Bodo Glimt VS Jagiellonia Bialystok

Bodo/Glimt welcome Jagiellonia for this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 3 second leg at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a game of pretty modest quality by this competition's 3rd round standards here.. The main reason for this is that Jagiellonia are, in all honesty, a pretty limited team - for this level..  Furthermore, Bodo have never qualified for the Champions League group stage. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another extremely lucrative betting opportunity here! We have won an impressive seven picks in a row and 14/15 last picks betting on this league – the best of UEFA's three club competitions! Let's take a professional bettor's look to this interesting match..

The hosts are a Norwegian team,  the visitors come from Poland. The home advantage here is huge, even more substantial than on average in UEFA's international club games! Let's not forget that a few years ago Bodo crushed  a big Italian team, coached by Jose Mourinho at the time, AS Roma 6-1 at this stadium! Moreover, in front of their fans they have beaten many other much bigger teams (than themselves) in terms of estimated squad market value - according to a well-known and respected source, Transfermarket.com.  In 2022 they beat Dinamo Zagreb, a big Croatian team, 1-0 at home. Here, of course, this is not the case. Jagiellonia, rather surprisingly, won the Polish Ekstraklasa last season.. They took a total of 63 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was only 55.99. For reference, in the 2022-2023 season they finished only in the 14th place! They are not among the biggest teams in Poland in terms of overall financial resources and I would be extremely surprised if they were to win the championship this season.. My point here is that their "status" as the champions of Ekstraklasa – despite being true, of course, is in a way misleading ahead of this game against Bodo -  and probably affects the odds too much here.. Bodo were dominant in the Norwegian Eliteserien last season, taking 70 points! At home they won 12 of the 15 Eliteserien games. This season 18 rounds of Eliteserien have been played and Bodo have, once again, been very strong! They top the standings with 41 points. Viking, in 2nd place, have grabbed 33 points. Last season Bodo qualified for the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoffs. They were eliminated by one the biggest teams in the Netherlands, Ajax, 3-4 on aggregate. Yes, Ajax had a disappointing season but are still a hugely bigger team than Bodo in terms of players estimated total market value – as well as success at the highest level, in the Champions League.. The first leg in Amsterdam was a 2-2 draw. At Aspmyra Stadion Bodo would have deserved a win but it was a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.. Ajax eventually won 2-1 through K. Taylor's goal in the 114th minute.. Bodo recorded significantly more goal attempts (25-9), shots on goal, shots off goal attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated 2.87 in xG – Ajax managed just 1.13. My point here is that Ajax are a massively bigger team than Jagiellonia! In the Conference League Group stage Bodo beat Lugano 5-2 at home and a pretty big Turkish club, Besiktas, 3-1. Bodo have now won four games in a row at Aspmyra Stadion – all by a margin of at least two goals.

In their last game Bodo faced Viking on the road and took a 1-1 draw despite squad rotation by Bodo's excellent coach, K. Knutsen. Many of the players surely also probably had their minds on the huge game against Jagiellonia.. Bodo were clearly the better team in the first leg. They played much better as a team than the Polish hosts did. Bodo had 63% ball possession and recorded 13 goal attempts. They allowed the hosts only two shots on goal, recording four themselves.. I liked the way they suffocated the hosts' offense in front of some 20 000 loud home fans.. Bodo also had many more corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Yes, of course Jagiallonia still have a chance to qualify but many of their players look rather helpless, even demoralized in the second half in the 1st leg. Rather interestingly, they were unable to put the typical "last 10 minutes pressure" on the opponent's defence – that the team trailing usually is able to create.. Bodo could easily have won by a margin of more than one goal.. Yes, of course Bodo only need a draw here but I do not believe that they will leave anything to chance here.. Indeed, I expect them to be active, perhaps even aggressive right from the kickoff  - aiming to score the important opening goal. They are undoubtedly fully aware of the fact that they are the much better team, so why would they defend - and perhaps – even with a bit of luck - allow Jagiellonia to score..? Before the first leg, Bodo beat Haugesund 4-2 home, proving their huge offensive quality! They have scored an impressive 42 goals in the Eliteserien this season! The xG numbers were 2.88-1.02. In the last round of qualification they crushed RFS, the reigning champions of Latvia, 7-1 on aggregate. At home, in the 1st leg, they were totally dominant, recording 20 goal attempts. In Latvia, they proved their class, mental strength and professionalism - winning 3-1 – despite not needing to do so, of course.. Bodo recorded seven shots on goal, RFS, who are not a bad team in terms of pure class, managed only two. In my expert opinion Bodo would earn more credit from these two performances against RFS than they have received in the (football) media..

