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外籍分析师
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+90% winning rate in this league!

2024-05-20

比赛分析

解读理由

MOLDE - SARPSBORG

Molde, who is one of the best teams in the league, is one more year fighting with Bodo/Glimt for the title. With 25.8MM Euros value, they have the second best squad in the league (after Bodo/Glimt). Have really good players such as Emil Breivik, one of the best midfielders in the league, as well as midfielder Magnus Eikrem who is in great form with really good performances recently, including 4 goals in their last 3 games.

Molde’s weak point is probably their attack, as dont have any reliable scorer, but have a lot of quality in the midfield with many players who I expect them to score several goals this season, such as Eriksen mentioned above. Molde have scored 18 goals in 9 games so far - the second best attack after Bodo/Glimt.

At home at the Aker Station will be very strong and difficult to beat, as they have been in the last seasons.

On the other hand, Sarpsborg is a mid-table team. However, they are in terrible form with three consecutive defeats and 15 goals conceded (!!!), including an awful defeat last weekend 1:7 at home against HamKam.

Their defense has been a disaster in the recent games, with crazy mistakes and conceding many chances. Furthermore, they are under big pressure already as are one above the bottom in the Eliteserien. Their main problem has been the large amount of injuries they have had recently, and also for this fixture will be without several players.

They made a lot of transfers and changes in the transfer market, and the new arrivals have not been at the level expected. They lost their two main scorers last season - Opseth and Maigaard, and the replacements arrived have not been at the same level yet. Saprsborg’ topscorer this season so far is a striker Niklas Sandberg, who was reserve last season scoring just 2 goals. This is a good signal of the current squad level: an average and weak player who was reserve last season is being one of the best players in this campaign.

Sarpsborg are known for being an inconsistent team and anything is possible with them, but I expect them to be dominated and struggle in this fixture. Furthermore, they have to deal with the big and natural pitch from Malmo, as they are accustomed to play in their stadium which has artificial turf.

I don’t see Sarpsborg able to improve their defense in this fixture, against one of the most offensive and best teams in the league and also as visitors. A goal to nil would be almost a miracle imo, seeing their current performances in defense and Malmo’s strength in attack. Furthermore, both teams already played in the Cup (1 ⁄ 8 finals) just 10 days ago, where Molde won 4:2.

It’s true that Molde was helped by Sarsborg’s red card at 65’ when they were 1:2 up, but I believe they could have won that game even without the red card. Last season they also beat Sarpsborg 1:3 and 5:1, whilst in the Cup they also won 3:1 again.

I expect an easy game for Molde, winning by a big margin if they score an early goal.

KRISTIANSUND - BRANN

Huge quality difference.

Kristiansund, a newly promoted team from the OBOS-ligaen has the worst squad in the league. They made very few transfers, majority loans by other teams. I’m impressed with Aberdeen’ loan striker Pape Gueye, who is indeed their best player in the squad and made some really good performances recently, scoring three goals so far and two of them against leaders and best team in the league Bodo/Glimt.

Kristiansund is a team who will struggle a lot this season to avoid relegation. Made a great start of the season picking up two victories and one draw in the first 4 rounds, but now are showing their real level, being outplayed and suffering defeats in the league and also in the Cup. In the last 4 games lost three and drew against HamKam (1:1) being totally outplated conceding more than double (1.37) of expected goals generated (0.60)

They were totally outplayed and easily beaten by similar teams to Brann: 2:4 against Bodo/Glimt and 2:0 against Molde. Against Lillestrom in the first round they won 2:3 but was totally unfair, as they were totally outplayed and deserved to lose.

On the other hand, Brann made an amazing campaign last season, finishing 2nd after being a newly promoted team in the league. Their strong point was the defense, which was the second best in the league, even with less conceded as Champions Bodo/Glimt. Their defensive line was the key and Brann did it well maintaining them for this new season.

They made a good start of this campaign, with only 1 defeat and 6 victories in 9 games. The defeat came against Fredrikstad (0:2) in a very unlucky game where they deserved to win as they generated much more chances and almost double of expected goals, having 79% possession. Fredrikstad scored 2 goals from 3 shots on target and just 21% possession.

Brann has also been a very solid team in defense as expected, conceding just 6 goals in 9 rounds: 2 of them were against Fredrikstad and another two goals in the first round against Tromso, where they won 2:4. So if we remove those two games from the equation, we have only 2 goals conceded in 7 rounds.

Furthermore, in some games they also were unlucky, so I’d say that they even deserve more points as they have.

I see them this season able to fight with Bodo/Glimt for the title, as they have a better squad than last season and made an impressive start of the campaign.

