High winning rate in the EURO!
2024-07-06
比赛分析
解读理由
NETHERLANDS - TURKEY
Netherlands have been a very impressive team, and I expect them to qualify easily here. They have been fortunate with their rivals in the ⅛ and ¼ finals, so they must take advantage of that.
I already predicted an easy win over Romania, and they delivered with a solid and convincing performance, attacking very well. Tournament top scorer Gakpo has been great so far in all games, one of the best Netherlands players but not the only one. Xavi Simons and Depay are both having a great tournament, and honestly, I expected Netherlands to struggle more without De Jong, who was their main player in the midfield, but I’m not noting his absence, also because Reijnders is playing very well.
However, you might think that Netherlands is performing well due to the poor level of their rivals. But against France as well (main favorites to win the tournament), they made a great performance (0:0) and even deserved to win, with a goal disallowed by VAR to Xavi Simons.
I think that Gakpo can hurt Turkey's defense, which has been very weak and vulnerable so far. Furthermore, although Netherlands’ weak point is in the defense, I believe that Van Dijk and De Vrij will bring the experience needed in these games to keep the fast and young Turkish players far from dangerous zones.
Upfront, Malen could have his chance as a starter as he is full of confidence after scoring two goals coming from the bench against Romania. He is now full of confidence, and in short tournaments like this, it is crucial to bring motivated and confident players continuity.
On the other hand, and as a positive note for the Netherlands, Turkey is not playing with a 9 striker as reference, which is where Van Dijk and De Vrij are struggling. Furthermore, Turkey has probably been the worst defensive team so far in the EURO. They are yet to keep a clean sheet, and this against big teams is a big concern.
They are young and offensive, and this could bring Netherlands in-form strikers a lot of opportunities and spaces to attack and generate chances. Furthermore, they’ll miss their best defender Demiral due to a suspension, as well as important midfielders Orkun Kokcu and Yuksek. However, they have back from suspension Calhanoglu, one of their best and most experienced players.
Against Austria, they surprised me (as I expected Austria to qualify). However, they were lucky, as they conceded 2.73 expected goals (and generated just 0.87) and Austria attacked a lot, but Turkey scored twice from two corners (both goals from Demiral, who is suspended) and spent the last 30 minutes defending inside their own area. Goalkeeper Gunok made an amazing save in the last minutes.
Arda Guler has been fantastic so far, and I think he will be important in this fixture.
I expect Turkey here to give ground to Netherlands, as they can’t play as offensively as they have been playing so far; otherwise, they will concede 3-4 goals easily (as Portugal did).
Although I believe that Turkey could score a goal, I see Netherlands with much more quality in all areas: defense, midfield, and attack. They are coming in good form and seeing the Turkish defense, which has been terrible so far, I expect Gakpo, Simons, and Depay to exploit their weakness and generate plenty of opportunities.
I expect Netherlands to win this and Gakpo to be again one of the most important players in the game.
ENGLAND - SWITZERLAND
I disagree with the odds here.
England is favored only because of the names, not because of their tactics, performances, or as a team playing together.
England has been terrible so far, and it’s mainly due to Gareth Southgate. Of course, he won’t change anything, and that’s not good for England. Several players are playing out of their natural positions, including some who have been fantastic this season like Phil Foden and are playing terribly in this EURO. Foden must be on the right wing, but he is playing in the midfield. Declan Rice is also alone in the midfield area, and Bellingham looks tired.
England has been a huge disappointment so far. They struggled a lot to beat Slovakia, weren’t able to beat Slovenia and Denmark, and just achieved a narrow win over Serbia in the first game. At the moment, I see them only with individual quality (which is indeed very important), but tactically and as a team, they are terrible. One of the worst teams we have in the ¼ finals, I’d say.
Against Slovakia, they weren’t able to generate any danger until Bellingham became the hero in a corner with an amazing goal at 95’. And Switzerland is far better than Slovakia.
