England VS Switzerland

England and Switzerland lock horns in this EURO 2024 quarter-finals battle at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf very early Sunday morning Beijing time. The stakes are, of course, sky-high and I expect a very defensive, cagey and nervous game. The goal expectancy here is even a little lower than the bookies estimate. Indeed, the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 70.50%. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better than average quality by this tournament's standards here. Most importantly, we have a great betting opportunity to make even more profit betting on this big tournament. Indeed, we have won nine of the last 10 picks betting on this tournament at the time of posting this analysis! I have already posted two picks on the EURO 2024 match and will post one more pick on this tournament On Thursday or Friday.

Even the biggest bookies have made surprisingly many mistakes with their odds in this tournament, definitely many more than in EURO 2020 which was played in several different locations in 2021 because of the Covid-19 crisis. England pushed all the way to the final - despite not being very convincing in many matches. They eventually lost to Italy in penalties 1-2 though. In the semifinals, against Denmark, they were very clear favourites but needed extra time to qualify.. I would also like to highlight that they had the support of their loyal and loud (home) fans behind them.. In my estimation England have declined only moderately from the EURO 2024 level. However, they have definitely been worse than in the World Cup in Qatar late in 2022.. They were beaten by France, the eventual finalists, in the Playoffs, but were only slightly the worse team on the pitch, losing 1-2 in the end. In the EURO 2024 Qualification Group C England played well, topping the group standings with 20 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was lower.. Italy finished in 2nd place and Ukraine ended up 3rd place. We just witnessed Italy were terrible against Switzerland in the first round of Playoffs, losing 0-2 after a very low number of expected goals (xG) created.. Ukraine, on the other hand, failed to qualify for the Playoffs. The reason I am mentioning this is that, in fact, England did not face very difficult opponents in the group. I believe the strong results in the qualification affect their odds in this tournament.. Moreover, the English Premier League is unarguably the best league in the world and is also the most popular one in terms of media coverage and the number of people watching it on television. The betting volumes are also high.. I believe these factors are among the reasons behind England very often being overvalued on the betting market as football enthusiasts and recreational bettors are familiar with the best English players and, as a result, overvalue them - and the English national team. Furthermore, betting is a very popular hobby in England and as this country has a pretty large population - and England have a lot of fans abroad as well - bookmakers are "forced" to offer England winning lower odds than they would based on their probability estimation.. Indeed, the bookies, just like any business, simply have to manage risk! On paper England are, of course, the stronger team here. They have players like Jude Bellingham, who was excellent with Real Madrid, the UEFA Champions League winners in the 2023- 2024 season. England also have Manchester City's very-talented Phil Foden, the player of the season 2023-2024 in the Premier League. Arsenal's star Saka - who has been disappointing in this tournament though - and one of the best strikers in the world, Harry Kane. He scored a lot of goals for the German giants, Bayern Munich, last season. Unfortunately for England, so far in this tournament Kane has been only a shadow of the player he has been with Bayern – and Tottenham in the past. All four players have looked more or less frustrated in all England's four games so far, especially against Slovenia - and Slovakia, in their previous game. Especially Jude Bellingham has been extremely disappointing as a whole but the main problem has been England playing way too slow and defensive football. As a result, England cannot benefit from their super stars' individual skill!

