Netherlands VS England

Netherlands and England lock horns in this EURO 2024 Playoffs semifinal battle at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund very early Thursday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, sky-high and a particularly open game is not on the cards here. However, the Dutch play more active football than for example France, Portugal – or England – at least so far in this tournament. The goal expectancy here is quite low but still a little higher than the bookies estimate at the time of writing this analysis early Tuesday morning Beijing time. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of much better than average quality by this tournament's standards here. Most importantly, we have a very lucrative betting opportunity to make even more profit betting on this big tournament! Indeed, we have won five of the six last picks on this tournament. Moreover, we have won five picks in a row and 10 of the last eleven picks. More high-quality analyses will be posted on Tuesday and Wednesday!

Firstly I want to mention that England have unarguably been a disappointment performance-wise in this tournament. The positive thing is that they have potential for much better performances! Despite all the justified criticism we should remember that England have not lost any of the five games in this tournament.. Let's first take a look at England's three games in the group stage.. They defeated Serbia 1-0 in round 1 but generated only 0.51 in expected goals (xG). However, England defended in an extremely organized way – allowing Serbia only 0.31 in xG.. England had more shots on goal (3-1) and recorded one more attack than the Serbs. England were priced around 1.50 to win this game on the betting market. After the game I had to admit that it was, in all honesty, too low. In round 2, against Denmark, it was a 1-1 draw and England did generate a little more in xG. However, again their odds of around 1.70 to win did not reflect the events on the pitch. It was a pretty balanced clash where both teams seemed to be pretty satisfied with a draw. Indeed, in the 2nd half both teams were mainly aiming to minimize risks.. Both teams had 41 attacks in this relatively low-tempo and uneventful match. In round 3 England faced Slovenia and it was a goalless draw. It was yet another pretty defensive game where England knew that with a draw they would qualify for the Playoffs - and have a big chance of winning the group – as they did! Slovenia seemed to be very happy with a draw as they were aware of the fact that with three points they would have a very big chance earning a place in the Playoffs as UEFA had decided that the best four 3rd-placed teams also qualify. I want to highlight that despite not firing on all cylinders England were the much better team in this game! They had 72% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts (12-5), shots on goal, shots off goal, corner kicks (6-0). total passes (755-271), completed passes and attacks – 57-19. The xG numbers were 1.12-0.18. Let's not forget that Slovenia forced Portugal, a strong team, into extra time but lost in penalties in the 1st round of Playoffs.. The England fans have, completely rightfully, been disappointed with their team's performances in this tournament so far – especially with the often ultra-cautious style of play their head coach Gareth Southgate has chosen. I have not been surprised with England's tactics so far but have, in all honesty, been a little disappointed with their performances. It is very rare to spot lucrative odds on England in any international tournament but this is the case here. It seems that mocking England's performances has gone too far in the (football media) now and millions of bettors seem to be thinking that "England are simply terrible". This is a classic example of the media and recreational bettors over-reacting to a few matches. However, I want to emphasize that the main rationale behind this pick is to oppose the overvalued Netherlands!

Even the biggest bookies have made surprisingly many mistakes with their odds in this tournament - many more than in EURO 2020 which was played in several different locations in 2021 because of the Covid-19 crisis. In the EURO 2020 England reached the final - despite not being very impressive in many matches. They eventually lost to Italy in penalties 1-2 though. In the World Cup 2022 which was played in Qatar England lost to a very strong team, France, 1-2 in the semifinals. Kane missed a penalty in the 2nd half when the score was 1-2.. France were only moderately the better team in this match. The French were very close to winning the tournament as Kolo-Muani had an excellent scoring chance late into the extra time! I want to highlight that in both of these tournaments England significantly improved their level in the Playoffs – from their group stage performances.. No, based on both teams' performances in this tournament alone I would not bet on England to win but the potential for improvement - or risk of decline are among the key factors in professional football betting! Odds of around 2.60-2.70 on England getting the job done in 90 minutes of play are widely available on the betting market. We will gladly place a bet on England with these odds. Based on my strongly data-based in-depth expert analysis I expect smart money from professional independent sports bettors and betting syndicates to pile up on England – resulting in odds dropping. Indeed, I recommend my fans to place the bet as soon as possible! Having said that I am sure if England are able to reach the level they performed at in Qatar but that would also not be necessary to beat the Netherlands here.. I want to highlight that many of their young players, especially Saka and Bellingham, are much better individually than in the World Cup in November and December of 2022!

