Slovan Bratislava VS NK Publikum Celje

Slovan Bratislava host Celje for this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 2 second leg battle at Tehelné pole in Bratislava very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of relatively good quality by this competition's 2nd round standards here! Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity! We have won five picks in a row betting on the Champions League / CL Qualification! I have written an in-depth preview on four other Champions League Qualification games as well!  The visitors come from Slovenia, the hosts are a Slovakian team. I expect a pretty balanced and entertaining match here! Indeed, Slovan Bratislava are a relatively overish team.. They usually play pretty active, beautiful football, especially at home. They have several offensive tactics/ formations.. However, neither team will take massive risks here but I do not see their excellent head coach drastically changing the tactics – despite the stakes being very high here.. The goal expectancy here is bigger than the bookmakers seem to estimate. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 60.50%. The first leg started as I expected – the score was 1-1 already in the 11th minute. However, the match changed completely when Bratislava's K. Savvidis was sent off in the 30th minute. After that Celje, of course, took control of the events on the pitch. They recorded 21 goal attempts, Slovan, too, managed a decent number - seven to be precise. Celje had a few goals disallowed after a VAR check but overall I was a bit disappointed that they managed to record only six shots on goal despite playing with a one-man-advantage for over 60 minutes. They were, after all, the favourites in this game according to the bookies. I disagreed though.. I liked the way how Bratislava fought with 10 men and now they have an excellent chance of getting the job done in front of their loud and loyal fans! The odds of around 2.00 are available on the hosts eliminating Celje in the 90 minutes of play. We have a 56.50% chance of winning – once again! Celje, rather interestingly, have a new head coach, Albert Riera, who has done good work in Slovenia before but I will not give this factor a lot of emphasis here.

Slovan Bratislava are clearly the best club in Slovakia – and have been for a long time already.. They comfortably won the championship in the 2023-2024 season – by a margin of a huge 15 points to Dun. Streda! Bratislava took a great 73 points. They netted the ball 76 times and conceded 31 goals. I want to highlight that the 76 goals was very clearly the largest number in the Nike Liga! This league is unarguably better as a whole than the Slovenian Prva Liga! Celje won the league last season – taking 79 points. In the 2022-2023 season they ended up in 2nd place. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) last season was "only" 74.05. They scored 75 goals and allowed quite a few many goals – 34 to be precise. Indeed, their defence is not always very well organized, for the champions of a decent football country. Furthermore their defenders - and midfielders as well, make quite a few stupid mistakes.. In the Prva Liga they do not suffer from these mistakes that match in many matches but a team of Slovan Bratislava's caliber will probably make Celje pay for stupid mistakes and/or rather being imbalanced on the pitch! 

Let's also not forget that according to a well-known and respected German source, Transfermarkt.com, Slovan Bratislava are the much bigger team here - by a substantial margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated over 20 million euros. This is still definitely too low. Three of the Slovans players are undervalued! The Celje squad, on the other hand, is valued at only around 12.9 million euros. This is, in my expert opinion, a bit too high.. Having said that I want to highlight, the total market values very often reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course, occasionally be misleading.. For example, a still extremely good player, Leo Messi, 37, who plays for Inter Miami in the MLS in the USA, is valued at only 30 million euros.

Bratislava's offensive players are much more creative, tactically smarter and skilled on average than those of the visitors. Bratislava also have a lot of experience from big games against strong European teams in the last five or so years.. Bratislava have now  won four of their last matches and must be high in confidence! After the first leg in Slovenia, Bratislava easily swept past Komarno on the road – winning 4-1. They recorded many more goal attempts and also generated much more in xG. They were priced around 1.80 to win by the bookies at the time of kickoff. We must understand that they, of course, had their focus on the huge game against Celje on Tuesday local time. The closing odds reflected this.. Before the first leg against Celje and crushing Komarno, Bratislava defeated Struga, a Macedonian team, 2-1 away from home. It was a Champions League Qualification round 1 2nd leg clash. They did not even have to win this game but proved their class on the pitch – despite not being even close to their best.. In the first leg they scored a great four goals – winning 4-2 in the end. Bratislava were clearly the better team on the pitch. Bratislava can surely improve significantly from these two games! Before these two wins they beat Pertzelka 1-0 at home in a friendly match – despite making one substitution at halftime – and eight in the 2nd half!

Before the 1st leg at home, Celje beat Bravo 2-1 at home as very clear favourites – priced around 1.40 to win by the bookmakers. They deserved to win but it was not an overly impressive performance as a whole.. The visitors, who are a pretty limited team, recorded a quite high 13 goal attempts.. In the first round of Champions League qualification Celje demolished a lame Estonian team, Flora, 7-1 on aggregate – as very big favourites according to the bookmakers. Flora were far from their best -  but still quite low -  level particularly in the first leg at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn. The score was 0-5, Celje, of course, fully deserved to win but I will not give beating the terribly bad Flora too much emphasis here.. I believe that the 7-1 win on aggregate affects the odds too much even in this massive game against a team from "another galaxy" compared to Flora..

