Ludogorets Razgrad VS Qarabag

Ludogorets welcome Qarabag for this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 3 second leg battle at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of lower than average quality by this competition's 3rd round standards here.. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity here! The visitors come from Azerbaijan, the hosts are a Bulgarian team - with many very good foreign players in the squad.. The domestic season in Azerbaijan started last week, Ludogorets have played two games in the Parva Liga, which is of much better quality than the Azerbaijani Premier League. Qarabag have been – and probably are dominant in this league this season.. They suffer from not getting to play more than a few really challenging games in their domestic league... Qarabag easily beat Kapaz in their first Premier League game 3-0. They were priced around 1.20 by the bookies to win. Ludogorets started the season by beating a pretty dangerous team, CSKA Sofia 1-0 at home despite not being at their best.. They recorded many more goal attempts -16-5 to be precise. Sofia ended up in 3rd place in the Parva Liga last season. Ludogorets are clearly the best team in Bulgaria – and have been for a quite long time already! They easily won the championship last season – by a margin of seven points to Cherno More. They took a fine 82 points. Ludogorets netted the ball 87 times and allowed only 24! Both numbers were the best in the Parva Liga.

No, the Ludogorets supporters are not among the loudest in Europe but still offer a big boost to the Ludogorets here! Even so, I want to emphasize that Ludogorets are an extremely strong team at home, in front of their loud and demanding fans.. Last season they won 17 of the 18 home matches in the Parva Liga! Moreover, they have won 15 of their last 16 competitive games at home! The home advantage is very often even bigger in UEFA's international club competitions than the bookmakers and recreational bettors seem to estimate..  This is the case here as well! In 2022 Ludogorets challenged two much bigger teams, Italian AS Roma and Spanish Real Betis, surprisingly well in the UEFA Europa League group stage – and were not that far from qualifying for the Playoffs! Last season they qualified for the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoffs but lost to a dangerous Swiss team, Servette, 0-1 on aggregate. The first leg was a 0-0 draw and in the 2nd leg in Bulgaria Servette took an undeserved victory! Ludogorets recorded many more goal attempts and shots on target. They also generated much more in expected goals (xG) – 1.57-0.67. By pure class I see the hosts as slightly better than Qarabag. However, they do not have to win this game as they upset Qarabag in Azerbaijan last week – 2-1. Qarabag were priced around 1.70 – which is total nonsense – despite them deserving to be the favourites, of course. Qarabag had 56% ball possession and recorded one more shot on goal than Ludogorets. The fact that Qarabag need to go for a win, of course, increases their chances. I have taken this into account in my analysis.. However, their performances on the road in international games have often not been all that impressive in recent years. For example, last summer HJK Helsinki, a lowly team from Finland, were leading 1-0 at home in a Champions League Qualification 2nd leg game - and were in control of the game – before K. Koussavi-Benissan received a red card..

Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Ludogorets are the bigger team here - by a huge margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated around 53 million euros. This is still a little too low though! The Qarabag squad, on the other hand, is valued at only about 16 million, which is too low as well.. Having said that I want to emphasize, the total market values very often reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course, sometimes be misleading as well.. For example, a still extremely good player, Lionel Messi, 37, who plays for Inter Miami in the MLS in the USA, is valued at "only'' 30 million euros. At home Ludogorets are the favourites – not clear though. The bookies disagree and offer odds of around 2.40 on the away win. Well, we will take advantage of this mistake and take the Ludogorets +0.5 goals handicap option - going for yet another winner!

Ludogorets have won nine of their last 11 games! Before defeating Qarabag, they crushed Arda 5-1 at home. They recorded eight shots on goal - the visitors managed only one. Before beating CSKA Sofia on the 21st of July, Ludogorets lost to Dinamo Batumi 0-1 on the road despite recording more shots off target , attacks and dangerous attacks. However, I will not give this result much emphasis.. It was a Champions League Qualification 2nd leg clash and the result was, in fact, an excellent one for Ludogorets! Indeed, they had won the 1st leg 3-1 at home. In this match they recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-2) as well as shots off target. Before this they swept past a decent team from Romania, Univ. Craiova, 4-1 at home despite substituting all 11 players at halftime/ in the 2nd half. On the 26th of June Ludogorets beat a dangerous Swiss team, St. Gallen 2-0, at a neutral location – despite again making a huge number of substitutions.. Both of these matches were, of course, friendlies.. 