In the EURO 2024 Qualification Group C England played very well, topping the group standings with an impressive 20 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was somewhat lower.. Italy finished in 2nd place and Ukraine ended up in 3rd place. I mentioned earlier that it is rare to find lucrative odds on England and I want to shortly explain the reasons I believe are behind this.. The English Premier League is unarguably the best league in the world and is also the most popular one in terms of media coverage and the number of people watching it on television. The betting volumes in this league are also very high.. Football enthusiasts and recreational bettors are familiar with the best English players - and consequently overvalue them - and the English national team.. Furthermore, betting is a very popular hobby in England and as this country has a pretty large population - and England have a lot of fans all over the world as well. As a result, the bookmakers are "forced" to offer England winning lower odds than they probably would have based on their (actual) probability estimation.. Indeed, the bookmakers have to manage risk! On paper England are, of course, the stronger team here – by a significant margin. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the England squad has an estimated market value of over 1.50 billion euros. The Netherlands squad, on the other hand, is valued at around 815 million but this is too high! Some 680-700 million would be a more realistic number.. Having said that I want to emphasize, the total market values very often reflect the teams' level on the pitch well but can, of course, be misleading as well.. For example, a still extremely good player, Lionel Messi, 37, who plays for Inter Miami in the MLS in the USA, is valued at "only" 30 million euros..

Talking of the potential for big improvement - England have players like Jude Bellingham, who was extremely good with Real Madrid, the UEFA Champions League and LaLiga winners in the 2023-2024 season! He improved a lot compared to the previous season when he played for Dortmund. England also have Manchester City's ultra-talented Phil Foden, the player of the season 2023-2024 in the Premier League! However, in Southgate's system/formation he unfortunately cannot use his strengths nearly optimally. It is possible he will not be in the starting eleven here.. There is also Arsenal's star Saka - who has arguably been disappointing in this tournament as a whole though. Let's also not forget one of the best strikers in the world, Harry Kane. He scored a lot of goals for the biggest club in Germany Bayern Munich, last season. Unfortunately for England, so far in this tournament Kane has not been at his best - yet.. There have been some comments/opinions circulating in the media about Bellingham and Kane looking a bit tired especially in and after England's last game. I do not necessarily disagree but these world-class athletes will surely know exactly what to do to be at their best against the Netherlands. They are clearly very committed to "bringing the football home" as the English people say when talking about winning an EURO tournament. I will give this fatigue factor only marginal emphasis. Indeed, I believe almost all England – and Dutch players are somewhat fatigued - and can carry some minor injuries - after a long, grueling season..

I want to highlight that in their previous game, against Switzerland, England played much better than in the first four games! They were more active and took a little more risks than before. This was very promising sign in my opinion! Saka raised his level significantly from previous games but can still improve significantly! He scored a fine goal in the 80th minute to level the score (1-1). After that England had a few somewhat promising chances to score but eventually penalties were needed. All England's penalty takers scored – giving Switzerland's excellent goalkeeper hardly any chance at all! The England players, of course, looked relaxed and confident after the game. It seems that they have an excellent team spirit and by making it to the semifinals they have at least saved themselves from being mocked in the media. Losing to the Netherlands would not be by any means an embarrassment. Yes, the Dutch fans are loud but England and Turkey have had the loudest and most loyal fans in this tournament. I expect a little more English people – or fans cheering for England from other countries – than Dutch fans to be at the stadium here. I want to emphasize that against the Swiss, England did definitely deserve the narrow win. Indeed, they had more goal attempts, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks and looked as if they could do much more - if only given permission by Southgate to do so.. However, the strong Swiss team could also easily have qualified.. They played a little better than I expected in this match. Let's remember the Swiss comfortably beat Italy, the reigning champions of Europe, in their previous game – as underdogs on the betting market. In the EURO 2020 the Swiss defeated France, the reigning World Champions at the time, in the Playoffs as big underdogs on the betting market. England were widely criticized after this game – once again but in my opinion we should give credit to the very well-organized Swiss who also had some skilled individuals..