Yes, Bellingham did score the 1-1 goal against Slovakia in the injury time. It was a fine individual effort, no denying that. England were, however, only about two minutes away from being eliminated! Indeed, Slovakia took the lead in the 1st half and England, despite having a relatively high ball possession, looked amazingly helpless in the 2nd half, especially in the last 10-15 minutes! They were unable to create many scoring chances – or even that intense pressure on Slovakia's defence. In the last 5-10 minutes game they, quite incredibly, declined to a desperate-looking "just kick the ball into the penalty area and hope for the best". Their final push looked more like a limited lower league team chasing a late goal - not a team with so many talented players.. In my expert opinion Bellingham should play in a slightly more defensive role if England want to get more out of his skills.. Furthermore, Southgate should think about benching Saka.. Chelsea's Cole Palmer was pretty good against Slovakia and should play more minutes.. Let's not forget that against Slovakia England recorded only three more goal attempts than the opponent. Slovakia even had more shots on goal and generated more in xG in the 90+30 minutes of play – 1.93-1.36 to be precise. Kane scored the winning 2-1 goal early in the extra time. Both teams had seven shots off target. England were hugely overrated in this match, priced around 1.45 to eliminate the Slovaks in 90 minutes of play. Switzerland are a much better – and once again underrated -  team. Even so, the main rationale behind is to oppose the overrated England! Yes, taking their potential into account – they deserve to be the favourites here – but much more narrow than the odds suggest. Indeed, the biggest bookies with the largest stake limits offer odds of around 2.20 on England getting the job done in the 90 minutes of play. The obvious professional bettor's choice is the Switzerland +0.5 goals handicap! I want to highlight that in this tournament Switzerland have been much better than England.

England have been an imbalanced team in this tournament which is, of course, never a good thing.. Their goalkeeper, Pickford, is only a mediocre goalkeeper for this level.. He plays for Everton, a worse-than-average Premier League team. Furthermore, England's defence is worse than it has been for decades – especially compared to the other top national teams – or even the good teams, like Switzerland. Even Manchester United's Harry Maguire would have been a big player for England, despite being erratic - and many online memes and jokes that mock him circulating in the past 2-3 years.. In the England team,  Manchester City's Kyle Walker is a true top- level defender.. For example Trippier, Guehi and Stones are far from this! Guehi is suspended due to too many yellow cards in this game though. England's head coach, Gareth Southgate, has been mercilessly criticized in the football media all over the world even before the tournament started and the criticism has become even stronger as a result of England's very disappointing performances. There have also been rumours of a tense atmosphere within the England team.. The pressure on them must be gigantic at the moment.. Indeed, almost all bookmakers saw them as the biggest favourites before the tournament kicked off.. 

Southgate's style of play is simply too "pessimistic" and cautious. I do not trust him in terms of tactical skills – and particularly not as a leader – at all! Most football enthusiasts and bettors probably agree with me on this one.. No one seems to really understand his tactics – or starting eleven – at least so far in the EURO 2024.. Yes, it is of course possible that he will instruct his players to play more active football against Switzerland – taking more risks in order to create even a decent number of promising scoring chances. Despite all the negative things mentioned before, England have big potential for improvement and I want to clarify once again that I have, of course, taken this into account in my probability estimation. It would not be a massive shock if England were to win this say 2-0. A quick goal could relax them.. However, changing style of play significantly in the middle of the tournament is very difficult and there is nothing actually suggesting that Southgate would be willing to make considerable changes ahead of this very challenging game against the well-organized Switzerland who also have much more individual skill than Slovakia..

England are in the 5th place in the FIFA Ranking but even at their best they are not among the best five countries in the world – taking into account not only the best possible starting eleven but also the optimal list of substitutes. Based on their performances in this tournament – and the friendly matches played prior to the tournament – they are not even top-12! They even lost Iceland at home right before the tournament started - as massive favourites on the betting market,

Switzerland have not lost any of their last eight games and have experience of taking wins over bigger football countries as underdogs! They, for example, beat France, the reigning World Champions at the time, in the EURO 2020. In the last World Cup they qualified for the Playoffs but lost to a strong team, Portugal, as pretty clear underdogs on the betting market. I want to highlight that the Swiss very often play better than the list of players would suggest. This has been the case in the EURO 2024 as well. I have raised their power rating from the in-depth pre-tournament analysis. This rating reflects the teams' pure class not only with the best possible starting eleven but also taking account the substitutes and (match) schedule. Switzerland have had one more day than England to rest and prepare for this match and whilst this is not among the most important factors, of course, it is still something we must give enough emphasis – the bookies often fail to do so..

