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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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4/5 last WON in this league! $$$

2024-07-24

比赛分析

解读理由

Ludogorets Razgrad VS Dinamo Minsk



Ludogorets and Dinamo Minsk lock horns in this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 2 first leg battle at Huvepharma Arena in Razgrad early Thursday morning Beijing time . Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a game of somewhat average quality by this competition's standards here.. The biggest reason for this is the big difference in pure class between the two teams.. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity here.. We have won four of the last five picks on the Champions League / CL Qualification! I will post several other picks on UEFA's club competitions later today! The hosts come from Bulgaria the visitors are a Belarussian team. I expect a pretty one-sided clash here.. Ludogorets are clearly the best team in Bulgaria – and have been for a quite long time already. They easily won the championship last season – by a margin of seven points to Cherno More. They grabbed a fine 82 points. Ludogorets netted the ball 87 times and allowed only 24. Both numbers were the best in the Parva Liga!  I want to emphasize that this league is hugely better as a whole than the Belarussian Vysshaya Liga. Dinamo Minsk won the league last season with a total of 69 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was "only" 63.45. At the moment, after 15 rounds of play, they do top the standings with 35 points in their pocket but have declined from last season. Indeed, Zhodino, too, have 35 points to their account.. Neman, in 3rd place, have taken 33 points. I would not be too surprised if Dinamo failed to win the championship this season..


I want to highlight Ludogorets are an extremely strong team at home, in front of their loud and demanding fans. Last season they won 17 of the 18 home games in the Parva Liga! The home advantage is very often even bigger in UEFA's international club competitions than the bookies seem to estimate..  This is the case here as well! In 2022 they challenged two much bigger teams, Italian AS Roma and Spanish Real Betis, surprisingly well! Last season they qualified for the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoffs but lost to a dangerous Swiss team, Servette, 0-1 on aggregate. The first leg was a goalless draw and in the 2nd leg in Bulgaria Servette took an undeserved win! Indeed, Ludogorets recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal. They also generated much more in expected goals (xG) – 1.57-0.67 to be precise. Dinamo Minsk can, realistically speaking, only dream about making it to the Europa League - or Conference League Playoffs.. We must understand that the hosts have a significant edge over Dinamo in all areas of the game, especially in terms of offensive players' individual skill. Odds of close to 2.00 on the -1.5 goals handicap are widely available. We will eagerly take it – with a 58% chance of winning - once again!


Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Ludogorets are the bigger team here - by a huge margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated around 53 million euros. This is still a little too low though.. The Dinamo Minsk squad, on the other hand, is valued at only about 6.9 million. This is, in my expert opinion, still a bit too high.. Having said that I want to emphasize, the total market values very often reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course, sometimes be misleading as well.. For example, a still extremely good player, Lionel Messi, 37, who plays for Inter Miami in the MLS in the USA, is valued at "only'' 30 million euros. Ludogorets have won seven of their last eight games and five home matches in a row. In their last game they beat CSKA Sofia, a dangerous team, 1-0 at home despite surely having their minds in the very important game against Dinamo Minsk,. I want to mention that  CSKA Sofia are a dangerous team, who ended up in in 3rd place in the Parva Liga last season. Before this they lost to Dinamo Batumi 0-1 on the road despite recording more shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. However, I will not give this result much emphasis.. It was a Champions League Qualification 2nd leg clash and the result was, in fact, a good one for Ludogorets. Indeed, they had won the 1st leg 3-1 at home. In this game they recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-2) as well as shots off target. Before this they crushed a decent team from Romania, Univ. Craiova, 4-1 at home despite substituting all 11 players at halftime/ in the 2nd half! On the 26th of June they beat a dangerous Swiss team, St. Gallen 2-0, at a neutral location – despite again making a huge number of substitutions.. Both of these games were, of course, friendlies. No, Dinamo Minsk have not lost a game since May but have not faced an opponent of even close to Ludogorets' caliber for ages! I will not be fooled by their recent (fine) record! In their last game they beat Pyunik Yerevan, a pretty lowly Armenian team, 1-0 on the road through Gavrilovich's very late goal – from a penalty kick. It was a Champions League qualification 2nd leg clash. The first leg, played at a different stadium than usual - Mezokovesdi Varosi Stadion – it was a goalless draw. Yes, Minsk deserved to qualify over the Armenians but the opponent was not at their best and I will not give the 1-0 win on aggregate much emphasis. The Minsk offense lacked individual skill, speed and creativity -  and against Ludogorets in Bulgaria there is a big chance that they fail to score..