England's main problem has been England playing way too slow, predictable and defensive football.. As a result, England have not been able to benefit from their super stars' individual skill! Yes, Bellingham did score the 1-1 goal against Slovakia in the injury time though. It was a fine individual effort, no denying that! England were, however, only about two minutes away from being eliminated! Bettors probably still remember this (too) well – at least it has been discussed endlessly in the English football media.. We should remember that it is, after all, not rare at all for the much better team, with highly skilled players, to score in injury time.. For example Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, the German champions, did this many times last season – and in previous seasons! Slovakia took the lead in the 1st half and England, despite having a relatively high ball possession, looked oddly clueless in the 2nd half, especially in the last approximately 10-15 minutes! They were unable to create many promising scoring chances – or even that intense pressure on Slovakia's defence. In the last 5-10 minutes game they, quite incredibly, declined to an almost desperate-looking "just deliver the ball into the penalty area and hope for the best '' kind of tactic. Yes, it was a terrible performance from England, taking the rather high expectations into account – but a professional bettor will never react too heavily to one – or even two or three games/performances. We must also give credit to Slovakia who played clearly above their normal level. In the extra time England were clearly the better team and Kane scored the winning 2-1 goal. I want to give credit to Chelsea's new star, Cole Palmer, who was pretty good against Slovakia and should play more minutes.. I would not be surprised if he was to be in the starting eleven against the Netherlands.. England recorded three more goal attempts than the opponent. Yes, Slovakia generated more in xG in the 90+30 minutes of play – 1.93-1.36 to be precise. Sometimes this happens in football but England were still the better team on the pitch as a whole. Both teams had seven shots off target.

Going into this tournament England looked like a rather imbalanced team - on paper I mean. Their goalkeeper, Pickford, is only a mediocre goalkeeper for this level.. He plays for Everton, a worse-than-average Premier League club. Furthermore, on paper England's defence is worse than it has been for a long – especially compared to the other elite national teams.. However, we must understand that the Netherlands are not an elite team, Spain, France and - as well as the already eliminated Germany are.. All these three teams - as well as Portugal and England - were priced much lower than the Netherlands to win the tournament before it kicked off.. I want to stress that I have not seen anything to raise the Netherlands power rating! I still rate them as the 7th-best team in this tournament behind France, Spain, Germany, England, Portugal - and Belgium who pushed France hard in the first round of the Playoffs.. For clarification, this rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting lineup – excluding the motivation factor as well as the possible fatigue – caused by a demanding schedule.. They are in 7th in the FIFA Ranking which is too high. They should not be in the top-10 as there are many strong South American countries, especially Argentina and Brazil.. England, on the other hand, are in 5th place in the ranking. The English defence has been better than I expected, mainly thanks to the whole team defending in a very organized way - making hardly any mistakes. Let's not forget that France were pretty passive and "boring" in the World Cups of 2018 and 2022 - and have been in this tournament.. However, they too, have made it to the semifinals and face Spain this evening Germany time. Indeed, France and England are not playing to entertain the fans – they want to win – no matter how "ugly"! "Boring" teams are often good teams to invest money in as recreational bettors usually prefer betting on more entertaining teams, like the Netherlands to win..

Before taking a look at the Netherlands I want to mention that even Manchester United's Harry Maguire would have been an important player for England, despite being erratic - and many online memes and jokes that mock him circulating in recent years.. In the England team, only Manchester City's Kyle Walker is an actual elite defender.. He has been even better than I would have expected in this tournament! For example Trippier, Guehi and Stones are far from an elite defender but the England defence works extremely well as a unit and the Netherlands do not have world-class offensive players - like for example K. Mbappe. Should England make it to the finals their defence will surely be put to a big test though.. In my opinion Southgate's style of play is simply too pessimistic and cautious. I must admit that do not fully trust him in terms of tactical skills but seems to have earned the players' trust which is, of course, crucial.. However, he is definitely better than the Netherland's head coach, Ronald Koeman, who is very poor tactically – for this level at least. He was a failure with Barcelona a few years ago and was sacked pretty quickly.. I also do not trust him at all as a leader. He is among the worst five coaches in this tournament in my expert opinion!

Nowadays the Dutch do not play beautiful, ultra-offensive football anymore but are still a more offensive team than any of England's previous five opponents.. Their defence has "big names", like Liverpool's Virgil van Dijk but have not convinced me in this area of the game in the tournament.. They allowed three goals against Austria and were very lucky to avoid allowing a goal against France, who were without Mbappe. Keeping a clean sheet against very poor Romania does not excite me ahead of this massive game against England! I believe they will be at least to some extent active – "forcing" England to do the same as England's defence, as mentioned before, is not world-class.. England will surely want to avoid ending up defending near their own goal – allowing the dangerous Dutch, for example M. Depay, to have big ball possession % and a chance to endlessly wait for the English defence to make a mistake.. In a "normal" football game where both teams try to create chances instead of mainly waiting for the opponent to make a mistake - like in France vs Belgium and Portugal vs France - England's much better than the Netherlands' offensive players are expected to have more space. This should result in a decent number of xG..

