Jubilo Iwata VS Tokyo Verdy

Iwata welcome Verdy for this J1 League round 20 battle at Yamaha Stadium Wednesday evening Beijing time. This is the highest tier of Japanese football. The level of this league is not of very high by global standards but by Asian standards is of very good quality. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of slightly lower than mediocre level by this league's standards here. However, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here. Both teams were promoted from the J2 League to this level for this season. However, Verdy have been much better than Iwata so far this season. Indeed, Verdy currently occupy the 10th place in the standings. They have grabbed a pretty good 27 points. Their offense has surprised me positively this season – especially in terms of offensive structure. They have various offensive strategies/formations. They have netted the ball 28 times. This is just three goals less than Machida, the current leaders have scored. Their defence, on the other hand, is very solid. They have been quite vulnerable to intense, well-structured pressing but Iwata are not expected to be capable of doing this here.. Verdy have allowed 30 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is "only" 25.35. Verdy can improve in this area of the game. They are slightly the bigger team in terms of players' estimated total market value, according to Transfermarkt.com, a German website. The hosts' squad is valued at around 12 million euros which is too high. The Verdy squad is valued at around 13 million which is too low. Some 16-17 million would be a more realistic number! With the expected lineups Verdy deserve to be solid favourites here. We will take the Verdy +0.5 goals handicap option. Most of the biggest bookies have made yet another mistake here and disagree with my expert probability estimation – seeing the hosts as narrow favourites..

Iwata currently occupy the 16th place in this league where a total of 20 clubs play. The worst three teams will be relegated to the J2 League for next season. I would not be at all surprised if they were to suffer this terrible fate. They lack quality in all areas of the game to do well at this level. They have scored 24 goals and have conceded 26 goals. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is only 22.32. Moreover, their number of xGA is 32.11. Iwata have not been able to beat Verdy in any of the last four games between the two teams. Indeed, Verdy have won two times and two of these four games have been draws. The two teams last locked horns on the 6th of May and Verdy won 3-2 at home. They deserved the three points as they had many more goal attempts (16-11), shots on goal (8-3), corner kicks (8-1), attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 3.32-1.37. Iwata have been in poor form recently. Indeed, they have failed to win any of their last four games and have taken just one win in their last 10 matches. Their fans have been pretty frustrated recently and I do not expect the atmosphere to be that great at Yamaha Stadium here.. In their last game they took a point from Cerezo Osaka at this same stadium. However, the visitors had 63.20% ball possession and would have deserved all three points as they had many more goal attempts (22-16), shots off goal (8-3), total passes and completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 82-48. On the 16th of this month Iwata took yet another undeserved draw against FC Tokyo on the road. The hosts had 61% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (18-9), shots off goal (16-5), corner kicks (8-3), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated much more in xG than Iwata. Before this Iwata were very disappointing, losing to Tegevajero Miyazaki, a team that play in the J3 League, 1-2 at home. Iwata were priced below 1.30 to win by the bookies in the 90 minutes of play in this Emperor's Cup clash. 

Verdy, on the other hand, have won four of their last six games and have seemed confident on the pitch recently. In their last match they beat Nagoya Grampus 1-0 at home as underdogs on the betting market. However, the match could easily have gone either way. Before this Verdy lost to Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-4 away from home. However, the final score is very misleading. Verdy, priced around 7.50 to win at the time of kickoff, even recorded more attacks – 112-105 to be precise. They also had a decent 14 goal attempts. The hosts deserved the three points though. On the 12th of June Verdy crushed Nagano 5-0 at home in an Emperor's Cup game. In round 17 Verdy deservedly beat Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 5-3 at home in an entertaining game. The xG numbers were 2.45-0.77.

岩田裕雄VS东京Verdy

岩田聪欢迎Verdy参加北京时间周三晚上在雅马哈体育场举行的J1联赛第20轮比赛。这是日本足球的最高级别。以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平不是很高，但以亚洲标准来看，这个联赛的质量非常好。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比这个联赛的标准略低的比赛。然而，我们还有另一个有利可图的赌博机会。这两支球队本赛季都是从J2联赛升级到这个级别。然而，本赛季到目前为止，Verdy的表现比岩田聪要好得多。事实上，Verdy目前在排行榜上排名第十。他们拿到了相当不错的27分。他们的进攻本赛季给了我惊喜，尤其是在进攻结构方面。他们有各种进攻策略/阵型。他们已经把球打进28次了。这只比目前领先的町田少进3球。另一方面，他们的防守非常稳固。他们很容易受到强烈的，有组织的压迫，但岩田聪不希望在这里做到这一点。威尔迪队丢了30个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)“只有”25.35个。Verdy在这方面还可以提高。根据德国网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，就球员的估计总市值而言，他们略高于曼联。东道主球队的身价约为1200万欧元，这太高了。Verdy队的价值约为1300万，这太低了。大约1600万到1700万是更现实的数字!在预期的阵容下，Verdy应该是最受欢迎的。我们将采用Verdy +0.5进球障碍选项。大多数最大的博彩公司在这里又犯了一个错误，他们不同意我的专家概率估计——把东道主视为小热门……

目前，岩田在共有20家俱乐部参加的联赛中排名第16位。表现最差的三支球队下赛季将被降级到J2联赛。如果他们遭受这种可怕的命运，我一点也不惊讶。他们在比赛的各个方面都缺乏实力，无法在这个水平上表现出色。他们进了24球丢了26球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)只有22.32。它们的xGA数为32.11。岩田在两队最近的四场比赛中都没能击败Verdy。事实上，威尔迪已经赢了两场，这四场比赛中有两场平局。两队上一次交锋是在5月6日，Verdy主场3-2获胜。他们理应得到三分，因为他们有更多的进球尝试(16胜11负)、射门(8胜3负)、角球(8胜1负)、进攻和危险进攻。xG值为3.32 ~ 1.37。岩田聪最近状态不佳。事实上，他们在最近的四场比赛中一场都没赢，在最近的10场比赛中只取得了一场胜利。他们的球迷最近很沮丧，我不认为雅马哈球场的气氛会那么好。在上一场比赛中，他们在同一座球场从大阪Cerezo那里拿走了一分。然而，客队的控球率为63.20%，理应得到全部三分，因为他们有更多的进球尝试(22-16)、射偏(8-3)、总传球和完成传球、进攻和危险进攻(82-48)。本月16日，岩田又在客场与东京FC打了一场不应得的平局。主队有61%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(18-9次)、射偏(16-5次)、角球次数(8-3次)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。他们在xG的收益也比岩田聪高得多。在此之前，岩田非常令人失望，在主场以1-2输给了J3联赛的Tegevajero Miyazaki。在这场天皇杯的比赛中，在90分钟的比赛中，博彩公司对岩田的定价低于1.30美元。

另一方面，Verdy在最近的六场比赛中赢了四场，最近在球场上看起来很有信心。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以1比0击败名古屋格兰普斯队，在博彩市场上处于劣势。然而，这场比赛本来可以很容易地走向任何一方。在此之前，Verdy客场1-4输给了广岛圣弗雷斯。然而，最终的分数很容易误导人。在开球时，Verdy的胜率约为7.50，甚至记录了更多的攻击——准确地说是112-105。他们也有不错的14次射门。主队理应得到三分。在6月12日的天皇杯比赛中，Verdy在主场5-0击败了长野。在第17轮比赛中，Verdy在主场以5-3击败了北海道俱乐部札幌队，这是一场有趣的比赛。xG值为2.45 ~ 0.77。