HIFK vs Honka

Honka have been a major disappointment so far this season and have grabbed only six points. I ranked them as fourth best team before the season after the dominant HJK, Kups and Inter but based on what they have shown so far even making it in the top6 and to the Championship Group at the season looks far from certain indeed. I often bet on good teams that have been unlucky in terms of expected goals, injuries or some other valid reason but this is not really the case with Honka. They have been very poor offensively despite some good strikers - at least on paper. They lack imagination and variations to create enough quality scoring chances. There have also been rumors about Honka not having the best team spirit at the moment.They did beat AC Oulu 2-0 four days ago but I was not excited about their performance. First of all Oulu have zero points so far and will probably relegate at the end of the season. They are perhaps not as bad as the standings suggest but still Honka should have dominated them. The team from Espoo had only four scoring attempts in that match and two shot on goal. Ball possession was almost 50-50%. I do believe they will improve a little but it is hard to see a major improvement unless they buy now players.

HIFK on the other hand have been a positive surprise this season. They have lost just one match this season in Veikkausliiga on sit at fifth place. They played well in Kotka versus KTP in their most recent match last week winning 2-0. Kotka is never on easy place to play in - even for the big teams. HIFK have a very well organised defense and if they had a few more good offensive players even a top4 place might be possible. HIFK suffered a clear  1-4 defeat versus Inter May 29 but the match was pretty balanced and the score is not justified. However, Inter are a top3 team and I believe the betting market gives too much emphasis to that match. Do not get me wrong Honka are slim favorites in this match in at Bolt Arena in downtown Helsinki but value is on HIFK. HIFK have the best fans of all teams here in Finland and finally a limited number of them will be supporting them - despite the ongoing EURO 2020 A big boost for sure and something that perhaps the betting market does not fully understand.

A draw is pretty likely here and we go for HIFK +0.5 goals