The Netherland's did not impress me at all in their previous game, despite beating Turkey 2-1. de Vrij scored the 1-1 goal in the 70th minute and the 2-1 goal was an own goal by M. Muldur. I lowered the Netherland's power rating after this game – not substantially though. Before this game they had been nothing special but okay – playing more or less as the level I expected - perhaps even marginally better.. However, they have faced only one big football country, France, in this tournament. Turkey, the very clear underdogs on the betting market, recorded many more goal attempts (15-11), shots off goal and corner kicks than the Dutch! Moreover, they generated 1.45 in xG – the Netherlands managed only a very disappointing 0.81! Yes, Turkey were a little better than expected in this game but the Dutch should have been able to test - and hurt - the somewhat shaky Turkey defence much more! Indeed, even Georgia, a limited team, generated quite a lot in expected goals (xG) against Turkey.. The very important Frenkie de Jong was ruled out of this tournament through injury. The Barcelona, one of the biggest clubs on the planet, midfielder has suffered from recurring ankle injuries. In my expert opinion the bookmakers had over-reacted to his absence in the first four games but, looking back, against Turkey the Dutch would definitely have needed him! The same is true against England, of course. I want to highlight that England are a very clearly better team than Turkey!

Let's take a look at the Netherlands' matches in this tournament: They beat Poland 1-2 in the first group stage game and deserved the three points - despite being far from their best level. The Poles, a lowly team in terms of pure, were surprisingly active – moderately better than expected as a whole in this match. Indeed, on a good day Poland can be a difficult opponent. Even so, the Dutch had 65% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous passes. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 1.83-0.87 in Netherlands' favour. In their second match they took a point from France, even recording one more shot on target. Again I want to mention that France played without Kylian Mbappe - one of the best footballers in the world which hurt their offense a lot.. Yes, the Dutch could have won but that would have, after all, been an undeserved three points.. Early in the first half the Netherlands came close to netting the ball but had they scored France probably would have become much more active and probably would have scored at least once.. In the second half both teams seemed to be rather satisfied with a draw as they had won their opening matches. France did, however, generate significantly more in xG in this clash!

In their last group stage game the Netherlands lost 2-3 to Austria but I did not over-react to this defeat.. Austria were good – and definitely better than expected in this game - the Netherlands played slightly below their normal level. Especially midfielder J. Veerman, who is not a bad player and plays for a big Dutch club PSV Eindhoven, looked almost like an amateur footballer and was consequently substituted off the pitch - replaced with Simons already in the 35th minute. His performance - with an incredibly big number of poor assists - was among the worst I have seen in a top-level international tournament for a long time.. Austria, as I had anticipated, used a style of play - merciless (counter)pressing - that was very difficult for the Netherlands to deal with.. Despite Joey Veerman's terrible mistakes - and an overall lame performance - the Netherlands recorded more goal attempts and shots off goal. The Netherlands also generated more than Austria in xG. Austria, however, had many more shots on target though – 5-2. I need to mention that Austria, an overvalued team on the betting market, were, at the end of the day, nothing special and were defeated by Turkey 2-1 in the first Playoffs round. Yes, the Netherlands were strong in their last game, crushing Romania – who are, in all honesty, a very limited team and were not even at their best in this game.. The Dutch fully deserved the 3-0 win. They recorded many more goal attempts (24-6), shots on target (6-1), shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks. Moreover, the Netherlands generated a fine 2.93 in xG – they defended very well, allowing Romania only 0.22 in xG. However, we should not get overly excited by this over one of the worst teams in this tournament – who had a lot of luck qualifying for the Playoffs! Most importantly, we should not even seriously compare Romania and England!

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荷兰VS英格兰

北京时间周四凌晨，荷兰队和英格兰队将在多特蒙德的信号伊杜纳公园打响2024年欧洲杯季后赛半决赛。当然，赌注是巨大的，一场特别公开的游戏是不可能的。然而，至少到目前为止，荷兰队比法国、葡萄牙或英格兰等国踢得更积极。在北京时间周二凌晨撰写这篇分析时，对进球的预期相当低，但仍略高于博彩公司的估计。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比本次比赛的平均质量要好得多的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个非常有利可图的投注机会，使更多的利润投注在这个大锦标赛!事实上，我们在本届锦标赛的最后六场比赛中赢了五场。此外，我们已经连续5次赢得选秀权，并且在最近11次选秀中赢得了10次。更多高质量的分析将在周二和周三发布!

