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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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GREAT results in this league! $$$

2024-07-23

比赛分析

解读理由

Ferencvarosi TC VS The New Saints



Ferencvaros welcome TNS for this UEFA Champions League Qualification round 2 first leg battle at Groupama Arena in Budapest very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a game of quite average quality by this competition's standards here. The main reason for this is the huge difference in class between the two teams.. Most importantly, we have yet another very interesting betting opportunity here.. The hosts are a Hungarian team, the visitors come from Wales. I expect a very one-sided game here. The hosts are expected to put big pressure on the visitors' vulnerable defence right from the kickoff! They have very loud, enthusiastic and demanding fans by European standards. About a year ago they lost to a very small team from the Faroe Islands, Klaksvik, at home 0-3 which was an extremely surprising and humiliating result for Ferencvaros.. It was one of the biggest upsets in international club games in Europe last season and this result probably still affects the odds here to some extent.. The players surely remember this and should be very motivated to not allow anything like that to happen again.. The difference between these two teams is gigantic, in all areas of the game.. The hosts are at a different level especially in terms of individual skill. The visitors do play organized football and fight hard but this will most probably not be enough here. Moreover, The Hungarian OTP Bank Liga is of much better quality as a whole than the Welsh Cymru Premier.. Most talented young Welsh players move to "abroad" -  especially to England -  to build a professional career. Furthermore, According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Ferencvaros are the bigger team here - by a massive margin.. Indeed, their players are valued at an estimated around 58 million euros.The TNS squad, on the other hand, is valued at only about 2.70 million. This is, in my expert opinion, still too high though.. Three of their players are overvalued. The 2.70 million is very low for the Champions League Qualification standards!


Based on my in-depth expert analysis - with the expected lineups, taking the massive home advantage into account, Ferencvaros are massive favourites here. As this is only the first leg the hosts are motivated to score as many goals as possible as in Wales the hosts will surely be a much more dangerous opponent.. I would expect them to be aggressive until they lead by a margin of at least three goals.. The favourite betting option here is the Ferencvaros -2.5 goals handicap option. The probability of winning is 53%. The fans wanting to go for a more probable winner can take the -1.5 goals handicap option with a 73.50% chance of winning! Ferencvaros were very dominant in the OTP Bank Liga last season, taking an impressive 74 points. Paks, who finished in 2nd place, grabbed only 58 points. TNS, too, won the very lowly Cymru Premier League easily last season. They did not lose a single game (30 rounds) but I will not let this fool me. They took 92 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was "only" 83.45. 

Ferencvaros have not lost any of their last six games, despite facing mainly pretty tough opponents. In their last game they played a 2-2 draw at a neutral location. The opponent was a decent English Premier League team, West Ham. West Ham are a much bigger team than Ferencvaros in terms of players' estimated total market value. Moreover, the English Premier League is the best league on the planet. Before this Ferenvaros comfortably beat a decent Croatian team, Istra 1961, at a neutral location. The format: was 2x60 minutes. Both matches were friendlies. TNS, on the other hand, played a 1-1 draw with a very lowly English team, Macclesfield, in their last match. It was a friendly game. Before this it was a 1-1 draw away from home against a pretty poor team from Montenegro, Dedic. TNS were solid favourites to win this game. It was a Champions League Qualification 1st round battle. In the first leg, at home, TNS won 3-0 and deserved to win. However, the final score is misleading.. The ball possession was 53-47% and the visitors had a decent 10 goal attempts. They also recorded more shots off goal. TNS had many more shots on goal though. Both teams had 92 attacks. I want to highlight that Dedic played even below their normal, already pretty lame, level! I will not give beating Dedic too much emphasis against a team who are "from another galaxy" compared to Dedic!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Ferencvarosi VS新圣徒队



北京时间周三凌晨,费伦瓦罗斯欢迎TNS参加欧冠资格赛第二轮首回合比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场以这项比赛的标准来看质量相当一般的比赛。造成这种情况的主要原因是两队在级别上的巨大差异。最重要的是,我们还有另一个非常有趣的赌博机会……东道主是匈牙利队,客队来自威尔士。我预计这将是一场一边倒的比赛。预计东道主将从开球开始就对客队脆弱的防线施加巨大压力!按照欧洲的标准,他们拥有非常大声、热情和苛刻的球迷。大约一年前,他们在主场0-3输给了来自法罗群岛的一支非常小的球队Klaksvik,这对费伦瓦罗斯来说是一个非常令人惊讶和耻辱的结果。这是上赛季欧洲国际俱乐部比赛中最令人失望的比赛之一,这个结果可能在某种程度上仍然影响着这里的赔率。球员们肯定记得这一点,应该非常有动力,不允许类似的事情再次发生。这两支球队在比赛的各个方面都有巨大的差异。东道主处于不同的水平,特别是在个人技术方面。客队踢得很有组织,也很努力,但这很可能还不够。此外,匈牙利OTP银行联赛整体质量比威尔士Cymru Premier好得多。大多数有天赋的年轻威尔士球员都去了“国外”——尤其是英格兰——来建立自己的职业生涯。此外,根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com,费伦瓦罗斯在这里是一支更大的球队——以巨大的优势。事实上,他们球员的身价估计在5800万欧元左右。另一方面,TNS队的价值仅为270万英镑。在我的专家看来,这仍然太高了。他们的三个球员被高估了。270万对于欧冠资格标准来说是非常低的!


根据我深入的专家分析——考虑到预期的阵容,考虑到巨大的主场优势,费伦瓦罗斯是这里的大热门。由于这只是首回合比赛,主队希望尽可能多地进球,因为在威尔士,主队肯定是一个更危险的对手。我认为他们会很有侵略性,直到他们领先至少3个球。这里最受欢迎的投注选项是费伦斯瓦罗斯-2.5个进球障碍选项。获胜的概率是53%。想要选择更有可能获胜的球迷可以选择-1.5个进球障碍选项,有73.50%的获胜机会!费伦瓦罗斯上赛季在OTP银行联赛中占据统治地位,取得了令人印象深刻的74分。排名第二的帕克斯只得到58分。上个赛季,TNS也轻松赢得了非常低水平的英超联赛。他们没有输过一场比赛(30轮),但我不会被这种情况愚弄。虽然取得了92分,但期望分数(xPTS)“只有”83.45分。

费伦斯瓦罗斯队在过去的六场比赛中没有输过一场,尽管面对的主要是相当强硬的对手。在上一场比赛中,他们在一个中立的场地打了一个2比2的平局。对手是一支不错的英超球队,西汉姆。就球员的总市场价值而言,西汉姆比费伦瓦罗斯要大得多。此外,英超联赛是这个星球上最好的联赛。在此之前,费伦瓦罗斯在一个中立的地点轻松击败了一支不错的克罗地亚球队——1961年的伊斯特拉。格式为2x60分钟。两场比赛都是友谊赛。另一方面,TNS队在上一场比赛中与实力不强的英格兰球队麦克尔斯菲尔德队1-1战平。这是一场友谊赛。在此之前,我们在客场1-1战平了一支很差的黑山球队,迪迪奇。TNS是赢得这场比赛的大热门。这是一场欧冠资格赛第一轮的比赛。在首回合主场,TNS以3-0获胜,他们理应获胜。然而,最后的分数是误导性的……控球率是53比47%,客队有10次进球尝试。他们也记录了更多的射门。不过TNS的射门次数更多。两队都有92次进攻。我想强调的是,Dedic的表现甚至低于他们的正常水平!我不会过多强调击败迪迪奇的球队是“来自另一个星系”。

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