GOOD LUCK and thanks to my growing fan-base!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

拉兹格勒VS明斯克迪纳摩



北京时间周四凌晨,在拉兹格勒的Huvepharma体育馆,卢多戈雷茨和明斯克迪纳摩将在欧冠资格赛第二轮首回合的比赛中交锋。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场比赛在这个比赛的标准下有点平均的质量。造成这种情况的最大原因是两队在纯粹级别上的巨大差异。最重要的是,我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会……我们在欧冠/欧冠资格赛的最后5次选秀中赢得了4次!我将在今天晚些时候发布欧足联俱乐部比赛的其他几个选择!东道主来自保加利亚,客队是一支白俄罗斯队。我预计这将是一场一边倒的冲突。卢多戈雷茨显然是保加利亚最好的球队,而且已经持续了很长时间。上个赛季,他们以7分的优势轻松赢得了冠军。他们得了82分。卢多戈雷茨进球87次,失球24次。这两个数字都是帕瓦西甲最好的!我想强调的是,这个联赛整体上比白俄罗斯的维沙亚联赛要好得多。明斯克迪纳摩上赛季以69分夺得联赛冠军,但他们的期望积分(xPTS)“只有”63.45分。目前,经过15轮的比赛,他们以35分的积分排名第一,但与上赛季相比有所下降。事实上,佐迪诺队也有35分。排名第三的内曼得了33分。如果迪纳摩本赛季没能赢得冠军,我不会太惊讶。


我想强调的是,卢多戈雷茨在主场是一支非常强大的球队,在他们喧闹而苛刻的球迷面前。上赛季他们在帕尔瓦西甲的18场主场比赛中赢了17场!在欧足联的国际俱乐部比赛中,主场优势往往比博彩公司估计的还要大。这里的情况也是如此!在2022年,他们挑战了两支更大的球队,意大利的罗马和西班牙的皇家贝蒂斯,令人惊讶的好!上个赛季,他们获得了欧联杯季后赛的资格,但却以总比分0比1输给了危险的瑞士球队塞尔维特。第一回合是一场0比0的平局,第二回合对阵保加利亚,塞尔维特取得了一场不应得的胜利!事实上,卢多戈雷茨记录了更多的进球尝试和射门。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)——准确地说是1.57-0.67。明斯克迪纳摩,现实地说,只能梦想着进入欧联杯或联盟联赛季后赛。我们必须明白,东道主在比赛的各个方面都比迪纳摩有明显的优势,尤其是在进攻球员的个人技术方面。在-1.5个进球的不利条件下,赔率接近2.00。我们将热切地接受它——有58%的获胜机会——再一次!


让我们也记住,根据一个著名的和受人尊敬的德国网站,Transfermarkt.com,卢多戈雷茨是这里更大的球队-以巨大的优势。事实上,他们球员的身价估计在5300万欧元左右。这还是有点太低了…另一方面,明斯克迪纳摩队的价值仅为690万欧元。以我的专业意见,这还是有点太高了。话虽如此,我想强调的是,总的市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平,但当然,有时也会被误导。例如,37岁的莱昂内尔·梅西(Lionel Messi)仍然非常出色,他效力于美国职业足球大联盟(MLS)的国际迈阿密队(Inter Miami),他的身价“仅”为3000万欧元。卢多戈雷特队在最近的8场比赛中取得了7场胜利,并且连续5场主场比赛获胜。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场1-0击败了索非亚中央陆军,这是一支危险的球队,尽管他们在对阵明斯克迪纳摩的重要比赛中表现得很出色。我想说的是索菲亚中央陆军是一支危险的球队,上赛季他们在帕尔瓦西甲排名第三。在此之前,尽管他们有更多的射门、进攻和危险进攻,但他们还是在客场0-1输给了巴umi迪纳摩。然而,我不会给这个结果太多的强调。这是欧冠资格赛第二回合的比赛,结果对卢多戈雷茨来说是一个不错的结果。事实上,他们在主场3-1赢了第一回合。在这场比赛中,他们的射门次数、射正次数(6比2)和射偏次数都更多。在此之前,他们在主场4-1击败了来自罗马尼亚的克拉约瓦大学,尽管他们在半场和下半场换下了全部11名球员!6月26日,他们在一个中立的场地以2比0击败了危险的瑞士队圣加仑队——尽管他们再次进行了大量的换人。

。当然,这两场比赛都是友谊赛。不,明斯克迪纳摩自5月以来没有输过一场比赛,但已经很久没有遇到过接近卢多戈雷茨水平的对手了!我不会被他们最近的(良好)记录所愚弄!在上一场比赛中,他们凭借加夫里洛维奇最后时刻的点球,在客场以1比0击败了一支实力不强的亚美尼亚队Pyunik Yerevan。这是欧冠资格赛第二回合的比赛。第一回合,在一个与往常不同的球场——梅佐科维斯迪瓦罗西球场进行,双方0比0战平。是的,明斯克有资格击败亚美尼亚队出线,但对手状态不佳,所以我不会太强调1-0的总比分。明斯克的进攻缺乏个人技术、速度和创造力——对阵保加利亚的卢多戈雷茨,他们很有可能无法得分。



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