Arsenal VS Everton

Arsenal welcome Everton for this English Premier League round 38 battle at Emirates Stadium in London late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the last round of the best league in the world as a whole! The fact that no English team made it to the UEFA Champions League – or Europa League - final this season does not change this fact. Arsenal are a top-5 team in the word but their mental vulnerability was exposed when they lost to Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals some weeks ago as solid favourites to qualify on the betting market. The aggregate was 3-2 to the Germans who are playing mch worse season than usual. Before the 2nd leg in Munich Arsenal were very disappointing - losing to Aston Villa 0-2 at home – priced around 1.25 to win on the betting market! We can say that in a way their season was "destroyed" in four days.. The key question here is, are Arsenal worth betting on – especially with a huge handicap against a gutsy opponent in a game where all that is needed is a win.. The answer is no, they are not – even taking into account that Everton might be in "holiday mode" already.. However, they have not shown any such signs recently and their manager S. Dyche is a demanding guy.. Odds of around 1.75 are available on the Everton +2.5 goals handicap and we will eagerly take it. Odds close to 1.80 are widely available. The chance of us winning for the 11th time in a row in this league is 61-63%. Even a win would not bring Arsenal the championship if Man City defeat West Ham.. City have taken two more points than Arsenal who have 86 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is "only" 77.03. They have scored 89 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is only 79.98. "The Gunners" have conceded only 28 goals and their defence has been solid. Even so, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is much bigger - 33.45.

Arsenal have won five of their last eight games. In their last game they beat Man United 1-0 away from home but failed to impress me as a whole. They were forced to defend a lot but did so in an organized way. Arsenal were priced around 1.30-1.35 to win on the betting market – yet another example of them being overrated by the bookies.. Yes, they won but the "joke of the season" (massively failing to meet expectations) ManU had 54% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, total passes, completed passes and dangerous attacks – 58-39! Everton have been a little disappointing this season and are in 15th place. They have taken 40 points but their number of xPTS is bigger. Let's remember that eight points were deducted from them by a federation! Everton have scored 39 goals but their number of xG is massively bigger -  62.22! They have allowed 49 goals but their number of xGA is higher though. 

Let's remember that Arsenal have had a long gruelling season - many demanding games in the Champions League and other cups.. Yes, of course they need to win this game and will push hard from the kickoff. Everton have a pretty good defence though and have some physically strong defenders. The skilled but not always so strong Arsenal strikers and midfielders will not break the defence easily - if Everton are even 90% motivated here.. However, Arsenal will surely avoid injuries – and probably wasting energy when/ if they lead by a margin of two goals. Similarly to many other top-teams they are great at "killing the game" ie. lowering the tempo and just keeping the ball.. Let's also remember that many of Arsenal's players will play in the EURO 2024 in Germany next summer.. It is a massive tournament.. If City take a quick lead by more than one goal, Arsenal would surely be more or less "depressed" and this could affect the players very negatively – as well as drop the atmosphere at the stadium significantly.. The current odds of around 1.15 on the home win are way too low – they have a 76-77% chance to win. I want to emphasize that Everton have been in fine form recently and are a team of reliable and hard-fighting guys. They have won four of their last five games! In round 34 they beat Liverpool at home – priced around 8.00-9.00 to win on the betting market! This was just another example of the bookies disrespecting Everton. Let's not forget that Liverpool were very motivated - in a serious fight for the trophy at that time – priced around 5.50 by the bookies to win the league. In their last game Everton beat Sheffield at home 1-0 despite being far from their best. The xG numbers were 2.21-0.55. Before this Everton played a 1-1 draw in Luton but generated more in xG – 1.77-0.78 to be precise. Luton were extremely motivated as they were - and technically still are - fighting to avoid relegation. Before this they were – weirdly priced around 3.00 by the bookies at home to beat Brentford and did so 1-0 after generating a little more in xG than the visitors.