One of their best players so far, CB Guehi, is suspended for this fixture. And that’s the only reason that could make Southgate change the system.
However, between Switzerland and England, I believe there’s a huge difference. In favor of Switzerland. As a team, tactically, the Swiss side is much better than England.
Switzerland is an extremely competitive team and difficult to beat but also has plenty of quality in their team. I think they can dominate and outplay England, as they are coming in much better form and have a better coach.
Yakin has been, for me, the best coach in the tournament, able to make changes and decisions during the games which always have a positive impact for his team and are also unpredictable for the rivals.
Key winger Widmer is back from suspension, so Ndoye, who has been a good surprise, is expected to play again as a playmaker and could hurt England’s defense. Xhaka has been great and, for me, is the best player in the tournament so far.
In the ⅛ finals, Switzerland made a great game and totally outplayed Italy. Once more, they showed how strong they are tactically: they made a great pressing and put Italy in many problems, and this is where England could struggle as they tend to make many mistakes in this zone, taking the ball from their defenders near their own area.
If both teams continue at the same level, I have no doubts that Switzerland is the favorite. Yes, England has better players and some of them have the quality to decide a game like this one (Harry Kane, Bellingham, Foden). However, as a team, Switzerland is much better than England and will dominate this game completely, I’m 100% sure.
If there’s something we have seen in this EURO, it’s that well-worked teams with alternatives and good tactics are totally able to beat the strong ones with quality and better players but poor tactics. And we have two good examples from both teams: Switzerland against Italy and Germany, England against Slovakia and Slovenia.
该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:
荷兰-土耳其
荷兰队一直是一支令人印象深刻的球队,我希望他们能轻松晋级。他们很幸运能在决赛中战胜对手,所以他们必须好好利用这一点。