Jagiellonia beat a very lowly Lithuanian team, FK Panevezys, in the previous round of qualification. Yes, they played well but the opponent was even worse than I would have expected.. They are in second-last place in the lowly Lithuania A Lyga at the moment! I will not give beating this terrible team a lot of emphasis! In the first leg, in Lithuania, Jagiellonia won 4-0 and were, of course, the better team. However, the hosts still recorded eight goal attempts -  and also managed 105 attacks – just three less than Jagiellonia. The final score does flatter Jagiellonia.. At home they were priced around 1.25 to win and did beat the Lithianians 3-1. Jagiellonia recorded seven shots on target – Panevezys' number was four. Jagiellonia managed just one more attack than the visitors – 117-116. Jagiellonia have started the Ekstraklasa season well and top the standings with nine points after three rounds of play. However, they have had luck on their side.. I want to mention that they have  beaten two pretty limited teams -  at home -  in their domestic league. I will not overreact to these wins! In their last game they beat a pretty limited team, Stal Mielec, 2-0 at home as very clear favourites on the betting market. Jagiellonia defended very well but Stal Mielec's offense was also abysmal in this game.. However, they cannot show up at Aspmyra Stadion defefing.. They will have to take some risks as they are trailing. Bodo, with their tactically smart head coach, may well – at times – allow Jagiellonia to have the ball – only to hurt them in transitions! Indeed, Bodo have various different tactics/formations they can use.. In round 2 of Ekstraklasa Jagiellonia had some luck against Radomiak Radom on the road. The visitors won 3-2 as favourites on the betting market but the hosts recorded 26 goal attempts and much more in xG – 2.12-0.88 to be precise! They also recorded many more shots on goal, shot off target (20-6), corner kicks (11-2) and attacks. Odds of close to 1.50 are available on the home win here at the time of posting. This is, based on my strongly data-based expert analysis, too high! For the fans wanting to go for bigger odds, the -1.5 goals handicap option is a good option. The chance of winning this handicap bet is 52%!

GOOD LUCK!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

Bodo Glimt VS Jagiellonia Bialystok

北京时间周三凌晨，博多和格里姆特在博多的阿斯迈拉球场欢迎雅盖隆参加欧冠资格赛第三轮次回合的比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场质量相当一般的比赛，以本届比赛第三轮的标准来看。这样做的主要原因是，说实话，Jagiellonia是一个相当有限的团队-在这个级别。此外，博多从来没有进入过欧冠小组赛。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝在这里又有了一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!我们赢得了令人印象深刻的连续7次选秀权和14/15次最后一次选秀权，这是欧足联三项俱乐部赛事中最好的!让我们从职业赌徒的角度来看这场有趣的比赛。

东道主是挪威队，客队来自波兰。这里的主场优势是巨大的，甚至比欧足联国际俱乐部比赛的平均优势还要大!让我们不要忘记几年前，博多在这个球场以6-1击败了一支由穆里尼奥执教的意大利强队。此外，根据知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarket.com的数据，在球迷面前，他们已经击败了许多比他们大得多的球队。2022年，他们在主场以1比0击败克罗地亚强队萨格勒布迪纳摩。当然，这里的情况并非如此。令人惊讶的是，雅盖隆尼亚上赛季赢得了波兰的Ekstraklasa。他们共获得63分，但期望分数(xPTS)只有55.99分。作为参考，在2022-2023赛季，他们只排在第14位!从整体财政资源来看，他们不是波兰最大的球队之一，如果他们在本赛季赢得冠军，我会非常惊讶。我的观点是，他们作为Ekstraklasa冠军的“地位”——尽管是真的，当然，在这场对阵Bodo的比赛之前，这在某种程度上是误导的——可能会影响到这里的赔率。Bodo上赛季在挪威精英队占据统治地位，拿到了70分!在主场，他们赢了15场精英联赛中的12场。本赛季精英队已经打了18轮，博多又一次非常强大!他们以41分排名第一。排名第二的维京人已经拿到了33分。上个赛季，博多获得了欧洲联赛季后赛的资格。他们以3比4的总比分被荷兰最大的球队之一阿贾克斯淘汰。是的，阿贾克斯度过了一个令人失望的赛季，但就球员估计的总市场价值而言，阿贾克斯仍然是一支比博多大得多的球队——以及在最高水平的冠军联赛中取得的成功。在阿姆斯特丹的第一回合是2比2战平。在阿斯迈拉球场，博多本应赢得一场胜利，但90分钟后双方打成1-1平局。阿贾克斯最终凭借K.泰勒在114分钟的进球以2-1获胜。博多的进球次数(25-9次)、射正、射离球门和危险进攻的记录明显更多。它们在xG中也生成了2.87个，而Ajax只生成了1.13个。我的观点是，阿贾克斯是一支比雅盖隆大得多的球队!在联盟小组赛阶段，博多主场5-2击败卢加诺，3-1击败土耳其豪门贝西克塔斯。博多目前已经在阿斯迈拉球场取得了四连胜，而且都以至少两球的优势获胜。