Rather amazingly, the Swiss have lost just one of their most recent 18 games! This loss came last year against Romania on the road. The Swiss recorded more shots off target, goal attempts and xG - 1.03-0.69 - in this match. In their last game they beat Italy, a country who are much higher up in the FIFA Ranking and were also solid favourites on the betting market. Italy were disappointing but the Swiss were even better than I would have expected! Switzerland recorded many more goal attempts (16-10), shots on goal (4-1), shots on goal (4-1) as well as attacks. They also generated more in xG and were in almost full control of the events on the pitch – especially in the 1st half. The final score was 2-0. I loved the way the Swiss defended and want to mention that England's offense has not been at all better than Italy's so far in this tournament..

Before the game against Italy the Swiss faced Germany as huge underdogs – priced around 7.00 to win by the bookies. They performed well and were active on the pitch - even at times pressing the German defence in a very well-structured way. The Swiss were very close to winning the game! Indeed, N. Fullkrug scored the 1-1 goal only in the 90th+2 minute. Both teams had three shots on target but the German did generate more in xG though. In round 2 Switzerland were not at their best and it was a 1-1 draw against Scotland. The Swiss did, however, generate more in xG – 1.13-0.81 to be precise. In the opening round Switzerland, against Hungary, were great, especially offensively. They had many more attacks, shots on goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 2.67-1.16 in the Swiss' favour! I want to mention especially two Swiss players, Aebischer and Freuler, who were terrific with Bologna in the Serie A last season. The team finished in the top-4 – consequently earning a place in the UEFA Champions League for next season!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

英格兰VS瑞士

北京时间周日凌晨，英格兰队和瑞士队将在<s:1>塞尔多夫的Merkur Spiel-Arena球场展开2024年欧洲杯四分之一决赛的较量。当然，赌注是巨大的，我期待着一场非常防守、谨慎和紧张的比赛。这里的进球预期甚至比博彩公司的估计还要低一点。事实上，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是70.50%。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以本届锦标赛的标准来看比平均水平更好的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个很好的投注机会，可以在这个大型锦标赛上获得更多的利润。事实上，在发表这篇分析时，我们已经赢得了最近10次比赛中的9次!我已经发表了两篇关于2024年欧洲杯的文章，并将在周四或周五再发表一篇关于本届欧洲杯的文章。

即使是最大的博彩公司在本届世界杯上的赔率也出人意料地犯了很多错误，肯定比2020年欧洲杯的赔率要高得多。由于新冠肺炎危机，2020年欧洲杯在2021年的几个不同地点举行。英格兰一路挺进决赛——尽管在许多比赛中表现不太令人信服。他们最终在点球大战中以1比2不敌意大利。在半决赛对阵丹麦的比赛中，他们显然是夺冠热门，但需要加时赛才能出线。我还想强调的是，他们有他们的忠实和响亮的(国内)球迷的支持。据我估计，与2024年欧洲杯的水平相比，英格兰只略有下降。然而，他们肯定比2022年底的卡塔尔世界杯更糟糕。他们在季后赛中被最终入围决赛的法国队击败，但在球场上只是略逊一筹，最终以1比2输掉了比赛。在2024年欧洲杯预选赛C组中，英格兰队表现出色，以20分排名小组第一。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)较低。意大利排名第二，乌克兰排名第三。我们刚刚目睹了意大利在季后赛第一轮对阵瑞士的糟糕表现，在创造了非常少的预期进球(xG)后，他们以0比2输掉了比赛。另一方面，乌克兰未能晋级季后赛。我提到这一点的原因是，事实上，英格兰在小组中并没有遇到非常困难的对手。我相信预选赛的强劲成绩会影响他们在本届锦标赛中的胜算。此外，英超联赛无疑是世界上最好的联赛，在媒体报道和电视观看人数方面也是最受欢迎的联赛。投注量也很高……我相信这些因素是英格兰在博彩市场上经常被高估的原因之一，因为足球爱好者和娱乐投注者熟悉最好的英格兰球员，因此高估了他们——以及英格兰国家队。此外，赌博在英国是一个非常受欢迎的爱好，因为这个国家有相当多的人口——英格兰在国外也有很多球迷——博彩公司“被迫”提供英格兰获胜的赔率低于他们基于概率估计的赔率。事实上，博彩公司就像任何企业一样，必须管理风险!从纸面上看，英格兰当然是更强的球队。他们有像裘德·贝灵汉这样的球员，他在2023- 2024赛季的欧洲冠军联赛冠军皇家马德里表现出色。英格兰队还有曼城队非常有天赋的菲尔·福登，他是2023-2024赛季英超最佳球员。阿森纳球星萨卡——他在本届杯赛中表现令人失望——和世界上最好的前锋之一哈里·凯恩。上个赛季，他为德国豪门拜仁慕尼黑打进了很多球。不幸的是，对于英格兰队来说，到目前为止，凯恩在本届杯赛中只是他在拜仁和热刺时的影子。到目前为止，这四名球员在英格兰的四场比赛中都或多或少显得有些沮丧，尤其是对阵斯洛文尼亚和斯洛伐克的比赛。尤其是贝灵汉，他的表现让人非常失望，但主要的问题是英格兰踢得太慢了，而且是防守足球。因此，英格兰队无法从这些超级球星的个人技术中获益!