首先我想说的是，英格兰队在本届比赛中的表现无疑令人失望。积极的一面是，他们有潜力取得更好的成绩!尽管所有的批评都是合理的，但我们应该记住，英格兰队在本届锦标赛的五场比赛中没有输过一场。让我们先来看看英格兰在小组赛的三场比赛。他们在第一轮以1比0击败塞尔维亚，但预期进球数仅为0.51 (xG)。然而，英格兰的防守非常有组织，只给塞尔维亚0.31分。英格兰的射门次数比塞尔维亚多(3比1)，进攻次数也比塞尔维亚多1次。在博彩市场上，英格兰队赢得这场比赛的价格约为1.50英镑。比赛结束后，我不得不承认，说实话，它太低了。在第二轮对阵丹麦的比赛中，双方1-1战平，英格兰队在上一场比赛中确实创造了更多的机会。然而，他们的赔率约为1.70，并没有反映球场上的情况。这是一场相当平衡的比赛，两队似乎都对平局很满意。事实上，在下半场，两支球队的主要目标是尽量减少风险。在这场节奏相对较低、平淡无奇的比赛中，两支球队都有41次进攻。在第三轮比赛中，英格兰对阵斯洛文尼亚，双方0比0战平。这又是一场防守十足的比赛，英格兰队知道，只要一场平局，他们就有资格进入季后赛——而且很有可能赢得小组头名——他们确实做到了!斯洛文尼亚似乎对平局感到非常高兴，因为他们意识到，如果得到3分，他们将有很大的机会进入季后赛，因为欧足联已经决定，最好的4支第三名球队也有资格进入季后赛。我想强调的是，尽管没有火力全开，英格兰队在这场比赛中表现得更好!他们有72%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(12-5)，射正，射偏，角球(6-0)。总传球数(755-271)，完成传球和进攻数- 57-19。xG值为1.12 ~ 0.18。别忘了，在季后赛第一轮，斯洛文尼亚把强队葡萄牙逼进了加时赛，却在点球大战中输掉了比赛。到目前为止，英格兰球迷完全有理由对球队在本届杯赛中的表现感到失望，尤其是他们的主教练加雷斯·索斯盖特(Gareth Southgate)选择的那种通常极其谨慎的比赛风格。到目前为止，我对英格兰队的战术并不感到惊讶，但说实话，我对他们的表现有点失望。在任何国际赛事中，英格兰队都很难获得丰厚的赔率，但这里的情况就是如此。现在(足球媒体)对英格兰队表现的嘲笑似乎太过分了，数百万的投注者似乎认为“英格兰队太糟糕了”。这是媒体和娱乐投注者对几场比赛反应过度的典型例子。然而，我想强调的是，这个选择背后的主要理由是反对被高估的荷兰!

即使是最大的博彩公司在本届欧洲杯的赔率上也犯了很多令人惊讶的错误——比2020年欧洲杯的赔率要高得多。由于新冠肺炎危机，2020年欧洲杯在2021年的几个不同地点举行。在2020年欧洲杯上，英格兰队进入了决赛——尽管在许多比赛中表现不佳。他们最终在点球大战中以1比2不敌意大利。在卡塔尔举行的2022年世界杯上，英格兰在半决赛中以1比2输给了强队法国队。凯恩在下半场比分为1比2时罚丢了一个点球。法国队在这场比赛中只是略胜一筹。由于科洛-穆阿尼的出色表现，法国队差一点就能赢得比赛

加时赛快要结束的时候，我没有得分的机会!我想强调的是，在这两届比赛中，英格兰队在季后赛中的水平都有了显著提高——从小组赛的表现来看。不，根据两支球队在这次比赛中的表现，我不会赌英格兰会赢，但进步的潜力或下降的风险是职业足球博彩的关键因素之一!在博彩市场上，英格兰队在90分钟内完成比赛的赔率约为2.60:2.70。我们很乐意以这样的赔率赌英格兰队。根据我基于数据的深度专家分析，我预计来自专业独立体育投注者和博彩集团的聪明资金将堆积在英格兰身上——导致赔率下降。的确，我建议我的粉丝们尽快下注!话虽如此，我相信如果英格兰能达到他们在卡塔尔的水平，但在这里击败荷兰队也没有必要。我想强调的是，他们的许多年轻球员，尤其是萨卡和贝灵汉，他们的个人表现比2022年11月和12月的世界杯要好得多! 在2024年欧洲杯预选赛C组中，英格兰队表现出色，以令人印象深刻的20分排名小组第一。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)略低。意大利排名第二，乌克兰排名第三。我之前提到过，英格兰队的赔率很少，我想简短地解释一下我认为这背后的原因。毫无疑问，英超联赛是世界上最好的联赛，就媒体报道和电视观看人数而言，英超联赛也是最受欢迎的联赛。这个联赛的投注量也非常高……足球爱好者和娱乐投注者熟悉最好的英国球员——因此高估了他们——以及英国国家队。此外，博彩在英国是一项非常受欢迎的爱好，因为这个国家有相当多的人口，而且英格兰在世界各地也有很多球迷。因此，博彩公司“被迫”提供英格兰获胜的赔率低于他们基于(实际)概率估计的赔率。事实上，博彩公司必须管理风险!从纸面上看，英格兰当然是一支实力更强的球队，而且差距很大。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，英格兰队的市值估计超过15亿欧元。另一方面，荷兰队的价值约为8.15亿欧元，但这个数字太高了!大约6.8 -7亿是更现实的数字。话虽如此，我想强调的是，总的市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平，但当然，也可能被误导。例如，一个仍然非常优秀的球员，37岁的莱昂内尔·梅西，效力于美国职业足球大联盟的迈阿密国际，他的价值“只有”3000万欧元。

