Albacete Balompié SAD VS Eibar

Albacete host Eibar for this Spanish LaLiga2 round 4 battle at Estadio Carlos Belmonte early Tuesday morning Beijing time. A match of good quality by this league's standards is on the cards here. This is the 3rd-best 2nd tier on the planet, after the English Championship and the German 2. Bundesliga. As this is only the 4th round of play we will take a look at last season's results and statistics to best calculate the probabilities here. Eibar were much stronger than Albacete in the 2023-2024 season. They took more points than the hosts also in the 2022-2023 season. Last season Eibar performed very well, finishing in 3rd place with a great 71 points. Leganes (74 points) and Valladolid with 72 points were promoted to the LaLiga. Eibar scored a whopping 72 goals in this league last season, 13 goals more than any other team in LaLiga2! Their defence was not super solid though – they allowed 48 goals. Albacete, on the other hand, finished in 13th place with a pretty lame 51 points to their account. Albacete were unable to match Eibar in any area of the game. Their score difference was poor - 50:56 to be precise. Yes, they have some potential for improvement but the bookies seem to give this potential too much emphasis here. With the expected lineups, based on my strongly data-based analysis, Eibar are the stronger team here. However, with the home advantage Albacete deserve to be  only extremely marginal favourites. The odds of around 2.30 on the home win are clearly too low! We will take the Eibar +0.5 goals handicap option.

Let's also not forget that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Elche are the bigger team here. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated total of around 21 million euros. The Albacete, on the other hand, is valued at only about 14 million euros. Eibar have not lost any of their last five games – winning 3/5. In their last match they faced a dangerous opponent, Levante, at home. It was a 2-2 draw but Eibar had close to 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (31-8), shots on target, shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks 88-19! Before this they faced Racing Santander on the road and it was a 2-2 draw after a somewhat balanced clash. Eibar were pretty clear underdogs on the betting market but recorded more goal attempts and shots off target. The hosts had more shots on goal. Before this they took three consecutive wins – without allowing a single goal! Albacete have grabbed three wins and lost twice in their most recent five games. They were disappointing in their last game, losing to Malaga 1-2 on the road despite Malaga's A. Pastor being sent off in the 39th minute! The score was 1-1 at the time of the red card. Both teams had 16 goal attempts. Before this they grabbed an undeserved win at home over Elche! The visitors had a very high ball possession % and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on target, corner kicks (8-0), attacks and dangerous attacks. Albacete were very disappointing offensively. Their odds of around 2.10-2.10 to win were clearly too low! In round 1 Albacete were lucky as well, beating Granada 2-1 on the road. The hosts had an impressive 22 goal attempts and recorded hugely more shots on goal (10-3) and shots off target - 11-2. These two lucky wins seem to have resulted in serious overvaluation on the betting market..

Albacete balompiovis VS Eibar

北京时间周二凌晨，阿尔巴塞特主场迎战埃巴尔，将在贝尔蒙特球场迎战西甲第四轮。按照这个联盟的标准，一场高质量的比赛是有可能的。这是这个星球上第三好的二级联赛，仅次于英格兰锦标赛和德国二级联赛。德甲。由于这只是第四轮比赛，我们将看看上赛季的结果和数据，以最好地计算概率。在2023-2024赛季，埃巴尔比阿尔瓦塞特强得多。在2022-2023赛季，他们也比东道主获得了更多的积分。上个赛季，艾巴表现非常出色，以71分的成绩获得了第三名。莱加内斯(74分)和巴利亚多利德(72分)双双升入西甲。上赛季，埃巴尔在西甲联赛中打进了72球，比其他任何一支西甲球队都多13球!他们的防守不是很稳固，他们丢了48个球。另一方面，阿尔瓦塞特队以可怜的51分排名第13。阿尔瓦塞特在比赛的任何领域都无法与埃巴尔匹敌。他们的比分差距很小，准确地说是50:56。是的，他们有一些改进的潜力，但是博彩公司似乎在这里过分强调了这种潜力。根据我强烈的数据分析，在预期的阵容中，Eibar是更强大的球队。然而，在主场优势的情况下，阿尔瓦塞特应该只是一个非常边缘的热门。主场获胜的赔率约为2.30，这显然太低了!我们将采用Eibar +0.5进球障碍选项。

我们也不要忘记，根据德国著名的网站Transfermarkt.com，埃尔切是这里更大的球队。事实上，他们的球员估计总价值约为2100万欧元。另一方面，阿尔瓦塞特的价值仅为1400万欧元左右。巴萨最近5场比赛3胜5负，没有输过一场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对了一个危险的对手莱万特。虽然比分是2比2平，但埃巴尔的控球率接近70%，并且有更多的进球尝试(31比8)、射正、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻(88比19)!在此之前，他们在客场面对桑坦德竞技队，在一些平衡的冲突之后，双方以2比2战平。在博彩市场上，埃巴尔显然处于劣势，但他们的进球次数和射偏次数都更多。东道主的射门次数更多。在此之前，他们取得了三连胜——一球未失!阿尔瓦塞特在最近的5场比赛中取得了3胜2负。他们在上一场比赛中表现令人失望，尽管马拉加的A.帕斯特在第39分钟被罚下，他们还是在客场1-2输给了马拉加!红牌出示时比分是1比1。两队都有16次射门机会。在此之前，他们在主场对埃尔切取得了一场不应得的胜利!客队的控球率很高，进球次数、射正次数、角球次数(8-0)、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。阿尔瓦塞特在进攻端非常令人失望。他们的胜率只有2.10比2.10，这显然太低了!在第一轮比赛中，阿尔瓦塞特也很幸运，在客场2-1击败格拉纳达。东道主有令人印象深刻的22次进球尝试，并且记录了更多的射正(10胜3负)和射偏(11胜2负)。这两次幸运的胜利似乎导致了博彩市场上严重的高估。