England VS Finland

Finland challenge England in this UEFA Nations League League B Group 2 round 2 clash at Wembley Stadium in London early Wednesday morning Beijing time. A match of only decent quality by the Nations League B standards is on the cards here. The main reason behind this is the staggering difference in quality between these two teams. Indeed, challenge is all I believe Finland are capable of here.. Even a draw would be a massive surprise! England are rarely undervalued on the betting market - and the main reason for this pick is the terrible state the Finnish national team are – and have been for quite a long time already. As a Finnish bettor I have followed our national team extremely carefully, listened to players' and coaches' interviews as well as rumours - trying to also analyze the current team spirit and (possible) lack of trust towards the coach etc. Finland are in a rebuilding phase and can be a decent team in 2-3 years from now.. However, with many new, mostly inexperienced players (at this level), they are " a mess". They cannot defend – or attack even at a decent level at the moment!  The level Finland were at in 2018-2021, even qualifying for the EURO 2020 - which was played in 2021 -  is only a distant memory now.. Based on Finland coach, Markku "Rive" Kanerva's comments - and Finland's previous games – Finland are unlikely to "park the bus" ie. defend with all 11 men near their own goal here. This will probably result in England scoring at least two goals – even 4-6 six goals would not be a huge surprise here.  Even if Finland were to defend in a structured way, England, with hugely talented (offensive) individuals, should be able to break the Finnish defence at least twice.. 

I want to emphasize that Finland's defence in the "good times" was based on a very well structured defence where two experienced players played a very big role. These players, Tim Sparv and Paulus Arajuuri, have already retired.. The current Finland defence lacks skill, speed and physical strength. A prime Teemu Pukki (Norwich City) was an integral part in Finland's success. Finland are missing for example Kaan Kairinen, one of the team's most important players against England. He has been excellent with Sparta Prague recently, even making it for the UEFA Champions League. Finland have only a few players in the top-4 European leagues. England, even without some key players, is "from another galaxy" compared to Finland! They have a large number of excellent players - and a new head coach, L. Carsley, and in front of their fans I expect the England players to be very motivated here – ready to crush Finland and entertain their loud and demanding fans. Yes, England were a disappointment performance-wise in the EURO 2024, but still made it to the finals, losing to Spain, a team simply too good, 1-2 in the final. I believe the England players to be energized by the coaching change – perhaps being relieved by Southgate's exit.. He wanted the team to play way too defensive, cautious football. Most of my fans probably watched the EURO 2024 and/or read my analyses on England's games in this tournament so I will not go into Southgate's style of play in detail anymore.. I simply highlight that England can play much better than they did in the EURO 2024! In the semifinals they deservedly beat a strong team, the Netherlands, 2-1. Before this they beat  a strong team, Switzerland, 2-1 in penalties. In the group stage they did not lose a single game but were lame offensively.

In their last game Finland were absolutely abysmal, losing to Greece 0-3 on the road. Greece did not qualify for the EURO 2024 and are, of course, a much worse team than England. The Finns played at a decent level for the first approximately 20 minutes but after that Greece were the much better team on the pitch, playing a tactically very smart game.. Finland failed to generate a single shot on goal and generated only 0.23 in xG. Yes, Greece played well but Finland were a huge disappointment, despite being the underdogs in this game. Before this Finland played a 2-2 in Scotland but the Scots, one of the worst teams in EURO 2024, were the better team on the pitch. They recorded many more goal attempts (16-6), shots on goal and shots off target. Finland started the EURO 2024 Qualification surprisingly well, but also had some luck on their side.. However, in the end they finished in 3rd place and lost the important games (in terms of qualification)  against Slovenia (0-3) and Kazakhstan 1-2. Especially away from home Finland extremely rarely achieves good results. They had no chance in Slovenia in October 2023. In the end they were not even close to qualifying for EURO 2024.. England won the Qualification Group C with a great 20 points, not losing a single game. Thanks to Finland's good results in the Nations League – played before the EURO 2024 Qualification started – Finland  still had a chance to earn their place in the EURO 2024 by beating Wales (and Poland). However, they lost to Wales 1-4 away from home after a terrible performance! The xG numbers were 3.56-1.11.  In their last game England traveled to Ireland and very easily won 2-0. They did not give the Irish much of a chance to take even a point. England, despite missing some important players – for example Manchester City's Phil Foden -  scored two goals early in the first half. The two quick goals seemed to depress the hosts.. In the second half England deliberately lowered the tempo, mainly aiming to keep a clean sheet.. England had some 68 % ball possession and generated 2.43 in xG. Ireland managed only 0.33.