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

布拉迪斯拉发VS塞莱

北京时间周三凌晨，在布拉迪斯拉发举行的欧冠资格赛第二轮第二回合比赛中，斯洛文尼亚主场迎战切列。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场相对高质量的比赛，以本次比赛的第二轮标准来看!最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会!我们已经连续五次赢得欧冠/欧冠资格赛的选秀权!我也写了一篇关于其他四场欧冠资格赛的深度预览!客队来自斯洛文尼亚，主队是斯洛伐克。我期待一场非常平衡和有趣的比赛!的确，布拉迪斯拉发是一支相对过于强大的球队。他们通常踢得很活跃，踢得很漂亮，尤其是在主场。他们有几种进攻战术/阵型。然而，这两支球队都不会冒太大的风险，但我不认为他们优秀的主教练会彻底改变战术——尽管赌注非常高。这里的进球预期似乎比博彩公司估计的要大。超过2.5个进球的概率是60.50%。第一回合的开局如我所料——在第11分钟就已经是1-1了。然而，当布拉迪斯拉发的萨维迪斯在第30分钟被罚下时，比赛完全改变了。当然，在那之后，切列控制了球场上的局势。他们有21次进球尝试，Slovan也有一个不错的数字——准确地说是7次。在VAR检查后，切列有几个进球被判无效，但总的来说，我有点失望的是，尽管在60多分钟的比赛中，他们在一人优势的情况下，只射正了6次。毕竟，根据博彩公司的说法，他们在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的。我不同意……我喜欢布拉迪斯拉发用10个人战斗的方式，现在他们有一个很好的机会在他们响亮而忠诚的球迷面前完成任务!东道主在90分钟的比赛中淘汰切列的赔率约为2.00。我们有56.50%的机会再一次获胜!有趣的是，切列有了一个新的主教练，阿尔伯特里埃拉，他之前在斯洛文尼亚做得很好，但我不会在这里强调这个因素。

布拉迪斯拉发显然是斯洛伐克最好的俱乐部，而且已经有很长一段时间了。他们在2023-2024赛季以15分的巨大优势轻松赢得了冠军。Streda !布拉迪斯拉发获得了73分。他们射门76次，失31球。我想强调的是，76个进球显然是耐克联赛中最多的数字!毫无疑问，这个联赛整体上比斯洛文尼亚的甲级联赛要好!切列上赛季以79分的成绩夺得联赛冠军。在2022-2023赛季，他们最终获得了第二名。然而，他们上赛季的预期得分(xPTS)“只有”74.05分。他们进了75个球，丢了很多球——准确地说是34个。的确，作为一个足球强国的冠军，他们的防守并不总是组织得很好。此外，他们的后卫和中场也犯了不少愚蠢的错误。在甲级联赛中，他们不会在很多比赛中犯这样的错误，但像布拉迪斯拉发这样的球队可能会让切列为愚蠢的错误付出代价，或者在球场上不平衡!

我们也不要忘记，根据德国知名的消息来源Transfermarkt.com，布拉迪斯拉发是这里更大的球队——以相当大的差距。事实上，他们球员的身价估计超过2000万欧元。这仍然太低了。斯洛伐克队有三名球员被低估了!另一方面，切列队的价值仅为1290万欧元左右。以我的专业意见，这有点太高了。我想强调的是，总的市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平，但当然，偶尔也会被误导。例如，37岁的里奥·梅西(Leo Messi)仍然非常出色，他效力于美国职业足球大联盟(MLS)的国际迈阿密队(Inter Miami)，他的身价仅为3000万欧元。

布拉迪斯拉发的进攻球员比客队的球员更有创造力，战术上更聪明，技术也更娴熟。布拉迪斯拉发在过去5年左右的时间里也有很多与欧洲强队比赛的经验。布拉迪斯拉发在最近的比赛中赢了四场，他们一定信心十足!在与斯洛文尼亚的首回合比赛后，布拉迪斯拉发以4-1的比分轻松击败了科马诺。他们射门次数更多

在xG中也生成了更多。开球时，博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.8英镑。我们必须明白，他们当然把注意力放在了当地时间周二对阵切列的重要比赛上。最后的赔率反映了这一点……在首回合对阵切列并击败科马诺之前，布拉迪斯拉发客场2-1击败马其顿球队斯特鲁加。这是一场欧冠资格赛第12轮第2回合的比赛。他们甚至不需要赢得这场比赛，但他们在球场上证明了自己的水平——尽管还没有达到最佳状态。在第一回合，他们进了四球，最终以4比2获胜。布拉迪斯拉发显然是场上更好的球队。布拉迪斯拉发肯定能从这两场比赛中得到显著改善!在这两场胜利之前，他们在一场友谊赛中主场1-0击败了佩尔策尔卡——尽管半场换人一次，下半场换人8次!

在首回合主场比赛之前，切列在主场2-1击败布拉沃，成为非常明显的夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.40。他们理应获胜，但从整体上看，他们的表现并不令人印象深刻。客队是一支实力相当有限的球队，他们的射门次数高达13次。在欧冠预选赛的第一轮，切列以总比分7-1击败了实力不强的爱沙尼亚球队弗洛拉，这是博彩公司认为的夺冠热门。弗洛拉远没有达到他们的最佳状态，但仍然相当低水平，特别是在塔林的A. Le Coq竞技场的第一回合。比分是0-5，当然，切列完全配得上胜利，但我不会在这里过多强调击败糟糕透顶的弗洛拉。我相信7-1的总比分对球队的影响太大了，即使是在这场与弗洛拉相比来自“另一个星系”的球队的比赛中。