Cremonese VS Venezia

Cremonese and Venezia lock horns in this Italian Serie B Playoffs finals 1st leg at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Cremona early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the third-best second tier in Europe. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of very high quality by this league's standards here! The final of this match up will play in the Serie A next season! Indeed, the stakes are sky-high here. As a result I expect a pretty defensive, even cautious game here. Neither team would like to be trailing by a margin of more than two goals after the first leg as in this situation the chances of being promoted would get very slim. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies estimate. Indeed, the probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is 60.50%. The teams last locked horns in Venezia in April and the hosts took a 2-1 win. It was a pretty tough battle but Venezia did generate a little more than the visitors in expected goals (xG) – 1.21-0.79 to be precise. Venezia ended up in 3rd place after the regular season with a fine 70 points to their account. It was just three points less than Como who were promoted directly. However, Venezia number of expected points (xPTS) was slightly higher than 70. They netted the ball an impressive 69 times which was clearly the biggest number in this league. In this area of the the game Venezia have huge edge over the hosts. The visitors' most dangerous player is Joel Pohjanpalo. The Finn scored the biggest number in this league in the regular season! He is at his best near the opponent's goal. Bigger teams have shown some interest in him recently.

Cremonese finished in 4th place with 67 points but netted the ball only 50 times. Their defence was surprisingly solid though as they conceded only 32 goals. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was much bigger. I believe Venezia's skilled and fast offensive players will find a way to break the hosts' defence.. The Venezia defence has not been very solid but they can improve in this area of the game. Both teams have been in good form recently. Cremonese beat Catanzaro 4-1 in their last game, advancing 6-3 on aggregate. The 4-1 final score is misleading though as the expected goals (xG) numbers were 1.65-0.75. Venezia have taken two fine wins in a row!

克雷莫纳VS威尼斯

北京时间周五凌晨，克雷莫纳和威尼斯在克雷莫纳乔瓦尼齐尼球场进行了意大利乙级季后赛首回合的比赛。这是欧洲第三好的第二梯队。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场按照联赛标准非常高质量的比赛!这场比赛的决赛将在下赛季的意甲进行!事实上，这里的风险极高。因此，我认为这是一场非常防守，甚至是谨慎的比赛。两支球队都不希望在首回合落后超过两球，因为在这种情况下，晋级的机会将变得非常渺茫。这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要低。事实上，进球少于2.5个的概率是60.50%。两队上一次交锋是在4月份的威尼斯，东道主以2-1取胜。这是一场相当艰苦的战斗，但在预期进球(xG)上，威尼斯确实比客队多了一点——准确地说是1.21-0.79。常规赛结束后，威尼斯以70分的罚分排名第三。只比直接晋升的科莫少3分。然而，Venezia预期点数(xPTS)略高于70。他们有令人印象深刻的69次进球，这显然是联盟中最多的数字。在比赛的这个方面，威尼斯队比东道主队有很大的优势。客队最危险的球员是乔尔·波扬帕洛。芬兰人在常规赛中得分最高!他在对方球门附近状态最佳。大球队最近对他表现出了一些兴趣。

克雷莫纳斯队以67分排名第四，但只有50次进球。他们的防守出奇的稳固，只丢了32个球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xGA)要大得多。我相信威尼斯技术娴熟、进攻速度快的球员会找到办法突破东道主的防线。威尼斯的防守不是很稳固，但他们可以在这方面有所提高。两个队最近状态都很好。克雷莫纳斯在上一场比赛中以4比1击败卡坦扎罗，总比分为6比3。4-1的最终比分具有误导性，因为预期进球(xG)数字是1.65-0.75。威尼斯队已经取得了两连胜!