是的，贝灵汉确实在伤停补时阶段打进了1比1的进球。不可否认，这是个很好的个人努力。然而，英格兰队只差两分钟就被淘汰了!的确，斯洛伐克在上半场取得领先，而英格兰尽管控球率相对较高，但在下半场，尤其是在最后10-15分钟里，看起来非常无助!他们无法创造很多

得分的机会，甚至是对斯洛伐克防线的巨大压力。令人难以置信的是，在比赛的最后5-10分钟，他们拒绝了一种绝望的表情，“只要把球踢进禁区，然后期待最好的结果”。他们最后的冲刺看起来更像是一支实力有限的低级别联赛球队，而不是一支拥有如此多天才球员的球队。在我看来，如果英格兰想要更多地发挥贝灵汉的技术，他应该扮演防守角色。此外，索斯盖特应该考虑换下萨卡。切尔西的科尔·帕尔默在对阵斯洛伐克的比赛中表现不错，他应该多踢几分钟。别忘了，在对阵斯洛伐克的比赛中，英格兰队的进球次数只比对手多3次。在90+30分钟的比赛中，斯洛伐克甚至有更多的射门机会，在xG上创造了更多的机会——准确地说，是1.93比1.36。凯恩在加时赛一开始就以2比1的比分赢得了比赛。两队都有七次射偏。英格兰队在这场比赛中被高估了，在90分钟内淘汰斯洛伐克队的价格约为1.45。瑞士队要好得多，但又一次被低估了。即便如此，背后的主要理由还是反对被高估的英格兰!是的，考虑到他们的潜力——他们理应成为最受欢迎的球队——但几率比想象的要小得多。事实上，拥有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司对英格兰队在90分钟内完成比赛的赔率约为2.20。明显的职业赌徒的选择是瑞士+0.5进球障碍!我想强调的是，在这次比赛中，瑞士比英格兰强得多。

英格兰队在这次比赛中一直是一支不平衡的球队，这当然不是一件好事。他们的门将皮克福德在这个级别中只是一个平庸的门将。他效力于埃弗顿，一支低于平均水平的英超球队。此外，英格兰队的防守比过去几十年都要糟糕，尤其是与其他顶级国家队相比，甚至与瑞士这样的强队相比。即使是曼联的哈里·马奎尔也会成为英格兰队的一名重要球员，尽管在过去的2-3年里，他的行为不稳定，网上流传着许多嘲笑他的表情和笑话。在英格兰队中，曼城的凯尔·沃克是一名真正的顶级后卫。例如Trippier, Guehi和Stones就远非如此!由于本场比赛中黄牌过多，Guehi被禁赛。英格兰队主教练加雷斯·索斯盖特在比赛开始前就受到了世界各地足球媒体的无情批评，而且由于英格兰队令人失望的表现，批评变得更加强烈。还有传言说英格兰队内气氛紧张。现在他们的压力一定很大。事实上，在比赛开始之前，几乎所有的博彩公司都认为他们是最大的热门。