谈到巨大进步的潜力——英格兰有像裘德·贝灵汉这样的球员，他在皇家马德里踢得非常好，在2023-2024赛季获得了欧洲冠军联赛和西甲联赛的冠军!他比上个赛季在多特蒙德的时候进步了很多。英格兰还有曼城的超级天才菲尔·福登，他是2023-2024赛季英超最佳球员!然而，不幸的是，在索斯盖特的体系/阵型中，他无法充分发挥自己的优势。他有可能不会进入首发11人名单。还有阿森纳的球星萨卡——可以说他在本届杯赛中表现得令人失望。我们也不要忘记世界上最好的前锋之一，哈里·凯恩。上个赛季，他为德国最大的俱乐部拜仁慕尼黑进了很多球。不幸的是，对于英格兰队来说，到目前为止，凯恩还没有达到他的最佳状态。媒体上流传着一些评论和意见，说贝灵汉和凯恩看起来有点疲惫，尤其是在英格兰最后一场比赛之后。我不一定不同意，但这些世界级的运动员肯定知道如何在对阵荷兰队时发挥出最佳状态。他们显然非常致力于“把足球带回家”，就像英国人在谈论赢得欧洲杯时所说的那样。我将对疲劳因素略加强调。事实上，我相信几乎所有的英格兰球员——还有荷兰球员——在经历了一个漫长而艰苦的赛季后，都有些疲劳，可能会有一些小伤。

我想强调的是，在上一场对阵瑞士的比赛中，英格兰队的表现比前四场好得多!他们

比以前更活跃，承担了更多的风险。在我看来，这是一个非常有希望的迹象!Saka在之前的游戏中大大提高了自己的水平，但仍有很大的进步空间!他在第80分钟打进一球，将比分扳平(1比1)。在那之后，英格兰队有过几次有希望得分的机会，但最终还是需要点球。英格兰所有的点球裁判都进了球——瑞士的优秀门将几乎没有机会!当然，英格兰球员在赛后看起来很放松，也很自信。看起来他们有出色的团队精神，通过进入半决赛，他们至少避免了自己被媒体嘲笑。输给荷兰队绝不是一件尴尬的事。是的，荷兰球迷很吵，但英格兰和土耳其的球迷在本届比赛中最吵、最忠诚。我希望在这里的球场上会有比荷兰球迷更多的英国人——或者其他国家为英格兰加油的球迷。我想强调的是，对阵瑞士队，英格兰队确实应该险胜。事实上，他们有更多的进球尝试、角球、总传球、完成传球和进攻，看起来他们可以做得更多——如果索斯盖特允许他们这样做的话。然而，强大的瑞士队也可以轻松晋级。他们在这场比赛中比我预期的打得好一点。让我们记住瑞士队在上一场比赛中轻松击败了欧洲卫冕冠军意大利队，尽管在博彩市场上瑞士队处于劣势。在2020年欧洲杯上，瑞士队在季后赛中击败了当时的世界冠军法国队，成为博彩市场上的大输家。英格兰队在这场比赛后受到了广泛的批评，但在我看来，我们应该把功劳归于组织良好的瑞士队，他们也有一些技术娴熟的球员。 英格兰的主要问题是英格兰踢得太慢，太容易预测和防守。因此，英格兰队无法从这些超级球星的个人技术中获益!是的，贝灵汉确实在伤停补时阶段打进了1比1的进球。不可否认，这是个很好的个人努力!然而，英格兰队只差两分钟就被淘汰了!赌球的人可能还记得(太)清楚了——至少这在英国足球媒体上讨论得没完没了。我们应该记住，毕竟，拥有高技术球员的强队在伤停补时阶段进球的情况并不罕见。例如，上赛季和前几个赛季，德国冠军皇马和勒沃库森就多次这样做了!斯洛伐克在上半场取得领先，而英格兰尽管控球率相对较高，但在下半场，尤其是在最后10-15分钟的时间里，看起来却莫名其妙地毫无头绪!他们无法创造出很多有希望的得分机会，甚至无法对斯洛伐克的防线施加巨大的压力。令人难以置信的是，在比赛的最后5-10分钟，他们拒绝了一种近乎绝望的“把球送到禁区，然后期待最好的结果”的战术。是的，这是英格兰队的一场糟糕的表现，考虑到相当高的期望——但一个专业的投注者永远不会对一场甚至两场或三场比赛/表现做出太大的反应。我们也必须赞扬斯洛伐克，他们的表现明显超出了正常水平。在加时赛中，英格兰队显然表现得更好，凯恩以2比1的比分取得了胜利。我想表扬一下切尔西的新星科尔·帕尔默，他在对阵斯洛伐克的比赛中表现不错，应该多踢几分钟。如果他在对阵荷兰的比赛中进入首发11人名单，我不会感到惊讶。英格兰队的进球次数比对手多三次。是的，斯洛伐克在90+30分钟的比赛中产生了更多的x - g，准确地说是1.93-1.36。这种情况有时会发生在足球场上，但从整体上看，英格兰队仍然是一支更好的球队。两队都有七次射偏。