在他们的最后一场比赛中，尽管Bodo的优秀教练K. Knutsen进行了阵容轮换，Bodo还是在客场面对维京人，并以1比1战平。很多球员肯定也在想着和雅盖隆尼亚的比赛。博多队显然在首回合表现更好。作为一个整体，他们比东道主波兰踢得好得多。博多有63%的控球率，13次射门。他们只让东道主射正了两脚，自己却射进了四脚。我喜欢他们在大约2万名大声的主场球迷面前压制东道主进攻的方式。博多也有更多的角球、进攻和危险的进攻。是的，当然贾贾隆尼亚仍然有机会出线，但他们的许多球员看起来相当无助，甚至在第一回合的下半场士气低落。更有趣的是，他们无法对对手的防守施加典型的“最后10分钟压力”——落后的球队通常能够创造这种压力。博多本可以轻松地以不止一球的优势获胜。是的，当然博多只需要一场平局，但我不相信他们会在这里留下任何机会。事实上，我希望他们从开球开始就积极主动，甚至积极进取，目标是打进重要的首球

． 毫无疑问，他们充分意识到他们是一支更好的球队，所以他们为什么要防守——也许——即使有一点运气——让贾盖隆尼亚得分……?首回合之前，博多主场4-2击败豪格松，证明了他们强大的进攻能力!他们本赛季在精英联赛中打进了令人印象深刻的42球!xG值为2.88 ~ 1.02。在上一轮资格赛中，他们以总比分7-1击败了卫冕冠军拉脱维亚队RFS。在主场，在第一回合，他们完全占据统治地位，记录了20次射门。在拉脱维亚，他们证明了自己的水平、精神力量和职业精神——3-1获胜——当然，尽管不需要这样做。博多有7次射正，而从纯粹水平来看不算差的RFS只有2次射正。在我看来，博多从这两场对阵RFS的比赛中获得的赞誉比他们在(足球)媒体上得到的要多。

在上一轮预选赛中，雅盖隆尼亚击败了实力非常弱的立陶宛球队FK Panevezys。是的，他们打得很好，但是对手比我想象的还要糟糕。他们目前在排名较低的立陶宛A Lyga排名倒数第二!我不会给打败这支可怕的球队太多的强调!在首回合对阵立陶宛的比赛中，雅盖隆尼亚4-0获胜，当然，他们是更好的球队。然而，东道主仍然有8次射门，105次进攻，只比贾盖洛尼亚少3次。最后的比分确实让雅盖洛尼亚高兴。在主场，他们的定价在1.25美元左右，并以3-1击败了立陶宛人。雅盖隆尼亚有7次射正，而帕内维齐只有4次。雅盖隆尼亚只比客队多了一次进攻——117-116。雅盖隆尼亚在Ekstraklasa赛季开局不错，在三轮比赛后以9分排名第一。然而，他们有运气。我想提一下，他们在国内联赛中击败了两支实力相当有限的球队——在主场。我不会对这些胜利反应过度!在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以2比0击败了一支实力相当有限的球队——在博彩市场上非常受欢迎的斯托尔·米莱克。贾盖隆的防守很好，但是米列茨的进攻也很糟糕。然而，他们不能出现在阿斯迈拉球场防守。由于落后，他们将不得不承担一些风险。博多，在他们战术精明的主教练的带领下，很可能——有时——让贾盖隆尼亚拿球——只是在转换中伤害他们!的确，Bodo有各种不同的战术/阵型可以使用…在第二轮Ekstraklasa Jagiellonia有一些运气对阵拉多米亚克拉多姆在路上。客队在博彩市场上以3比2获胜，但主队在xG - 2.12-0.88的比赛中有26次进球，准确地说更多!他们也记录了更多的射正、射偏(20胜6负)、角球(11胜2负)和进攻。赔率接近1.50是可用的主场赢在这里张贴的时间。根据我基于数据的专家分析，这个价格太高了!对于想要获得更大赔率的球迷来说，-1.5个进球障碍选项是一个不错的选择。赢这个障碍赌注的机会是52%!

好运！