There’s a huge quality difference here. Kazakhstan is currently one of the weakest teams in this tournament. None of their players compete in the major European leagues, with most playing in their domestic league or Russia. Their best player, midfielder Zaynutdinov, is the only one in Turkey, playing for Beşiktaş.

The lack of competitiveness is evident, especially when Kazakhstan faces strong European teams, as they don’t play in top European competitions with their clubs. They’re virtually relegated from this group, sitting firmly at the bottom with just 1 point after three rounds. That point came from a very fortunate 0-0 draw against Norway, where Kazakhstan didn’t register a single shot on target, generating just 0.06 expected goals, while Norway created 1.69 expected goals from 19 shots but failed to capitalize on their chances.

Their other games have followed a similar pattern, with Kazakhstan offering little threat. Austria dominated them 4-0 with 29 shots and 3.06 expected goals, while Kazakhstan managed just 1 shot on target and 0.14 expected goals. The game against Slovenia was no different, losing 3-0 after being completely outplayed. Slovenia generated 3.33 expected goals from 16 shots, while Kazakhstan managed just 2 shots on target and 0.35 expected goals.

Kazakhstan’s performances in this tournament have been dreadful, and in every match, they deserved to lose by at least 3-4 goals. They simply lack the quality to compete with teams like Austria, Norway, and Slovenia. Looking at their recent international matches, they’ve suffered defeats to much weaker teams like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg, and Greece.

On the other hand, Slovenia needs a win here to stay in contention for a top-2 finish and avoid relegation. They’ve been impressive in the EURO, avoiding defeat in all official games and only losing to Portugal on penalties. Slovenia was unbeaten since November 2023, when they beat Denmark 2-1, and that unbeaten run now stretches to 12 games, including results against strong sides like Portugal (twice), Denmark, the USA, and England. However, they recently suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Norway, with Haaland and Sorloth delivering outstanding performances.

Slovenia boasts a solid squad, with standout players like Sesko, who has been in fantastic form recently. He scored a hat-trick in the 3-0 victory over Kazakhstan and netted the goal in the 1-1 draw against Austria. Sesko is also performing well at club level, scoring 6 goals in 9 games for RB Leipzig across all competitions. While he’s Slovenia's main threat, he’s not the only one. Goalkeeper Oblak has also been in great form this season.

Slovenia comfortably beat Kazakhstan 3-0 just a month ago, and nothing has changed since then. In fact, Slovenia is likely even more motivated after their defeat to Norway. The quality difference is massive, and I expect another easy game for Slovenia. In the EURO qualifiers in 2023, Slovenia also beat Kazakhstan twice (2-1, 2-1), outplaying them and generating double the expected goals in both matches.

这里的质量差别很大。哈萨克斯坦目前是本届杯赛中实力最弱的球队之一。他们的球员都没有参加欧洲主要联赛，大多数都在国内联赛或俄罗斯踢球。他们最好的球员，中场球员扎伊努迪诺夫，是唯一一个在土耳其的球员，效力于别<s:1>伊克塔伊队。

缺乏竞争力是显而易见的，特别是当哈萨克斯坦面对强大的欧洲球队时，因为他们没有随俱乐部参加欧洲顶级赛事。他们实际上已经从这个小组中降级了，三轮过后仅积1分稳稳地排在最后一名。这一分来自于一场非常幸运的0-0战平挪威队的比赛，挪威队一脚射门都没有射正，预期进球只有0.06个，挪威队19次射门创造了1.69个预期进球，但没能抓住机会。

他们的其他比赛也遵循了类似的模式，哈萨克斯坦几乎没有构成威胁。奥地利以29次射门和3.06个预期进球以4比0领先，而哈萨克斯坦只有1次射门和0.14个预期进球。与斯洛文尼亚的比赛也没有什么不同，在完全落后的情况下以0比3输掉了比赛。斯洛文尼亚16次射门产生了3.33个预期进球，而哈萨克斯坦只有2次射正，预期进球0.35个。

哈萨克斯坦在本届比赛中的表现非常糟糕，每场比赛他们都应该输掉至少3-4个球。他们缺乏与奥地利、挪威和斯洛文尼亚等球队竞争的实力。看看他们最近的国际比赛，他们输给了亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、卢森堡和希腊等实力弱得多的球队。

另一方面，斯洛文尼亚需要在这里取得一场胜利，以继续争夺前2名并保级。他们在欧洲杯上的表现令人印象深刻，在所有正式比赛中都避免了失败，只在点球大战中输给了葡萄牙。斯洛文尼亚自2023年11月以2比1击败丹麦以来保持不败，目前这一不败纪录已经延伸至12场，其中包括对阵葡萄牙（两次）、丹麦、美国和英格兰等强队。然而，他们最近0 - 3惨败给挪威，哈兰德和索洛斯表现出色。

斯洛文尼亚拥有一支稳定的球队，拥有像塞斯科这样的杰出球员，他最近的状态非常好。他在3-0战胜哈萨克斯坦的比赛中上演帽子戏法，在1-1战平奥地利的比赛中打进一球。Sesko在俱乐部的表现也很好，在所有比赛中为RB莱比锡出战9场，打入6球。虽然他是斯洛文尼亚的主要威胁，但他并不是唯一的威胁。门将奥布拉克本赛季的状态也很好。

就在一个月前，斯洛文尼亚以3比0轻松击败哈萨克斯坦，从那以后，一切都没有改变。事实上，斯洛文尼亚在输给挪威后可能会更有动力。质量上的差异是巨大的，我期待斯洛文尼亚又一场轻松的比赛。在2023年的欧洲杯预选赛中，斯洛文尼亚也两次击败哈萨克斯坦（2-1和2-1），两场比赛的进球数都是预期的两倍。