进入本届杯赛的时候，英格兰看起来是一支相当不平衡的球队——我的意思是纸面上。他们的门将皮克福德在这个级别中只是一个平庸的门将。他效力于埃弗顿，这是一家低于平均水平的英超俱乐部。此外，从纸面上看，英格兰队的防守比以往任何时候都要差——尤其是与其他精英国家队相比。然而，我们必须明白，荷兰不是一支精英球队，西班牙、法国和——以及已经被淘汰的德国……所有这三支球队——以及葡萄牙和英格兰——在比赛开始前的定价都比荷兰队低得多。我想强调的是，我没有看到任何值得提出的问题

荷兰的电力评级!我仍然认为他们是本届杯赛中排名第七的球队，排在法国、西班牙、德国、英格兰、葡萄牙和比利时之后，比利时在季后赛第一轮就把法国队逼得死死的。澄清一下，这个评级反映了球队的纯粹等级，他们拥有最好的首发阵容——排除了动力因素和可能的疲劳——由高要求的赛程引起的。他们在国际足联排名中排名第七，这太高了。他们不应该进入前十，因为有很多强大的南美国家，尤其是阿根廷和巴西。另一方面，英格兰在排名中名列第五。英格兰队的防守比我预期的要好，主要是因为全队的防守非常有组织，几乎没有失误。别忘了，法国在2018年和2022年世界杯上表现得相当被动和“无聊”——本届世界杯也是如此。然而，他们也进入了半决赛，并在德国时间今晚面对西班牙。事实上，法国和英格兰并不是为了取悦球迷而比赛——他们想赢——不管有多“丑陋”!“无聊”的球队通常是值得投资的好球队，因为休闲赌徒通常更喜欢押注更有趣的球队，比如荷兰队会赢。 在谈到荷兰队之前，我想提一下，即使是曼联的哈里·马奎尔(Harry Maguire)也会成为英格兰队的重要球员，尽管他的表现不稳定——而且近年来网上流传着许多嘲笑他的表情和笑话……在英格兰队中，只有曼城的凯尔·沃克是真正的精英后卫。他在这次比赛中的表现比我想象的还要好!比如特里皮尔、盖希和斯通斯，他们离精英后卫还差得远，但英格兰的防线作为一个整体运转得非常好，而荷兰没有世界级的进攻球员，比如姆巴佩。如果英格兰进入决赛，他们的防守肯定会受到很大的考验。在我看来，索斯盖特的踢球风格太过悲观和谨慎。我必须承认，我并不完全信任他的战术技巧，但他似乎赢得了球员们的信任，这当然是至关重要的。然而，他绝对比荷兰队的主教练罗纳德·科曼要好，后者在战术上很差——至少在这个级别上是这样。几年前他在巴塞罗那是个失败者，很快就被解雇了。我也完全不相信他是一个领导者。在我看来，他是本届锦标赛最差的五名教练之一!

如今，荷兰队踢的不再是漂亮的、极具攻击性的足球，但他们仍然比英格兰队之前的5个对手更具攻击性。他们的后防线有“大牌”，比如利物浦的范迪克，但他们在这方面的表现还不能让我信服。他们在对阵奥地利的比赛中丢了三球，在对阵没有姆巴佩的法国队的比赛中很幸运地避免了失球。在对阵英格兰的重要比赛之前，对非常糟糕的罗马尼亚保持不失球并不能让我兴奋!我相信他们至少在某种程度上是积极的——“迫使”英格兰做同样的事情，正如之前提到的，英格兰的防守不是世界级的。英格兰肯定希望避免在自己的球门附近防守——让危险的荷兰人，比如德佩，拥有很高的控球率，并有机会无休止地等待英格兰防线犯错。在一场“正常”的足球比赛中，两支球队都试图创造机会，而不是主要等待对手犯错——就像法国对阵比利时和葡萄牙对阵法国——英格兰的进攻球员比荷兰的进攻球员有更多的空间。这将导致相当数量的xG。

