Fortuna Dusseldorf VS VfL Bochum

Dusseldorf and Bochum lock horns in this Bundesliga Relegation Final 2nd leg clash at Merkur Spiel-Arena. Dusseldof have played in the 2.Bundesliga which is the best second- tier in the world – after the English Championship. Bochum, on the other hand, played in the Bundesliga. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a very interesting game here. .Most importantly, we have yet another awesome betting opportunity of extending the stunning hot streak of 9/11 last picks won. The stakes are gigantic here – the winner (on aggregate) will play in the Bundesliga next season. Dusseldorf won the 1st leg 3-0 which was a surprise as Bochum were priced around 2.20 to win by the bookies. Yes, they were a disappointment, there is no denying this. However, let's not forget that they played well below their normal level. Dusseldorf, on the other hand, played one of the best games this season! I will not overreact to this result too much.. Yes, based on the events in the pitch in this match alone Dusseldorf would be solid favourites at home if this was a normal game – or if the final score of the 1st leg was a draw -  but as the aggregate (score) is 3-0 things change quite a bit.. Indeed, Dusseldorf can lose this game by a margin of two goals and still be promoted to the Bundesliga!  I expect them to focus on protecting the lead. Yes, Bochum will, of course, have to be very aggressive here and a quick goal or two for the hosts could "kill" their visitors' confidence. I want to remind my fans We have had many similar situations - a clear win for one team in the first leg - in the UEFA Europa League this season. For example, Milan beat Rennes 3-0 in the first leg, dominating the game! However, Rennes won the 2nd leg 3-2. Marseille crushed Villarreal 4-0 at home but Villarreal easily won the 2nd leg! Furthermore, Roma crushed Brighton 4-0 in the 1st leg but Brighton defeated them in the 2nd leg.. Furthermore, I do not believe Bochum have given up yet – despite the very difficult situation.. Yes, Dusseldorf generated more than Bochum in expected goals (xG) – 2.13-1.45 to be precise. However, Bochum had 55% ball possession and recorded many more total passes, completed passes, and attacks and dangerous attacks! Let's also not forget that they are clearly the bigger team in terms of player' estimated total market value here – according to well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Indeed, their squad is valued at around 63 million euros. The Dusseldorf players are valued at a total of some 38 million.

I want to mention that Dusseldorf were not the best team in the 2. Bundesliga this season. Indeed, they finished in 3rd place – behind St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel. Yes, they scored an impressive 72 goals but their number of xG was lower. Bochum finished in 16th place in Bundesliga with 33 points. This is not a very bad number of points – Union Berlin, who even played in the Champions League this season, also grabbed 33 points. Bochum's number of expected points (xPTS) was 40.77. They scored 42 goals and conceded 74 goals. Yes, their defenders were not skilled enough to do that well in the Bundesliga but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was still "only" 67.76. Furthermore, their number of xG was 53.89. Once again I want to emphasize that the difference between the Bundesliga and 2. Bundesliga is substantial! In this match the probability estimation is a bit harder to make than in a "normal" game but I in my expert opinion -  taking the 3-0 on aggregate into account -  this  is more or less a coin toss – without an actual favourite. The bookies have made a mistake – offering odds of around 2.20 on the home win. The professional bettors' choice is the Bochum +0.5 goals handicap option! Dusseldorf have won three of their last five games – Bochum have taken two wins in their most recent five matches. Before beating Bochum Dusseldorf beat Magdeburg 3-2 at home as clear favourites – priced around 1.85 to win on the betting market. Yes, they generated more than the visitors in xG but Magdeburg recorded more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this Dusseldorf were strong on the road against Holstein Kiel, no denying that. It was a 1-1 draw in the end though. Bochum were very nervous on the pitch and made too many defensive mistakes in the last round of Bundesliga – losing 1-4 on the road as solid underdogs. However, the final score is still misleading as the visitors had 52% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (26), shots off goal (18-13), total passes, completed passes, attacks (141-74) and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 3.76-2.31. Before this Bochum lost to Bayer Leverkusen, the new champions of Germany, 0-5 at home as very clear underdogs according to the bookies. Let's not forget that Leverkusen did not lose any games in the Bundesliga this season! Bochum's F. Passlack was sent off already in the 15th minute which basically destroyed their chances. The score was still 0-0 at that point. I will not give this game too much emphasis..