In the second round of qualification Ludogorets eliminated a surprisingly strong Belarussian team, Dinamo Minsk, 2-1 on aggregate. Ludogorets deservedly won the first leg 2-0 at home. The second at Mezokovesdi Varosi Stadion in Mezőkövesdi was a balanced clash as a whole – Minsk won 1-0. Ludogorets mainly concentrated on securing qualification  - and played a smart game tactically. Qarabag eliminated an awful team, Lincoln Red Imps, a team from Gibraltar in the last round of qualification. They won the first leg 2-0 in Gibraltar . Qarabag had 66% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (14-3), shots on goal (8-2), shots off target (4-1), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated much more in expected goals (xG) than the lowly hosts.. Rather interestingly, two teams locked horns last season -  and in Gibraltar the final score was a 1-2 away win. Indeed, Qarabag had 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts.. In fact the hosts managed only one.. The visitors also had many more shots on goal, shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 119-34 to be precise. In 2023, in the 2nd leg Qarabag crushed Red Imps 4-0 – giving them no chance at all. They had 75% ball possession and recorded 10 shots on goal – the visitors managed only one. The difference in all areas of the game was huge! The hosts also recorded many more corner kicks (11-1), attacks and dangerous attacks.. Not that much had, in fact, changed from last season..  Well, in fact, Lincoln were even worse than in 2023. This year Qarabag crushed Lincoln 5-0 at home. I will not give beating this terrible team a lot of emphasis. Let's remember that Qarabag have faced only one tricky opponent (Ludogorets) - in a competitive game – and simply failed to meet the expectations! Yes, they can improve from the first leg. – but so can Ludogorets! Lastly, I want to highlight how well Qarabag did last season: Indeed, Qarabag even qualified for the UEFA Europa League Playoffs. However, this probably affects the odds too much here.. They eventually lost to a German team, Bayer Leverkusen, one of the best teams in Europe last season, 4-5 on aggregate. They were huge underdogs in the betting market.. Yes, Qarabag were leading 2-0 in the second leg in Germany as late as in the 71st minute, despite playing with 10 men! Leverkusen, the reigning champions of Germany scored two goals in injury time.. The Czech forward, Patrik Schick, scored both goals. 

GOOD LUCK and thanks to my growing fan-base!

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拉兹格勒VS卡拉巴格

北京时间周三凌晨，鲁多戈雷特在拉兹格勒的Huvepharma Arena欢迎卡拉巴队参加欧冠资格赛第三轮次回合的比赛。球迷和我们这些着眼长远利益的严肃投注者，可以期待一场低于平均水平的比赛，以本届比赛第三轮的标准来看。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会!客队来自阿塞拜疆，主队是保加利亚队——球队中有很多非常优秀的外籍球员。上周阿塞拜疆的国内赛季开始了，卢多戈雷茨在帕尔瓦西甲踢了两场比赛，这比阿塞拜疆的超级联赛要好得多。卡拉巴格本赛季在联盟中一直占据统治地位。他们只能在国内联赛中打几场真正有挑战性的比赛……卡拉巴格在他们的第一场英超比赛中以3-0轻松击败卡帕兹。博彩公司给他们的胜率定在1.20英镑左右。卢多戈雷茨本赛季开始时在主场1-0击败了一支相当危险的球队——索菲亚中央陆军，尽管他们并没有处于最佳状态。他们的进球次数更多——准确地说是16-5。索非亚上赛季在帕尔瓦西甲联赛中排名第三。卢多戈雷茨显然是保加利亚最好的球队——而且已经保持了很长时间了!上个赛季，他们以7分的优势轻松赢得了冠军。他们被罚了82分。卢多戈雷茨打进87球，只丢了24球!这两个数字都是西甲最好的。

不，卢多戈雷特的支持者不是欧洲最大声的，但仍然为卢多戈雷特提供了巨大的动力!即便如此，我想强调的是，卢多戈雷茨在主场是一支非常强大的球队，在他们吵闹而苛刻的球迷面前。上赛季他们在帕尔瓦西甲的18场主场比赛中赢了17场!此外，他们最近16场比赛中有15场是在主场赢的!在欧足联的国际俱乐部比赛中，主场优势往往比博彩公司和娱乐投注者估计的还要大。这里的情况也是如此!2022年，卢多戈雷茨挑战了两支更大的球队，意大利罗马队和西班牙皇家贝蒂斯队，他们在欧联杯小组赛中表现惊人，离季后赛资格也不远了!上个赛季，他们获得了欧联杯季后赛的资格，但却以总比分0比1输给了危险的瑞士球队塞尔维特。首回合0-0战平，第二回合对阵保加利亚，塞尔维特取得了一场不应得的胜利!卢多戈雷茨记录了更多的进球尝试和射门。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)——1.57-0.67。从纯粹的等级来看，我认为东道主比卡拉巴格略胜一筹。然而，他们不需要赢得这场比赛，因为他们上周在阿塞拜疆以2-1击败了卡拉巴格。卡拉巴的定价在1.70左右——这完全是无稽之谈——尽管它们理应成为最受欢迎的球队，当然。卡拉巴格控球率为56%，射门次数比卢多戈雷茨多1次。卡拉巴格需要一场胜利的事实，当然增加了他们的机会。我在分析中考虑到了这一点。然而，近年来他们在国际比赛中的表现并不尽如人意。例如，去年夏天，一支来自芬兰的低水平球队赫尔辛基HJK，在欧冠资格赛第二回合比赛中主场1-0领先，并控制了比赛，直到K.库萨维-贝尼桑被红牌罚下。