索斯盖特的踢球风格太过“悲观”和谨慎。我完全不相信他的战术技巧，尤其是他的领导能力!大多数足球爱好者和投注者可能同意我的观点。似乎没有人真正理解他的战术——或者首发11人——至少到目前为止在2024年欧洲杯。是的，他当然有可能会指示他的球员在对阵瑞士的比赛中踢得更积极——冒更多的风险来创造更多有希望的得分机会。尽管之前提到了所有的负面因素，英格兰队仍有很大的提升潜力，我想再次澄清，当然，我已经在我的概率估计中考虑到了这一点。如果英格兰队以2比0取胜，也不会有太大的冲击。一个快速进球可以让他们放松。

英格兰队在国际足联的排名中排名第五，但即使在他们最好的情况下，他们也不是世界上最好的五支球队之一——不仅考虑到最好的首发11人，而且考虑到最佳的替补名单。根据他们在本届锦标赛中的表现——以及赛前的友谊赛——他们甚至进不了12强!他们甚至在比赛开始前在主场输给了冰岛队——作为博彩市场上的大热门，

瑞士队在过去的八场比赛中没有输过一场，并且有以劣势战胜足球强国的经验!例如，他们打败了当时的统治者法国

当时是2020年欧洲杯的世界冠军。在上一届世界杯上，他们获得了进入季后赛的资格，但输给了强队葡萄牙队，在博彩市场上，葡萄牙队显然处于劣势。我想强调的是，瑞士人经常比名单上的球员表现得更好。2024年欧洲杯也是如此。根据赛前的深入分析，我提高了他们的能量等级。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，不仅有最好的首发11人，还考虑了替补和(比赛)时间表。瑞士队比英格兰队多了一天的休息时间来准备这场比赛，虽然这不是最重要的因素之一，但这仍然是我们必须给予足够重视的事情——博彩公司经常不这样做。

令人惊讶的是，瑞士队在最近的18场比赛中只输了一场!这种失利发生在去年客场对阵罗马尼亚时。在本场比赛中，瑞士队的射偏、射门次数和xG(1.03-0.69)都有所增加。在上一场比赛中，他们击败了意大利，意大利在国际足联的排名要高得多，也是博彩市场上的热门球队。意大利队的表现令人失望，但瑞士队的表现甚至比我预期的还要好!瑞士队的进球次数(16-10次)、射正次数(4-1)、射正次数(4-1)以及进攻次数都更多。他们在比赛中也创造了更多的机会，并且几乎完全控制了场上的局势——尤其是在上半场。最后的比分是2比0。我喜欢瑞士队的防守方式，我想说的是，到目前为止，英格兰队的进攻并不比意大利队好。

在与意大利的比赛之前，瑞士队面对的是德国队，他们被认为是不被看好的球队——博彩公司开出的胜率约为7.00英镑。他们表现得很好，在球场上很活跃，甚至有时会以一种结构非常好的方式压迫德国的防线。瑞士队差一点就赢得比赛了!事实上，富勒克鲁格在第90 +2分钟才打入1-1的进球。两支球队都有三次射正，但德国人在xG创造了更多的机会。在第二轮比赛中，瑞士队表现不佳，1-1战平苏格兰队。然而，瑞士人在xG(1.13-0.81)中确实产生了更多。在首轮对阵匈牙利的比赛中，瑞士队表现出色，尤其是在进攻端。他们有更多的进攻，射门，角球，总传球，完成传球，进攻和危险的进攻。xG的数字是2.67-1.16，瑞士人占上风!我想特别提到两名瑞士球员，艾比舍尔和弗罗伊勒，他们上赛季在意甲的表现非常出色。球队最终以前四的成绩结束了比赛，从而赢得了下赛季欧洲冠军联赛的席位!