荷兰队在上一场比赛中完全没有给我留下深刻印象，尽管他们以2比1击败了土耳其。德弗里耶在第70分钟打进了1-1的进球，2-1的进球是穆多尔的乌龙球。我在这场比赛后降低了荷兰队的能量等级——虽然不是很大。在这场比赛之前，他们并没有什么特别的，但还可以——或多或少地达到了我预期的水平——甚至可能稍微好一点。然而，在本届比赛中，他们只面对过一个足球大国——法国。在博彩市场上，土耳其显然处于劣势，但他们的进球次数(15胜11负)、射门次数和角球次数都比荷兰队多!此外，他们在本届世界杯的进球数为1.45，而荷兰队的进球数仅为令人失望的0.81!是的，土耳其在这场比赛中比预期的要好一些，但荷兰人应该能够更多地考验和伤害土耳其摇摇欲坠的防线!事实上，即使是格鲁吉亚，这样一支实力有限的球队，在对阵土耳其的比赛中创造了很多预期进球。非常重要的德容因伤不能参加这次比赛。巴塞罗那，这个星球上最大的俱乐部之一，中场球员遭受了反复的脚踝伤病。在我的专家看来，博彩公司对他在前四场比赛的缺席反应过度了，但回想起来，对阵土耳其的比赛，荷兰人肯定需要他!当然，对英格兰也是如此。我想强调的是，英格兰队明显比土耳其队强!

让我们来看看荷兰队在本届杯赛上的比赛:他们在小组赛第一场比赛中1-2击败波兰，理应获得三分——尽管他们远未达到最佳水平。波兰人，一支在纯洁度上比较低的球队，在这场比赛中表现得出乎意料的活跃——总体上比预期要好一些。事实上，如果运气好的话，波兰可能是一个难以对付的对手。尽管如此，荷兰队的控球率还是达到了65%，他们的进球次数、射偏、角球、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险传球次数都要多得多。荷兰队的预期进球数(xG)为1.83比0.87。在第二场比赛中，他们从法国队那里拿走了一分，甚至还多射了一次正射。我想再次提一下，法国队在没有姆巴佩的情况下比赛，他是世界上最好的球员之一，这对他们的进攻造成了很大的伤害。是的，荷兰队本来可以赢，但那毕竟是不应该得到的三分。上半场刚开始，荷兰队差一点就进球了，但如果他们进球的话，法国队可能会更加活跃，可能至少会进一次球。在下半场，两队似乎对平局相当满意，因为他们赢得了首场比赛。然而，法国在这场比赛中确实产生了更多的xG !

荷兰队在上一场小组赛中以2比3输给了奥地利，但我并没有对这场失利反应过度。奥地利踢得很好——而且在这场比赛中肯定比预期的要好——荷兰队的表现略低于正常水平。尤其是效力于荷兰豪门埃因霍温(PSV Eindhoven)的中场球员维尔曼(J. Veerman)，他踢得还不错，看起来几乎像个业余球员，结果被换下了场——在第35分钟就被西蒙斯换下。他的表现——令人难以置信的大量糟糕的助攻——是我很长一段时间以来在顶级国际赛事中看到的最差表现之一。正如我所预料的那样，奥地利采用了一种无情的反压战术，这对荷兰来说很难对付。尽管乔伊·维尔曼犯了很多可怕的错误，荷兰队的整体表现也很糟糕，但他们的进球次数和射门次数都有所增加。荷兰在2009年的收入也超过了奥地利。然而，奥地利以5:2的比分射正了很多球。我需要提到的是，在博彩市场上被高估的奥地利队，在一天结束的时候，并没有什么特别之处，在季后赛第一轮被土耳其2-1击败。是的，荷兰队在上一场比赛中很强大，击败了罗马尼亚队——说实话，罗马尼亚队是一支非常有限的球队，在这场比赛中甚至没有发挥出最好的状态。荷兰队完全配得上这场3-0的胜利。他们的进球次数(24胜6负)、射正次数(6胜1负)、射偏次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数都更多。此外，荷兰在世界杯上创造了2.93分的进球——他们防守得很好，只给了罗马尼亚0.22分。然而，我们不应该因为这支本届锦标赛中表现最差的球队之一而过于兴奋——他们很幸运能进入季后赛!最重要的是，我们甚至不应该认真比较罗马尼亚和英格兰!