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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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More PROFIT? $$$ 法乙 格勒诺布VS梅斯

2024-10-18

比赛分析

解读理由

Grenoble VS Metz



Grenoble host Metz for this French Ligue 2 round 9 clash Stade des Alpes early Saturday morning Beijing time.. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-time profit in mind – have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here. A match of strong level by this league’s standards is expected here. Grenoble performed relatively well last season, ending up in 11th place with a decent 51 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was bigger. They scored 43 goals and allowed 44 goals. At the moment they are in 6th place with a fine 13 points. Metz played very poorly last season and were relegated from Ligue 1 (back) to Ligue 2. Yes, they do have a fine chance of finishing in the top-4 – or even top-2. However, I do not rate Metz among the very best teams in Ligue 2, at least not at the moment. They have grabbed 15 points and have scored 18 goals – and conceded nine goals. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is much smaller than 18. Yes, Metz do have an edge over Grenoble in all areas of the game but the margin is not big. Even so, with the expected lineups, taking the substantial home advantage into account, Metz deserve to be only very slim favourites here. The current odds of around 2.10 on the away win offered by the biggets bookies with the largest stake limits are way too low! Let’s not forget that Grenoble have not lost any home games this season. The Grenoble +0-5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here. They play tactically very smart football, have a skilled head coach and are. Most importantly, a much better team than the list of players would suggest!

In their last game Grenoble locked horns with a strong Swiss team, Servette, at a neutral location. It was a friendly game. Before this Grenoble were the underdogs on the betting market against Rodez away from home. Grenoble were, however, far from their best – especially offensively – and Rodez did deserve the three points. They played above their usual level. I will not overreact to this lame performance. Before this Grenoble were excellent, crushing a dangerous team, Clermont 3-0 at home. Clermont played in the first tier for many years before being relegated. Grenoble recorded several more goal attempts and shots on goal. Clermont’s N’Diaye was sent off in the 58th minute though. The score was 1-0 at the time of the red card. In round 6 Grenoble lost to Ajaccio 0-2 at Michel Moretti Stadium. The match was, however, somewhat balanced as a whole. Ajaccio had two more shots on goal, but Grenoble recorded two more shots off target and also had 56% ball possession. In round 4 Grenoble swept past Martigues 4-0 on the road. The final score does flatter Grenoble but they did record seven more goal attempts than Martigues, proving that they are capable of scoring more goals per game than they did last season. Martigues’ S. Solvet was sent off in the 44th minute in this game. Metz have won three of their last five matches. In their most recent competitive game they beat Amiens, currently in 9th place, 3-2 at home. Metz were priced around 1.70 to win by the bookies but were only moderately the better team on the pitch as a whole. Metz recorded seven shots on goal – Amiens’ number was four. Before this Metz were priced around 1.80-1.90 (at the time of kick off) to beat Troyes on the road. However, they were disappointing – despite a very high ball possession %. Troyes recorded five goal attempts and allowed Metz only two. The hosts really made Metz pay for being so imbalanced on the pitch. Let’s not forget that Troyes are the rock-bottom team at the moment – with just four points in their pocket. In round 6 Metz crushed Martigues 6-0 at home as big favourites, priced around 1.35 to win on the betting market. This result, unsurprisingly, received a lot of media attention and quite possibly still affects the odds to some extent. I want to highlight that the final score hugely flatters Metz as they totaled “only” nine shots on goal. Metz recorded 18 goal attempts, Martigues, despite being incredibly leaky defensive, did have their chances to score – 12 attempts to be precise.



GOOD LUCK!



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格勒诺布尔VS梅斯



北京时间周六凌晨,格勒诺布尔将在阿尔卑斯球场迎战法甲联赛第9轮的梅斯队。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者——心中有长期的利润——在这里有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会。按照这个联赛的标准,这将是一场高水平的比赛。格勒诺布尔上赛季表现相对较好,以51分的成绩排在第11位。然而,他们的期望值(xPTS)更大。他们进了43球,丢了44球。目前他们以13分的好成绩排在第6位。梅斯上赛季踢得很差,从法甲(回到)降级到法甲。是的,他们确实有很大的机会进入前四甚至前二。然而,我并不认为梅斯是法甲最好的球队之一,至少目前不是。他们拿到了15分,进了18个球,丢了9个球。然而,他们的预期目标数量(xG)远小于18个。是的,梅斯在比赛的各个方面都比格勒诺布尔有优势,但差距并不大。即便如此,考虑到预期的阵容,考虑到主场的巨大优势,梅斯在这里应该只是非常渺茫的热门。目前由最大的赌注限制的最大博彩公司提供的客场胜利的赔率约为2.10,这太低了!别忘了格勒诺布尔本赛季没有输过一场主场比赛。格勒诺布尔+0-5的进球劣势显然是明智的赌注。他们在战术上踢得很聪明,有一个技术娴熟的主教练。最重要的是,这是一支比名单上的球员更好的球队!

在上一场比赛中,格勒诺布尔队在一个中立的位置与强大的瑞士球队塞尔维特队发生了冲突。这是一场友谊赛。在此之前,格勒诺布尔队在客场对阵罗德斯的比赛中处于劣势。然而,格勒诺布尔远没有达到最佳状态,尤其是在进攻端,而罗德斯确实配得上三分。他们比平时打得好。我不会对这蹩脚的表演反应过度。在此之前格勒诺布尔表现出色,在主场3-0击败了一支危险的球队克莱蒙。克莱蒙在降级前在一线队踢了很多年。格勒诺布尔记录了更多的进球尝试和射门。克莱蒙特的恩迪亚耶在第58分钟被罚下。红牌出示时比分是1比0。在第六轮比赛中,格勒诺布尔在米歇尔·莫雷蒂球场0-2不敌阿雅克肖。不过,这场比赛总体上还是比较平衡的。阿雅克肖有2次射正,但格勒诺布尔有2次射偏,控球率也达到56%。在第四轮比赛中,格勒诺布尔队在客场以4:0大胜马蒂格斯队。最后的比分确实让格勒诺布尔高兴,但他们的进球次数比马蒂斯多了7次,这证明他们有能力比上赛季进更多的球。本场比赛,马蒂斯的s·索尔维特在第44分钟被红牌罚下。梅斯队最近五场比赛赢了三场。在最近的正式比赛中,他们主场以3比2击败了目前排名第九的亚眠。博彩公司对梅斯的胜率定价在1.70左右,但从整体上看,梅斯只是稍微好一些。梅斯有7次射门,亚眠只有4次。在此之前,梅斯的价格在1.80-1.90左右(开球时),以击败特鲁瓦。然而,他们的表现令人失望——尽管他们的控球率很高。特鲁瓦有5次射门机会,只让梅斯有2次机会。东道主确实为梅斯在球场上的不平衡付出了代价。别忘了特鲁瓦现在是垫底的球队,他们只拿到了4分。在第6轮比赛中,梅斯在主场以6比0击败了马蒂格斯,成为最大的热门,在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.35英镑。不出所料,这一结果受到了媒体的广泛关注,很可能在某种程度上仍然影响着获胜的几率。我想强调的是,最终的比分让梅斯非常高兴,因为他们总共“只有”9次射门。梅斯有18次进球尝试,马提格斯尽管防守漏洞很大,但也有机会得分——准确地说是12次尝试。



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