There’s a huge difference here. Kristiansund is the worst team in the league and are in poor form, whilst Brann is among the best teams in the league and in great form recently. This should be a game dominated by Brann and given the quality difference, with an away victory.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Molde - sarpsborg

莫尔德是联盟中最好的球队之一,他们将与博多/格里姆特争夺冠军。他们拥有2580万欧元的价值,在联赛中排名第二(仅次于博多/格里姆特)。拥有像埃米尔·布雷维克这样的优秀球员,他是联赛中最好的中场之一,还有中场马格努斯·艾克雷姆,他最近表现非常好,最近3场比赛打进4球。

莫尔德的弱点可能是他们的进攻,因为没有任何可靠的得分王,但在中场有很多有质量的球员,我预计他们本赛季会进几个球,比如上面提到的埃里克森。到目前为止,莫尔德在9场比赛中打进18球,这是仅次于博多/格里姆特的第二好的进攻。

主场的阿克站将非常强大,很难被击败,就像他们在过去的几个赛季一样。

另一方面,萨尔普斯堡是一支中游球队。然而,他们的状态很糟糕,连续三场失利,丢了15个球(!!!),包括上周末主场1:7惨败哈姆卡姆。

他们的防守在最近几场比赛中简直是一场灾难,有很多疯狂的失误,也丢了很多机会。此外,他们已经承受着巨大的压力,就像精英队伍中垫底以上的一个人一样。他们的主要问题是他们最近受到了大量的伤病,而且这场比赛将会有几名球员缺席。

他们在转会市场上做了很多的转会和改变,但是新援没有达到预期的水平。上赛季他们失去了两名主要的得分手——奥普赛斯和梅加德,而替补到来的球员还没有达到同样的水平。到目前为止,萨普斯堡本赛季的最佳射手是前锋尼古拉斯·桑德伯格,他上赛季只打入了2球。这是目前球队水平的一个很好的信号:上赛季预备队的一个普通的弱球员在这个赛季成为了最好的球员之一。

萨普斯堡是一支以不稳定而闻名的球队,他们什么都有可能,但我希望他们在这场比赛中被控制和挣扎。此外,他们还必须适应马尔默的大而自然的球场,因为他们已经习惯了在自己的人造草皮球场比赛。

我不认为萨尔普斯堡能够在这场比赛中提高他们的防守,面对的是联盟中最具攻击性和最好的球队之一,而且还是客队。在我看来,一个0比1的进球几乎是一个奇迹,看看他们目前的防守表现和马尔默的进攻实力。此外,两支球队在10天前刚刚参加了杯赛(1 / 8决赛),莫尔德以4:2获胜。

莫尔德确实在第65分钟萨斯堡1:2领先的时候得到了红牌的帮助,但我相信即使没有那张红牌,他们也能赢得那场比赛。上赛季他们也以1:3和5:1击败了萨尔普斯堡,而在杯赛中他们也再次以3:1获胜。

我希望莫尔德能轻松拿下一场比赛,如果他们早早进球,就能以大比分取胜。

克里斯蒂安桑德-布兰

巨大的质量差异。

新升班马球队克里斯蒂安松的阵容是联赛中最差的。他们很少进行转会,大部分都是被其他球队租借。我对阿伯丁租借来的前锋佩佩·盖耶印象深刻,他确实是阿伯丁队中最好的球员,最近的表现也非常出色,到目前为止打进了3球,其中2球是对阵领头羊和联赛最佳球队博多/格里姆特的。

克里斯蒂安松是一支本赛季将为保级而努力的球队。本赛季开局不错,前四轮取得2胜1平,但现在他们展现出了真正的水平,在联赛和杯赛中都被击败和遭遇失败。在最近的4场比赛中,与汉姆卡姆(1:1)的比赛中3负1平,完全处于劣势,丢球数(1.37)是预期进球数(0.60)的两倍多。

他们完全被与Brann相似的球队打败了:2:4对阵Bodo/Glimt, 2:0对阵Molde。在第一轮对阵利勒斯特罗姆的比赛中,他们以2:3获胜,但这是完全不公平的,因为他们完全被击败了,输掉比赛是罪有应得。

另一方面,布兰恩上个赛季取得了惊人的成绩,在联赛中作为一支新提升的球队获得了第二名。他们的强项是防守,这是联盟第二好的防守,即使在冠军博多/格里姆特时丢球较少。他们的后防线是关键,布兰恩在新赛季的防守上做得很好。

他们取得了良好的开局,在9场比赛中只有1负6胜。输给腓特烈斯塔德(0:2)是一场非常不幸的比赛,他们理应获胜,因为他们创造了更多的机会和进球

是预期进球的两倍,控球率79%。弗雷德里克斯塔德3次射正打进2球,只有21%的控球率。

不出所料,布兰恩的防守也非常稳固,在9轮比赛中只丢了6个球:其中2个是在对阵弗雷德里克斯塔德的比赛中丢的,另外2个是在首轮对阵特罗姆瑟的比赛中丢的,他们以2:4取胜。所以如果我们把这两场比赛从等式中去掉,我们在7轮比赛中只丢了2个球。

此外,在一些比赛中,他们也很不走运,所以我认为他们应该得到更多的分数。

我认为他们本赛季有能力和博多/格里姆特一起争夺冠军,因为他们的阵容比上赛季更好,而且赛季开局令人印象深刻。

这里有很大的不同。克里斯蒂安松是联赛中表现最差的球队,而布兰恩是联赛中表现最好的球队之一,最近状态很好。这应该是一场由布兰恩主导的比赛,考虑到球队的实力差异,我们将在客场取得胜利。

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