In my opinion Nottingham has a really good chance to at least avoid loss in today's match.

I see 4 good reasons to trust home team here

1. Motivation - for Nottingham is big game, all tickets are sold out and team looking for deep run in EFL Cup. On the other hand, Newcastle main goal is qualification into Champions League (top4 finish in league) and I not will be surprise to see some rotation in their squad.

2. Fitness - Nottingham played last match at Saturday, Newcastle played last match at Sunday and have less time to recover.

3. Form - both teams made 4 points in two opening rounds of Premier League (with same 2:1 goals balance), but Nottingham played better as they had in both matches higher expected goals scored value than opponents (Newcastle in both matches had lower expected goals scored value than opponents).

4. Squad - Nottingham have all key players available today, on the other hand Newcastle is without key players like defender Botman or striker Wilson.

In those circumstances I see value on the home side.

在我看来，诺丁汉至少有很好的机会在今天的比赛中避免输球。

我有4个理由相信主队

1. 动力——对于诺丁汉来说，这是一场重要的比赛，所有的门票都已经售罄，球队希望在联赛杯中取得更大的进步。另一方面，纽卡斯尔的主要目标是进入欧冠联赛(联赛前4名)，我不会对他们的阵容出现一些轮换感到惊讶。

2. 体能——诺丁汉在周六踢了最后一场比赛，纽卡斯尔在周日踢了最后一场比赛，恢复的时间更少。

3. 状态-两支球队在英超首轮都拿到了4分(同样是2:1的进球比例)，但是诺丁汉踢得更好，因为他们两场比赛的预期进球值都高于对手(纽卡斯尔两场比赛的预期进球值都低于对手)。

4. 阵容:诺丁汉今天有所有的关键球员可以上场，另一方面纽卡斯尔没有像后卫博特曼和前锋威尔逊这样的关键球员。

在这种情况下，我看到了主队的价值。