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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A FINE match to bet on! 荷甲 埃因霍温VS兹沃勒

2024-10-26

比赛分析

解读理由

PSV Eindhoven VS PEC Zwolle



PSV welcome Zwolle for this Eredivisie round 10 battle at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the 1st tier of Dutch football. The level of this league is of very good level by European standards - but still not top-5. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of only mediocre quality by this league's standards here. The main reason for that is the gigantic difference in class between the two teams. I would be extremely surprised Zwolle were to get even a point here. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com PSV are the bigger team here – by a massive margin. Indeed, the PSV players have an estimated total market value of some ... million euros. The Zwolle squad is valued at only a little over 20 million - which is still a bit too high. PSV have won the last 17 games between the two teams, many of them by a very clear margin. In February PSV crushed Zwolle 7-1 on the road! We will take the PSV -2.5 goals handicap, odds of around 1.70 are widely available on the betting market. My fans and I have a 63% chance of winning.


PSV are a pretty dominant team in the Netherlands at the moment! They won the championship last season with a stunning 91 points! Their score difference was phenomenal – 111:21 and they lost just one Eredivisie game. Zwolle, on the other hand, finished in 12th place with 36 points but will most probably do worse this season.. PSV have won all nine games this season scoring an impressive 29 goals! They have allowed just six goals in this league. Both numbers are the best in this league. Zwolle are in 15th place with only eight points in their pocket and might well be relegated at the end of the season. I do not see them having any "tools" to challenge PSV here.. Yes, they have conceded "only" 13 goals but I want to highlight that their number of expected goals allowed is much bigger! PSV should have way more skill and pace for the Zwolle defence to deal with.. They even played in the UEFA Champions League Playoffs last season, losing to Dortmund after a pretty balanced battle.. In their last game they were big underdogs in a Champions League 3rd round clash, priced around 10.00 to win against PSG in Paris but took a 1-1 draw! PSG did have several more goal attempts though but let's remember that they are one of the biggest teams in the world.. Before this they beat AZ Alkmaar, a strong team, 3-1 on thee road after a terrific performance. They had 12 more goal attempts than the hosts and allowed Alkmaar only two shots on goal. The xG numbers were 1.98-0.36 in PSV's favour. Zwolle lost their last game to NAC Breda 1-2 as clear favourites on the betting market. It was a lame performance from Zwolle. The visitors had more goal attempts, shots on target and shots off goal. Breda also generated more in xG – 2.44-0.72 to be precise!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

埃因霍温VS兹沃勒



北京时间周日凌晨,埃因霍温将在埃因霍温的飞利浦球场迎来对兹沃勒的比赛。这是荷兰足球的第一梯队。按照欧洲的标准,这个联赛的水平是非常好的,但仍然不是前五名。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待的是,按照联赛的标准,这场比赛的质量只能是平庸的。主要原因是两支球队在级别上的巨大差异。如果兹沃勒能在这里得到一分,我会感到非常惊讶。根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com,埃因霍温是这里更大的球队——以巨大的优势。事实上,埃因霍温球员的总市值估计为……百万欧元。兹沃勒的阵容价值只有2000万多一点,这仍然有点太高了。埃因霍温在两队之间的最近17场比赛中都取得了胜利,其中很多都是以非常明显的优势取胜。2月,埃因霍温客场7:1大胜兹沃勒!我们将采用埃因霍温-2.5球的赔率,在博彩市场上,赔率约为1.70。我和我的粉丝有63%的机会赢。


埃因霍温目前在荷兰是一支非常有统治力的球队!他们上赛季以惊人的91分赢得了冠军!他们的比分差距是惊人的——111:21,他们只输了一场荷甲比赛。另一方面,兹沃勒以36分排名第12,但本赛季很可能会更糟。埃因霍温赢得了本赛季所有的9场比赛,打进了令人印象深刻的29球!他们在这个联赛中只丢了6个球。这两个数据都是联盟中最好的。兹沃勒目前仅积8分排在第15位,很可能在赛季结束后降级。我不认为他们有任何“工具”来挑战埃因霍温。是的,他们“只”丢了13个球,但我想强调的是,他们的预期失球数量要多得多!埃因霍温应该有更多的技术和速度来对付兹沃勒的防守。上赛季他们甚至还参加了欧冠联赛的季后赛,在一场势均力敌的比赛后输给了多特蒙德。在上一场比赛中,他们在欧冠第3轮的比赛中处于劣势,在巴黎与巴黎圣日耳曼的比赛中,他们的价格在10美元左右,但最终以1比1战平!巴黎圣日耳曼确实有更多的进球尝试,但让我们记住他们是世界上最大的球队之一。在此之前,他们在三场比赛中以3:1击败了强队阿尔克马尔。他们比东道主多射门12次,只让阿尔克马尔射正了2次。xG值为1.98-0.36,对埃因霍温有利。兹沃勒在上一场比赛中以1比2输给了NAC Breda,成为博彩市场上的热门球队。兹沃勒的表演太差劲了。客队有更多的进球尝试,射正和射偏。布雷达也产生了更多的xG - 2.44-0.72准确地说!

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