我已经预测过罗马尼亚会轻松取胜,他们的表现稳定而令人信服,进攻非常出色。联赛最佳射手加普目前在所有比赛中都表现出色,他是荷兰最好的球员之一,但不是唯一的。哈维·西蒙斯和德佩都在比赛中表现出色,老实说,我预计德容的缺席会让荷兰队更加挣扎,德容是荷兰队中场的主要球员,但我并没有注意到他的缺席,也因为雷金德斯踢得很好。
然而,你可能会认为荷兰队的表现很好是因为他们的竞争对手水平不高。但在对阵法国队(夺冠热门)的比赛中,他们也表现出色(0:0),甚至配得上胜利,VAR判罚哈维·西蒙斯(Xavi Simons)的进球无效。
我认为Gakpo可以伤害土耳其的防守,到目前为止,土耳其的防守非常薄弱。此外,虽然荷兰队的弱点是防守,但我相信范迪克和德弗里吉将带来这些比赛所需的经验,让快速而年轻的土耳其球员远离危险区域。
在前场,马伦有机会成为首发球员,因为他在对阵罗马尼亚的比赛中替补进了两球,信心十足。他现在充满了信心,在像这样的短期比赛中,关键是要让有动力和自信的球员保持稳定。
另一方面,作为荷兰的一个积极的注意,土耳其没有使用9号前锋作为参考,这是范迪克和德弗里吉挣扎的地方。此外,土耳其可能是迄今为止在欧洲杯上防守最差的球队。他们还没有保持零封,面对强队这是一个大问题。
他们年轻且具有进攻性,这会给荷兰队状态良好的前锋带来很多进攻和创造机会的机会和空间。此外,由于停赛,他们将失去他们最好的后卫德米拉尔,以及重要的中场球员奥尔昆·科库和尤克塞克。然而,他们已经从停赛中恢复了卡尔汉奥卢,他是他们最好和最有经验的球员之一。
在对阵奥地利的比赛中,他们让我大吃一惊(因为我预计奥地利会出线)。然而,他们很幸运,因为他们丢了2.73个预期进球(只有0.87个进球),奥地利进攻频繁,但土耳其在两个角球中梅开二度(都是德米拉尔的进球,他被禁赛),并在最后30分钟内在自己的区域内防守。守门员Gunok在最后几分钟做出了一次惊人的扑救。
到目前为止,阿尔达-古勒的表现非常出色,我认为他在这场比赛中将发挥重要作用。
我希望土耳其队能在这里输给荷兰队,因为他们不能像目前那样打出进攻;否则,他们会轻易丢3-4个球(就像葡萄牙那样)。
虽然我相信土耳其能进一个球,但我认为荷兰队在防守、中场和进攻等各个方面都有更强的实力。他们的状态很好,看到土耳其的防守,到目前为止一直很糟糕,我希望Gakpo, Simons和Depay利用他们的弱点创造更多的机会。
我希望荷兰队能赢得这场比赛,而加普将再次成为这场比赛中最重要的球员之一。
英格兰-瑞士
我不同意这种可能性。
英格兰队之所以受到青睐,只是因为他们的名字,而不是因为他们的战术、表现或团队合作。
到目前为止,英格兰一直很糟糕,这主要是因为加雷斯·索斯盖特。当然,他不会改变任何事情,这对英格兰来说不是好事。一些球员在自己的位置上发挥失常,包括一些本赛季表现出色的球员,比如菲尔·福登,但在本届欧洲杯上却表现糟糕。福登应该在右翼,但他现在踢中场。德克兰·赖斯也独自一人在中场,贝灵汉看起来很疲惫。
到目前为止,英格兰队一直非常令人失望。为了击败斯洛伐克,他们付出了很大的努力,但没能击败斯洛文尼亚和丹麦,他们在第一场比赛中险胜塞尔维亚。目前,我只看到他们的个人能力(这确实非常重要),但从战术上和整体上看,他们都很糟糕。我得说,他们是四分之一决赛中最差的球队之一。
在对阵斯洛伐克的比赛中,他们无法制造任何危险,直到贝灵汉在95分钟的角球中打入一球,成为英雄。瑞士比斯洛伐克好得多。
到目前为止,他们最好的球员之一,CB Guehi,在这场比赛中被禁赛。这是唯一的re
这可能会让索斯盖特改变系统。然而,在瑞士和英国之间,我相信有很大的不同。赞成瑞士。作为一个球队,在战术上,瑞士队比英格兰队要好得多。
瑞士队是一支极具竞争力的球队,很难被击败,但他们的队伍也很有实力。我认为他们可以统治并击败英格兰队,因为他们的状态更好,教练也更好。
对我来说,亚金是本届杯赛中最好的教练,他能够在比赛中做出改变和决定,这对他的球队总是有积极的影响,对对手来说也是不可预测的。
关键边锋威德默已经从禁赛中恢复,所以恩多耶,这个给人惊喜的球员,有望再次作为组织者出场,这可能会伤害英格兰的防线。扎卡表现很好,对我来说,他是本届杯赛迄今为止最好的球员。
在决赛中,瑞士队踢了一场精彩的比赛,完全击败了意大利队。他们再一次展示了他们在战术上的强大:他们制造了巨大的压力,给意大利带来了很多问题,这就是英格兰可能会挣扎的地方,因为他们往往在这个区域犯了很多错误,在自己的区域附近从防守队员那里拿球。
如果两支球队保持同样的水平,我毫不怀疑瑞士队是夺冠热门。是的,英格兰有更好的球员,他们中的一些人有能力决定这样一场比赛(哈里凯恩,贝灵汉,福登)。然而,作为一支球队,瑞士队比英格兰队强得多,并且会完全统治这场比赛,我100%确定。
如果说我们在本届欧洲杯上看到了什么的话,那就是,拥有替代方案和良好战术的优秀球队完全能够击败拥有优秀球员和糟糕战术的强队。两支球队都有两个很好的例子:瑞士对阵意大利和德国,英格兰对阵斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚。
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