IFK Norrkoping FK VS IFK Värnamo

Norrköping host IFK Värnamo lock for this Swedish Allsvenskan round 11 battle at Platinumcars Arena very early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Swedish football. The level of this league is of pretty average level by European standards. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of slightly somewhat average quality by this league's standards here. Most importantly, we have a very lucrative betting opportunity here! We have won five of the last seven picks betting on this league! Both teams have been a disappointment this season. However, I see the hosts having much more potential for improvement than the visitors– in all areas of the game. Last season Värnamo took 5th place but were lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). Indeed, they took 45 points but their number of xPTS was only 41.21. Many of their players played above their normal level and this has not been the case anymore this season.

They are a pretty small team for this level in terms of overall financial resources, fan-base, historical success and players' estimated total market value. Indeed, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, their squad is valued at only around seven million euros. This is, in my expert opinion, still a little too high. The Norrkoping squad, on the other hand, has an estimated market value of some 14 million which is too low! Norrköping are in 14th place with 11 points to their account. Värnamo, on the other hand, are in 13th place and they ,too, have grabbed 11 points. Norrköping's number of xPTS is 14.21 – the visitors would have deserved around 10 points. Both teams' defences have been surprisingly leaky so far. Norrkoping have allowed even more goals than Värnamo but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is still a little lower than of the visitors. The Värnamo offense has been lame - lacking especially speed and creativity. They have scored only 10 goals – the hosts, on the other hand, have netted the ball 14 times in this league but their number of expected goals (xG) is bigger - 16.03 to be precise. Norrkoping have 10 points to their account but have, in all honesty, been erratic.. On a good day they can be great  but have also been very disappointing in some games.. They showed their potential beating Elfsborg 4-2 at home in round 5 - coming back from 0-2 in the second half - creating an amazing atmosphere at the stadium! Let's remember that Elfsborg were favourites in this game and did, in fact, finish 2nd last season..

The bookies, of course, see the hosts as favourites here – offering them odds of around 2.00 to take all three points. Taking their potential and substantial home advantage into account I see them as bigger favourites than the bookies do! Based on my strongly data-based expert analysis they have a 54.50% chance to win this game. In their last match they played quite well despite losing to Brommapojkarna 1-2 on the road as big underdogs. Indeed, they were priced close to 4.00 to win by the bookies but had 58% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (10-4), shots on target, shots off goal (6-1), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. The expected goals numbers were 0.44-0.93. Before this they took a point from Kalmar on the road though a 1-1 draw and were the better team on the pitch! They had 56% ball possession and recorded many more attacks and dangerous attacks as well as xG – 0.53-1.34. They were priced around 3.20 to win on the betting market. This was yet another example of them being undervalued by the bookies! Värnamo were lame in their last game – losing to Kalmar 0-2 at home as solid favourites – priced around 2.10 to win at the time of kick off. The xG numbers were 0.57-1.04.

IFK Norrkoping FK VS IFK Värnamo

北京时间周二凌晨，Norrköping东道主IFK Värnamo锁定了这场瑞典Allsvenskan的第11轮比赛。这是瑞典足球的第一梯队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是相当平均的。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场以联赛的标准来看稍微有些平均的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!我们在过去的七次选秀中赢了五次!这两支球队本赛季的表现都令人失望。然而，我认为主队在比赛的各个方面都比客队有更大的改进潜力。上个赛季Värnamo排名第五，但在预期积分(xPTS)方面很幸运。虽然拿到了45分，但他们的得分只有41.21分。很多球员的表现都超出了他们的正常水平，而这个赛季已经不再是这样了。

从整体财务资源、粉丝基础、历史成就和球员估计的总市场价值来看，他们是一支相当小的团队。事实上，根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，他们的球队价值仅为700万欧元左右。以我的专业意见，这还是有点太高了。另一方面，据估计，诺雪平队的市场价值约为1400万欧元，这实在太低了!Norrköping队以11分排名第14。另一方面，Värnamo排在第13位，他们也获得了11分。Norrköping的xPTS数是14.21 -客队应该得到大约10分。到目前为止，两队的防守都出人意料地漏洞百出。诺雪平的失球比Värnamo多，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)仍然比客队少一些。Värnamo的进攻很差劲，尤其缺乏速度和创造力。他们只进了10球——另一方面，东道主在联赛中有14次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)更大——准确地说是16.03球。诺雪平队目前有10分，但说实话，他们表现不稳定。在好的时候，他们可能会很棒，但在一些比赛中也会让人失望。他们在第5轮主场4-2击败了埃尔夫斯堡，展示了他们的潜力——下半场0-2逆转——在球场上创造了令人惊叹的气氛!让我们记住，埃尔夫斯堡在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的，事实上，上赛季他们获得了第二名。

当然，博彩公司认为东道主在这里是最受欢迎的——他们提供了大约2.00的赔率来获得所有三分。考虑到他们的潜力和巨大的主场优势，我认为他们比博彩公司更受欢迎!根据我基于数据的专家分析，他们有54.50%的机会赢得这场比赛。在上一场比赛中，他们打得相当不错，尽管他们在客场1-2输给了布罗马波伊卡纳队。事实上，博彩公司对他们的胜率估计接近4.00，但他们的控球率为58%，进球次数(10胜4负)、射正、射偏(6胜1负)、角球、进攻和危险进攻都更多。预期进球数为0.44-0.93。在此之前，他们在客场1-1战平，从卡尔玛那里拿了一分，在球场上他们是更好的球队!他们有56%的控球率，记录了更多的进攻和危险进攻，xG - 0.53-1.34。在博彩市场上，他们的价格约为3.20英镑。这是他们被博彩公司低估的又一个例子!Värnamo在上一场比赛中表现不佳——在主场0-2输给卡尔玛，虽然他们是最受欢迎的球队——开球时的胜率在2.10左右。xG值为0.57 ~ 1.04。