让我们也记住，根据一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国网站，Transfermarkt.com，卢多戈雷茨是这里更大的球队-以巨大的优势。事实上，他们球员的身价估计在5300万欧元左右。这还是有点太低了!另一方面，卡拉巴格队的价值只有大约1600万英镑，这也太低了。话虽如此，我想强调的是，总的市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平，但当然，有时也会被误导。例如，37岁的莱昂内尔·梅西(Lionel Messi)仍然非常出色，他效力于美国职业足球大联盟(MLS)的国际迈阿密队(Inter Miami)，他的身价“仅”为3000万欧元。在主场，卢多戈雷特是最受欢迎的球队，虽然还不清楚。博彩公司不同意，并提供约2.40的客场胜利赔率。好吧，我们将利用这个错误，采取卢多戈雷茨+0.5个进球障碍的选择——争取另一个赢家!

卢多戈雷特队在最近11场比赛中赢了9场!在击败卡拉巴格之前，他们在主场5-1击败了阿尔达。他们射门8次，客队只射门1次。在bea

在7月21日对阵索非亚中央陆军的比赛中，卢多戈雷茨在客场0-1不敌巴图米迪纳摩，尽管他们的射门、进攻和危险进攻都有所增加。然而，我不会给这个结果太多的强调。这是一场欧冠资格赛第二回合的交锋，结果，事实上，对卢多戈雷茨来说是一场精彩的比赛!事实上，他们在主场3-1赢了第一回合。在这场比赛中，他们的射门次数、射正次数(6比2)和射偏次数都更多。在此之前，尽管他们在半场和下半场换下了全部11名球员，但他们还是在主场以4比1大胜来自罗马尼亚的克拉约瓦大学。6月26日，卢多戈雷茨队在一个中立的场地以2比0击败了危险的瑞士球队圣加仑队，尽管他们再次进行了大量的换人。当然，这两场比赛都是友谊赛。

在第二轮预选赛中，卢多戈雷茨队以总比分2-1淘汰了实力惊人的白俄罗斯明斯克迪纳摩队。卢多戈雷茨当之无愧地在主场以2-0获胜。第二场比赛是在Mezőkövesdi的瓦罗西球场进行的，整个比赛是一场势均力敌的比赛——明斯克1-0获胜。卢多戈雷茨主要专注于确保出线，并且在战术上踢得很聪明。卡拉巴在资格赛的最后一轮淘汰了一支来自直布罗陀的糟糕球队——林肯红精灵队。他们在直布罗陀以2比0获胜。卡拉巴格有66%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(14胜3负)、射正(8胜2负)、射偏(4胜1负)、角球、进攻和危险进攻。他们的预期进球数也比排名靠后的东道主多得多。相当有趣的是，上赛季两支球队发生了冲突——在直布罗陀，最终比分是客场1-2取胜。事实上，卡拉巴格有70%的控球率，并且有更多的射门机会。事实上，东道主只成功举办了一次……客队也有更多的射门，射门，角球，进攻，尤其是危险的进攻——119比34准确。2023年，在第二回合比赛中，卡拉巴格4-0击败了红魔，根本没有给他们任何机会。他们有75%的控球率，有10次射正，而客队只有一次射正。游戏中所有区域的差异都是巨大的!东道主也创造了更多的角球(11胜1负)、攻击和危险攻击。事实上，与上个赛季相比，并没有太大的变化。事实上，林肯的表现甚至比2023年还要糟糕。今年卡拉巴格主场5-0击败林肯。我不会过多强调击败这支糟糕的球队。让我们记住，卡拉巴在竞争激烈的比赛中只面对过一个棘手的对手(Ludogorets)，而且根本没有达到预期!是的，他们可以从第一回合开始进步。——但卢多戈特也可以!最后，我想强调一下卡拉巴队上赛季的表现:事实上，卡拉巴队甚至获得了欧联杯季后赛的资格。然而，这可能会影响到这里的几率。他们最终以4比5的总比分输给了德国球队勒沃库森(Bayer Leverkusen)。勒沃库森是上个赛季欧洲最好的球队之一。他们在赌博市场上处于劣势。是的，卡拉巴格在德国的第二回合比赛中直到第71分钟才以2-0领先，尽管他们是10人作战!德国卫冕冠军勒沃库森队在伤停补时阶段连进两球。捷克前锋帕特里克·希克(Patrik Schick)打进了这两个球。

祝你好运，感谢我不断增长的粉丝群!