NAC Breda VS Excelsior SBV

NAC Breda welcome Excelsior for this Eredivisie Relegation Playoffs Semifinals 1st leg clash at Rat Verlegh Stadion early Wednesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality Breda played in the Eerste Divisie this season but are hoping to be promoted to the first tier for next season. The stakes are, of course, sky-high and I expect a relatively defensive, possibly even cautious match here. An early goal could, however, change this "script".. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored here is 47.50%.The level of both Eredivisie and Eerste Divisie is better than average by European standards. I want to highlight that the difference in class between the Eredivisie and Eerste Divisie is substantial! Excelsior finished in 16th place in the standings after the regular season with 29 points to their account. However, they were unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They would have deserved 34 or 35 points. They netted the ball a pretty good 50 times. This is more than Utrecht who ended up in 7th place after the regular season! Against an Eerste Divisie team their skilled and pretty fast strikers and midfielders should be able to create a good number of scoring chances – especially in the 2nd leg at home! Their defence, however, was simply too shaky for the highest tier – despite the decent structure. Their defenders made too many silly mistakes during the regular season and also often tried to to play above their true skill level – for example giving too risky passes near their own goal.. However, I do not believe the Excelsior players are that afraid of the second-tier offense that they are facing here. Excelsior allowed a total of 73 goals – but for example Heracles (14th) place – conceded more goals.

With the expected lineups it is very clear that Excelsior are the better team – but only by a substantial margin. However, the home advantage needs to be given enough emphasis. The biggest bookies - who accept the biggest bets from customers – have made yet another mistake – as they see the hosts as slim favourites. The visitors have a 43% chance of winning and we will take the +0.5 goals handicap option. Breda played two of their last games against Emmen. The two teams first locked horns a week ago and it was a 1-1 draw. Breda were priced around 1.65 to win by the bookmakers at the time of kickoff. It was quite clear for me before, during and after the match that Breda were overvalued on the betting market! Yes, they had 55% ball possession but recorded only one more goal attempt (15-14) than Emmen. However, Emmen recorded many more shots off goal (7-4), Most importantly, Emmen generated 2.04 in expected goals (xG) – Breda managed only 1.23! In the second leg Breda took a 3-0 win away from home but the final score is hugely misleading! Emmen had many more goal attempts (19-8), shot on goal, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 0.76-0.43! Before the first leg against Emmen, Breda humiliated Roda, winning 5-0 away from home. However, the final score is extremely misleading! Indeed, Roda had 60% ball possession and even recorded many more attacks - 91-65 to be precise. Both teams had 10 goal attempts and Breda generated only moderately more in xG 1.88-1.22 to be precise. This result and the 2nd leg win over Emmen probably affect the odds in today's game way too much! Despite facing opponents of totally different caliber than Breda, Excelsior have lost only two of their last seven games! In their last game they completely destroyed Den Haag 7-1 at home, generating clearly over 3.00 in xG. The visitors' number was 0.65. It was a Relegation Semifinal 2md leg and Excelsior were priced around 2.00 to win by the bookies. In the first leg Excelsior had some luck on their side though but won 2-1 despite being far from their best level. According to a well-known source, Transfermarkt.com Excelsior are the much bigger team here. Their squad is valued at around 22 million euros. The hosts' players have an estimated total market value of only about 11 million.

NAC Breda VS Excelsior SBV

北京时间周三凌晨，南航布雷达将在Rat Verlegh体育场迎来英甲降级半决赛首回合的交锋。然而，实际上布雷达本赛季在乙级联赛踢球，但他们希望下赛季能升到一级联赛。当然，赌注是极高的，我预计这是一场相对守势的比赛，甚至可能是谨慎的比赛。然而，一个早期的目标可能会改变这个“脚本”。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是47.50%。按照欧洲标准，荷兰甲级联赛和荷兰甲级联赛的水平都高于平均水平。我想强调的是，Eredivisie和Eerste Divisie在班级上的差异是巨大的!Excelsior在常规赛结束后以29分排名第16位。然而，就期望分数(xPTS)而言，他们并不走运。他们应该得到34或35分。他们把球打了整整50次。这比乌得勒支在常规赛结束后排名第七还要好!对阵一支联赛球队，他们技术娴熟、速度很快的前锋和中场应该能够创造出很多得分机会——尤其是在主场的第二回合!然而，他们的防守对于最高级别的球员来说太不稳定了——尽管他们的结构还不错。他们的后卫在常规赛中犯了太多愚蠢的错误，并且经常试图超出他们的真实技术水平——例如在自己的球门附近传球太危险。然而，我不相信Excelsior的球员会害怕他们在这里面对的二线进攻。Excelsior总共丢了73个球，但例如第14名的Heracles丢了更多的球。

从预期的阵容来看，很明显Excelsior是一支更好的球队——但只是有很大的差距。然而，主场优势需要给予足够的重视。最大的博彩公司——接受客户最大的赌注——又犯了一个错误——他们认为东道主的胜算不大。客队有43%的获胜机会，我们将采取+0.5个进球障碍选项。布雷达在最后两场比赛中对阵埃门。两队在一周前第一次交锋，打成1-1平。在开球时，博彩公司将布雷达的胜率定在1.65左右。在比赛之前，比赛期间和比赛之后，我都很清楚布雷达在博彩市场上被高估了!是的，他们有55%的控球率，但只比埃门多一次射门(15-14次)。然而，埃门的射门次数更多(7-4)，最重要的是，埃门的预期进球(xG)为2.04，而布雷达只有1.23!在第二回合，布雷达在客场3:0取胜，但最后的比分是非常误导人的!埃门有更多的进球尝试(19胜8负)、射正、射偏、进攻和危险进攻。xG值为0.76-0.43!在首回合对阵埃门之前，布雷达在客场5-0击败罗达。然而，最终的分数是极具误导性的!事实上，罗达有60%的控球率，甚至有更多的进攻记录——准确地说是91比65。两支球队都有10次进球尝试，准确地说，布雷达在xG 1.88-1.22的比赛中只创造了稍微多一些的进球。这个结果和第二回合对埃门的胜利可能对今天比赛的赔率影响太大了!尽管面对的对手与布雷达的实力完全不同，但Excelsior在过去七场比赛中只输了两场!在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以7比1彻底击败了海牙，在xG上的得分明显超过3.00。访客人数为0.65。这是一场保级半决赛的第20回合，博彩公司对Excelsior的胜率定在2英镑左右。在第一回合的比赛中，Excelsior有一些运气，尽管他们远未达到最佳水平，但还是以2-1获胜。根据一个知名的消息来源，Transfermarkt.com Excelsior是这里更大的团队。这支球队的身价约为2200万欧元。据估计，东道主球员的总市值只有1100万美元左右。