阿森纳VS埃弗顿

北京时间周日晚，阿森纳将在伦敦酋长球场迎来英超第38轮埃弗顿之战。这是世界上最好的联赛的最后一轮!尽管本赛季没有一支英格兰球队进入欧冠或欧联杯决赛，但这并不能改变这一事实。阿森纳是一支世界排名前五的球队，但他们的心理弱点在几周前的欧冠四分之一决赛中输给了拜仁慕尼黑，在博彩市场上被认为是晋级的热门球队。总比分是3比2，德国人本赛季的表现比平时差得多。在与慕尼黑的第二回合比赛之前，阿森纳非常令人失望——主场0-2输给了阿斯顿维拉——在博彩市场上的胜率大约是1.25 !我们可以说，在某种程度上，他们的赛季在四天内被“摧毁”了。这里的关键问题是，阿森纳值得下注吗?尤其是在面对一个勇敢的对手的巨大不利条件下，在一场只需要胜利的比赛中。答案是否定的，他们没有——甚至考虑到埃弗顿可能已经进入了“假日模式”。然而，他们最近并没有表现出任何这样的迹象，他们的经理S. Dyche是一个要求很高的人。埃弗顿+2.5个进球的赔率大约是1.75，我们将热切地接受它。赔率接近1.80的赔率广泛存在。我们在联盟中11连胜的概率是61-63%。如果曼城击败西汉姆联，即使一场胜利也不能给阿森纳带来冠军。曼城比已经拿到86分的阿森纳多拿了两分。他们的xPTS数量“只有”77.03个。虽然打进89球，但期望进球(xG)只有79.98个。“枪手”只丢了28个球，他们的防守也很稳固。即便如此，他们的预期进球数(xGA)要大得多——33.45。

阿森纳在最近的8场比赛中赢了5场。在上一场比赛中，他们客场1-0击败了曼联，但整体上没有给我留下深刻的印象。他们被迫进行了大量的防守，但以一种有组织的方式进行了防守。在博彩市场上，阿森纳的胜率被定在1.30-1.35左右——这是他们被博彩公司高估的又一个例子。是的，他们赢了，但“本赛季的笑话”(大大低于预期)马努有54%的控球率，记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数和危险进攻——58比39!埃弗顿这个赛季有点令人失望，现在排在第15位。他们拿到了40分，但他们的得分更多。让我们记住，他们被联合会扣掉了8分!埃弗顿已经进了39个球，但是他们的进球数要多得多——62.22个!他们丢了49个球，但是他们的射门次数更多。

让我们记住阿森纳经历了一个漫长而艰苦的赛季——在欧冠和其他杯赛上进行了许多艰苦的比赛。是的，他们当然需要赢得这场比赛，并将从开球开始努力。埃弗顿有很好的防守，并且有一些身体强壮的后卫。阿森纳的前锋和中场技术娴熟，但并不总是那么强壮，他们不会轻易突破防线——如果埃弗顿在这里有90%的积极性。然而，阿森纳肯定会避免伤病——如果他们领先两球，可能会浪费精力。与其他顶级团队一样，他们也很擅长“扼杀游戏”。放慢节奏，控球…让我们也记住，阿森纳的许多球员将参加明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯。这是一场大型锦标赛…如果曼城迅速领先超过一个球，阿森纳肯定会或多或少地“沮丧”，这可能会对球员产生非常负面的影响，同时也会大大降低球场的气氛。目前主场获胜的赔率约为1.15，这太低了，他们有76-77%的机会获胜。我想强调的是，埃弗顿最近的状态很好，是一支可靠的、斗志顽强的球队。他们最近五场比赛赢了四场!在第34轮，他们在主场击败了利物浦，在博彩市场上的胜率约为8.00-9.00 !这只是博彩公司不尊重埃弗顿的又一个例子。让我们不要忘记利物浦是非常积极的-在一个严肃的争夺奖杯的时候-定价约5.50博彩公司赢得联赛。在上一场比赛中，埃弗顿在主场1-0击败了谢菲尔德，尽管他们的状态远未达到最佳状态。xG值为2.21 ~ 0.55。在此之前，埃弗顿1-1战平卢顿，但在xG比赛中产生了更多的进球——准确地说是1.77-0.78。卢顿非常有动力，从技术上讲，他们仍然在战斗