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英格兰VS芬兰

北京时间周三凌晨，欧足联国家联赛B组第二轮比赛将在伦敦温布利大球场举行，芬兰队将迎战英格兰队。一场以B级联赛的标准来看质量还算不错的比赛即将到来。这背后的主要原因是这两支球队在质量上的巨大差异。的确，挑战是我相信芬兰在这里所能做到的。即使平局也是一个巨大的惊喜!在博彩市场上，英格兰队很少被低估——这一选择的主要原因是芬兰国家队的糟糕状态——而且这种情况已经持续了很长时间。作为一名芬兰投注者，我一直非常仔细地关注着我们的国家队，听取了球员和教练的采访以及谣言——试图分析当前的团队精神和(可能的)对教练缺乏信任等。芬兰正处于重建阶段，2-3年后会成为一支不错的球队。然而，对于许多新手，大多是没有经验的玩家(在这个级别)，他们是“一团糟”。他们不能防守，也不能进攻，即使是在一个不错的水平!芬兰在2018-2021年的水平，甚至是2021年举行的2020年欧洲杯的资格，现在都成了遥远的记忆。根据芬兰队主教练马尔库“里夫”卡内瓦的评论——以及芬兰队此前的比赛——芬兰队不太可能“停车”。11人在本方球门附近防守。这可能会导致英格兰至少进2球——甚至4-6球也不会是一个巨大的惊喜。即使芬兰队以一种有组织的方式防守，英格兰队拥有非常有天赋的(进攻)个人，应该能够至少两次打破芬兰队的防守。

我想强调的是，芬兰在“繁荣时期”的防守是建立在结构良好的防守基础上的，两位经验丰富的球员发挥了非常重要的作用。这些球员，蒂姆·斯帕夫和保卢斯·阿拉朱利，已经退役了。目前芬兰队的防守缺乏技术、速度和体力。一个优秀的Teemu Pukki(诺维奇城)是芬兰成功不可或缺的一部分。例如，芬兰队在对阵英格兰队时最重要的球员之一凯恩·凯里宁就缺席了。他最近在布拉格斯巴达表现出色，甚至打进了欧洲冠军联赛。芬兰在欧洲四大联赛中只有少数球员。即使没有一些关键球员，与芬兰相比，英格兰也是“来自另一个星系”!他们有一大批优秀的球员——还有一个新的主教练L.卡斯利，在他们的球迷面前，我希望英格兰球员在这里非常有动力——准备碾压芬兰队，取悦他们吵闹而苛刻的球迷。是的，英格兰队在2024年欧洲杯上的表现令人失望，但仍然进入了决赛，在决赛中以1比2输给了西班牙队，这支球队实在是太棒了。我相信英格兰球员会被教练的改变所激励——也许索斯盖特的离开会让他们松一口气。他希望球队踢得过于防守，过于谨慎。我的大多数球迷可能都看过2024年欧洲杯，或者读过我对本届欧洲杯英格兰队比赛的分析，所以我就不再详细讨论索斯盖特的踢球风格了。我只是强调英格兰可以比他们在2024年欧洲杯上表现得更好!在半决赛中，他们以2-1击败了强大的荷兰队，实至名归。在此之前，他们在点球大战中以2比1击败了强队瑞士。在小组赛中，他们没有输掉一场比赛，但在进攻端表现不佳。

芬兰队在上一场比赛中表现非常糟糕，在客场0-3输给了希腊。希腊没有获得2024年欧洲杯的参赛资格，当然，这支球队比英格兰队差得多。芬兰人在前20分钟踢得不错，但之后希腊队在球场上表现得更好，他们踢了一场非常聪明的战术。芬兰队没有制造出一次射门机会，在xG比赛中只有0.23次射门机会。是的，希腊踢得很好，但芬兰队非常令人失望，尽管他们在这场比赛中处于劣势。在此之前，芬兰队与苏格兰队打了一场2:2的比赛，但作为2024年欧洲杯上表现最差的球队之一，苏格兰队在球场上表现得更好。他们记录了更多的射门次数(16-6次)，射正和射偏。芬兰队在2024年欧洲杯预选赛的开局出人意料地好，但他们也有一些运气。然而，最终他们以第三名的成绩结束了比赛，并在与斯洛文尼亚(0-3)和哈萨克斯坦(1-2)的重要比赛中失利(就出线资格而言)。尤其是在客场，芬兰队极少取得好成绩。他们在2023年10月的斯洛文尼亚没有机会。到最后，他们甚至连钱都没有

2024年欧洲杯预选赛……英格兰队以20分的优异成绩赢得了预选赛C组的冠军，没有输掉一场比赛。由于芬兰队在2024年欧洲杯预选赛开始前的国家联赛中取得了好成绩，芬兰队仍然有机会击败威尔士(和波兰)，赢得2024年欧洲杯的入场券。然而，在糟糕的表现之后，他们客场1-4输给了威尔士!xG值为3.56 ~ 1.11。在上一场比赛中，英格兰队客场对阵爱尔兰队，轻松地以2比0取胜。他们甚至没有给爱尔兰队多少机会拿一分。英格兰队虽然失去了一些重要的球员，比如曼城队的菲尔·福登，但在上半场刚开始的时候就进了两个球。两个快速的进球似乎让东道主感到沮丧。下半场英格兰故意放慢节奏，主要目的是保持零失球。英格兰队有68%的控球率，全场进球2.43。爱尔兰仅为0.33。