Waterford United VS Shelbourne

Waterford and Shelbourne lock horns in this Irish Premier Division round 21 clash at Regional Sports Centre early Friday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is low by European standards, even worse than that of the Finnish Veikkausliiga for example! The most talented and ambitious young Irish players usually move abroad – particularly to the UK to build a professional career. However, football enthusiasts and us serious bettors with a long-term profit in mind have a very lucrative betting opportunity here! We can expect a match of clearly better than average level here. Waterford currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with a fine 31 points in their pocket. This is the same number as Shamrock Rovers, the reigning champions of Ireland, have grabbed. The hosts were promoted from Division 1 to this level for this season. There is no denying the fact that some of their players have played above their normal level so far this season. This should change – at least to some extent - as the season progresses. They have scored many more goals than Shelbourne – 30 to be precise. This is the 2nd-biggest number in this league. Shelbourne have netted the ball only 24 times. The Shelbourne defence is unarguably more solid than the of Waterford – mainly thanks to a better defensive structure. They have conceded 14 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is higher. Waterford have allowed 24 goals but their number of xGA is 22.24.

Shelbourne top the standings with 40 points to their account and have been better than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. However, they have, as a result of fine results, become too hot on the betting market and must be opposed here. Last season they finished in 4th place, 12 points behind Shamrock. By pure class Shelborne are not among the top-2 in this league. Taking the substantial home advantage into account – with the expected lineups – Shelbourne are only narrow favourites here. The bookies disagree and offer the visitors odds of only around 2.25-2.35 to take all three points. We will take the hosts +0.5 goals handicap. In terms of players estimated total market value Shelbourne are only a little bigger team here. Indeed, their squad is valued at around 1.8 million euros, which is a little too low though. Waterford's players are valued at an estimated 1.5 million which is also a bit too low. Both teams have won three of their last four games. In their last match Waterford crushed Sligo Rovers 4-1 at home, recording a whopping 25 goal attempts. They also had much more shots on goal (11-4) than the visitors and fully deserved the win. Before this they lost to a big team Derry City 0-3 on the road as big underdogs – priced close to 7.00 to win by the bookies. However, they recorded more goal attempts (15-10), shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Both teams had five shots on goal so the final score is very misleading! Shelbourne beat Dundalk, the rock-bottom team, 1-0 at home in their last game as very clear favourites. They deserved the narrow win but their offense did not impress me. They had only two shots on goal. Before this Shelbourne were big favourites at home against Sligo Rovers 1-2 but had more scoring chances than the visitors though.

沃特福德联队VS谢尔本

北京时间周五凌晨，沃特福德和谢尔本将在爱尔兰超级联赛第21轮在地区体育中心进行对决。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是很低的，甚至比芬兰的联赛还差!最有才华、最有抱负的年轻爱尔兰球员通常会移居国外——尤其是去英国建立自己的职业生涯。然而，足球爱好者和我们这些着眼长远利益的严肃投注者在这里有一个非常有利可图的投注机会!我们可以期待一场明显高于平均水平的比赛。沃特福德目前在积分榜上排名第四，积了31分。这个数字与爱尔兰卫冕冠军三叶草流浪者队(Shamrock Rovers)获得的数字相同。主队本赛季从甲级升入甲级。不可否认的事实是，到目前为止，他们的一些球员已经超出了他们的正常水平。随着赛季的进展，这种情况应该会有所改变——至少在某种程度上是这样。他们比谢尔本进了更多的球——准确地说是30个。这是联盟第二多的数字。谢尔本仅有24次进球。谢尔本的防守毫无疑问比沃特福德更加稳固，这主要得益于他们更好的防守结构。他们丢了14个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)更高。沃特福德丢了24个球，但是他们的平均进球数是22.24个。

谢尔本以40分排名第一，比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。然而，由于良好的结果，他们在博彩市场上变得过于热门，必须在这里反对。上赛季他们排名第四，落后三叶草12分。按纯粹的等级计算，谢尔本在这个联赛中并不是前两名。考虑到巨大的主场优势——加上预期的阵容——谢尔本在这里只是一个微弱的热门。博彩公司不同意这一说法，他们只给访客2.25-2.35的赔率来获得全部三分。我们将以东道主+0.5个进球的劣势取胜。就球员估计的总市场价值而言，谢尔本只是一支稍微大一点的球队。事实上，他们的阵容价值约为180万欧元，这有点太低了。沃特福德球员的身价估计为150万英镑，这也有点太低了。两队在最近四场比赛中都赢了三场。在上一场比赛中，沃特福德在主场4-1大胜斯莱戈流浪者队，他们的进球次数高达25次。他们的射门次数也比客队多(11-4)，完全配得上这场胜利。在此之前，他们在客场0-3输给了大球队德里城，被认为是大冷门——博彩公司开出的赔率接近7.00。然而，他们的进球次数(15-10次)、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。两队都有5次射门，所以最后的比分很容易误导人!谢尔本在上一场比赛中主场1-0击败了排名垫底的邓多克队，成为夺冠热门。他们应该以微弱优势取胜，但他们的进攻并没有给我留下深刻印象。他们只有两次射门击中球门。在此之前，谢尔本在主场1-2击败斯莱戈流浪者是大热门，但他们比客队有更多的进球机会。