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杜塞尔多夫VS波鸿

德甲保级决赛第二回合，杜塞尔多夫和波鸿将在梅尔库尔斯皮尔竞技场交锋。杜塞尔多夫曾在2场比赛中出场。德甲是世界上最好的二级联赛，仅次于英冠。另一方面，波鸿在德甲踢球。足球爱好者和我们认真的投注者-考虑到长期利润-可以期待一场非常有趣的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个令人敬畏的投注机会，可以延续9/11最后一次获胜的惊人连胜纪录。这里的赌注是巨大的-获胜者(总比分)将在下赛季参加德甲联赛。杜塞尔多夫在第一回合以3比0获胜，这是一个惊喜，因为博彩公司对波鸿的胜率定价在2.20左右。是的，他们令人失望，这是不可否认的。然而，我们不要忘记他们的表现远远低于他们的正常水平。另一方面，杜塞尔多夫在本赛季打出了最好的比赛之一!我不会对这个结果反应过度。是的，从本场比赛的情况来看，如果这是一场普通的比赛，或者如果第一回合的比分是平局，杜塞尔多夫将是主场最受欢迎的球队，但由于总比分是3-0，情况就不一样了。的确，杜塞尔多夫可以以两球的差距输掉这场比赛，仍然可以升入德甲!我希望他们能专心保护线索。是的，波鸿在这里当然会非常有侵略性，东道主的一两个快速进球可能会“扼杀”客队的信心。我想提醒我的球迷，在本赛季的欧联杯中，我们有很多类似的情况——一支球队在首回合大胜。例如，米兰在首回合3-0击败雷恩，统治了比赛!然而，雷恩以3-2赢得了第二回合。马赛主场4-0大胜比利亚雷亚尔，但比利亚雷亚尔轻松赢得第二回合!此外，罗马在首回合4-0击败布莱顿，但布莱顿在第二回合击败了他们。此外，我不相信波鸿已经放弃了——尽管情况非常困难。是的，杜塞尔多夫的预期进球数比波鸿多——准确地说是2.13-1.45。然而，波鸿拥有55%的控球率，并且记录了更多的总传球，完成传球，攻击和危险攻击!我们也不要忘记，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员的估计总市值来看，他们显然是更大的球队。事实上，他们的球队价值约为6300万欧元。杜塞尔多夫球员的总身价约为3800万欧元。

我想说的是，杜塞尔多夫不是最好的球队。本赛季德甲联赛。事实上，他们获得了第三名，落后于圣保利和荷尔斯泰因基尔。是的，他们打进了令人印象深刻的72球，但他们的进球数量更少。波鸿以33分排名德甲第16位。这并不是一个非常糟糕的分数——本赛季甚至参加了欧冠联赛的柏林联盟也得到了33分。波鸿的预期点数(xPTS)为40.77。他们进了42球，丢了74球。是的，他们的后卫技术并不足以在德甲表现出色，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)仍然“只有”67.76。xG数为53.89个。我想再一次强调一下德甲和乙级联赛的区别。德甲是重要的!在这场比赛中，概率估计比在“正常”比赛中更难，但在我的专家意见中-考虑到总比分为3比0 -这或多或少是一种抛硬币的方式-没有真正的最爱。博彩公司犯了一个错误——在主场获胜的赔率约为2.20。专业投注者的选择是波鸿+0.5球障碍选项!杜塞尔多夫在最近的五场比赛中取得了三场胜利，波鸿在最近的五场比赛中取得了两场胜利。在击败波鸿之前，杜塞尔多夫主场3-2击败马格德堡成为夺冠热门，在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.85。是的，他们在上一季创造的进球比客队多，但马格德堡的射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。在此之前，杜塞尔多夫在对阵荷尔斯泰因基尔的路上表现强劲，这是不可否认的。不过最后还是以1比1战平。波鸿在球场上非常紧张，在上一轮的德甲联赛中防守失误太多，以1-4的比分输掉了比赛。然而，最终的比分仍然具有误导性，因为客队拥有52%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(26次)，射门次数(18-13次)，总传球次数，完成传球次数，攻击次数(141-74次)和单次

危险的攻击。xG值为3.76 ~ 2.31。在此之前，波鸿在主场0-5输给了德国新冠军勒沃库森，根据博彩公司的数据，他们显然处于劣势。让我们不要忘记勒沃库森本赛季在德甲没有输过一场比赛!波鸿的帕斯拉克在第15分钟就被红牌罚下，这基本上破坏了他们的机会。那时比分还是0-0。我不会给这个游戏太多的强调。