名的诺丁汉少了6分。另一方面，利兹联队在升级决赛中被南安普顿击败，尽管他们是最有希望升入第一梯队的球队——而且在博彩市场上被高估了。是的，卢顿本赛季开局令人失望——这是不可否认的事实。结果我降低了他们的力量排名——但不是很明显！复杂的实力排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，包括最好的11名首发球员，不包括“特殊”因素，如动力和紧张赛程引起的疲劳。

毫无疑问，博彩公司对卢顿赛季初的糟糕结果反应过度了——作为一名职业赌徒，我当然会利用这一点！事实上，尽管利兹联在这里是更好的球队，但博彩公司提供的主场获胜的赔率约为1.40-1.42，这实在太低了！我们将采取卢顿+1.5个进球障碍的选择在有利可图的赔率！卢顿在这个联赛中只排在第16位，总共有24家俱乐部。然而，有这么多优秀的球员，他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高，我希望他们能进入前十。16场比赛后，他们的比分差距是18分26秒。然而，他们每场比赛的预期进球数（xG）是1.32，每场比赛的预期进球数（xGA）是1.39——比实际的1.63少得多！另一方面，利兹联队以32分排名第四。他们进了28球，丢了12球。他们每场比赛的xG数为1.60，每场比赛的xGA数为0.89。

两队在最近三场比赛中都赢了两场。在上一场比赛中，利兹联队客场击败斯旺西的价格在1.8英镑左右。他们以4-3获胜，但我对他们的防守方式印象不深，缺乏纪律。东道主的射门次数更多，利兹的射门次数也更多。在此之前，利兹联的定价低于1.30，以击败QPR；目前垫底的球队，在主场。利兹2-0轻松取胜，但并不需要打得很好，因为QPR的表现很差——尤其是进攻端。在第14轮比赛中，利兹联队在客场击败米尔沃尔的价格约为1.80英镑（开球时），但最终以0比1输掉了比赛。利兹联的射门也多了一次（4-3），而且在上一场比赛中也多了一些。另一方面，卢顿在上一场比赛中主场1-0击败了赫尔城，尽管他们状态不佳。在这场漂亮的防守比赛中，两队都只射门两次。在此之前，卢顿令人失望，客场1-5输给了卢顿。卢顿队在博彩市场上处于劣势。最重要的是，最终的分数是非常具有误导性的！米德尔斯堡只射门3次，准确地说是6比3。xG值为1.56 ~ 0.48。在第14轮比赛中，卢顿在他们忠实的球迷面前1-0战胜了卡迪夫。xG的数据很明显对卢顿有利——准确地说是1.34-0.65。

好运！