Manchester City VS West Ham United

Manchester City host West Ham for this English Premier League round 38 battle at Etihad Stadium late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the last round of the best league in the world as a whole! The fact that no English team made it to the UEFA Champions League – or Europa League - final this season does not change this fact. Man City lost to Real Madrid in the semifinals – despite being dominant in the 2nd leg – recording much more than the Spaniards in expected goals. They are the best team in the world and won the Champions League last season. They are the best team in the world in terms of pure class, but the margin compared to Arsenal and Real Madrid has shrunk from last season.. The key question is, are they worth betting on – especially with a huge handicap against a decent opponent in a match where all that is needed is a win.. Maybe not.. Football enthusiasts and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match where City probably has a high ball possession and dominated the events on the pitch. Most importantly, my fans and I have an interesting bet to go for the 11th winner in a row in this league! 

 West Ham have been "hot and cold" - erratic would be a precise word – lately and it is certainly possible that they are in complete "holiday mode" and the final score will be 7-1 or something like that. However, this is rather unlikely and the current odds of around 2.20 on the West Ham +2.5 goals handicap are worth a bet. The chance of winning is harder to estimate than usual but in my expert opinion it is around 50-53%. Ederson is out and K. De Bruyne, City's most important player, is questionable. His absence affected City significantly earlier this season and the bookies did not give this factor enough emphasis. .As for the visitors, Philips is out and Aguerd and Mavropanos are questionable. City have had a long and demanding season – once again and still have the FA Cup final against Man United coming up.. Of course City need to win this – as if they do not and Arsenal beat Everton – Arteta's men take the championship! However, Man City will surely avoid serious injuries – and probably wasting energy when/ if they lead by a margin of two or more goals. They are masters of "killing the game" ie. lowering the tempo and just keeping the ball. Let's also remember that many of City's key players will play in the EURO 2024 in Germany next summer.. It is a very big tournament!

City have a fine 88 points to their account but have still declined a bit as a whole from last season. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 78.15. They have scored 93 goals and their number of expected goals (xG) is 86.77. They have conceded 33 goals, five more than Arsenal. City's number of expected goals (xG) is 38.87. I need to mention that Man City have sometimes been surprisingly vulnerable against fast counter attacks this season mainly due to an imbalance in the midfield.. West Ham, can at their best, be pretty good at this! West Ham are playing a decent season and are in 9th place, just five points behind Man United and Newcastle, both have been lame this season but did play in the Champions League group stage this season! West Ham did well in the UEFA Europa League, losing to Bayer Leverkusen in the quarterfinals. Leverkusen have not lost a single game this season and won the German Bundesliga! In the second leg West Ham even had many more goal attempts and shots on goal. They also generated more in xG – 1.77-0.98 to be precise. It was a 1-1 draw in London. In their last game West Ham beat a very motivated team, Luton, 3-1 at home after recording hugely more goal attempts (24-4) and shot on goal (8-1). They generated a whopping 3.87 in xG – Luton managed 0.66. Before this the motivated Chelsea crushed West Ham 5-0 at Stamford Bridge and deserved to win as big favourites – priced around 1.50 to win by the bookies. West Ham, however, recorded a decent 13 goal attempts. The final score flatters Chelsea but West Ham did, in all honesty, defend poorly – no denying that.. Palmer's and Callagher's quick goals killed West Ham's will to fight.. They can definitely do much better on a good day and I believe they want to "torment" City here – at least for as long as they are trailing by a margin of maximum two goals. In round 35 West Ham took a point from Liverpool as big underdogs according to the bookies. Liverpool were still in the fight for the championship at that point... 

If Arsenal take an early lead the pressure piles up on City – they have handled this in the past but not without problems. Arsenal are three points away and have a much better score difference.  A few years ago City got the job done only in the 2nd half and when they finally took the championship back in 2012 - after a very long dry spell -  they needed two injury time goals to beat QPR.. Moreover, they have failed to deal with the pressure many times in the Champions League in big games as huge favourites in recent years – for example against a pretty lowly French team - compared to City -  Lyon some years ago. They have had many of the same players as today failing when the stakes are high.. In 2021 they were clear favourites in the Champions League final but Pep Guardiola "lost" to Tuchel in terms of tactics, City players "froze" on the pitch, and Chelsea deserved to win in the end. City have an about 82-83% chance to win this game – and the current odds of below 1.10 on the home win are simply too low. City have won six of their last nine games - some with ease -  but for example in round 35 a crappy team, Nottingham - despite being gigantic underdogs -  amazingly generated much more in xG – 1.88-0.79 to be precise. They also had many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target and attacks than City!

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曼城VS西汉姆联

北京时间周日晚，英超联赛第38轮，曼城主场迎战西汉姆联。这是世界上最好的联赛的最后一轮!尽管本赛季没有一支英格兰球队进入欧冠或欧联杯决赛，但这并不能改变这一事实。在半决赛中，尽管曼城在第二回合占据统治地位，但还是输给了皇马，他们的预期进球数远远超过了西班牙人。他们是世界上最好的球队，上赛季还赢得了欧冠冠军。就纯粹的水平而言，他们是世界上最好的球队，但与阿森纳和皇马相比，他们的差距比上赛季缩小了。关键的问题是，他们是否值得下注——尤其是在一场只需要一场胜利的比赛中，面对一个像样的对手，他们面临着巨大的不利条件。也许不是…足球爱好者和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场比赛，曼城可能会有很高的控球率，并在球场上占据主导地位。最重要的是，我的球迷和我有一个有趣的赌注，在这个联盟中连续第11个冠军!

西汉姆最近“忽冷忽热”——准确的说法是不稳定——很有可能他们完全进入了“假日模式”，最终比分可能是7比1或类似的情况。然而，这是相当不可能的，目前在西汉姆联2.20 +2.5个进球的赔率是值得一赌的。获胜的几率比平时更难估计，但我的专家意见是在50% -53%左右。埃德森缺阵，曼城最重要的球员德布鲁因也不确定。他的缺席在本赛季早些时候对曼城造成了很大的影响，而博彩公司并没有给予这个因素足够的重视。至于客队，菲利普斯缺阵，阿圭尔和马夫罗帕诺斯也有问题。曼城度过了一个漫长而又艰难的赛季，而且足总杯决赛即将对阵曼联。当然曼城需要赢得这场比赛——如果他们没有赢，阿森纳击败埃弗顿——阿尔特塔的人就会拿到冠军!然而，曼城肯定会避免严重的伤病——如果他们领先两个或更多的球，他们可能会浪费精力。他们是“扼杀游戏”的大师。放慢节奏，保持控球。让我们也记住，曼城的许多关键球员将参加明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯。这是一个非常大的锦标赛!

曼城目前有88分的积分，但整体上还是比上赛季有所下降。他们的期望值(xPTS)只有78.15。他们打入了93个进球，他们的预期进球(xG)为86.77。他们丢了33个球，比阿森纳多5个。曼城的预期进球数(xG)为38.87。我需要提到的是，曼城在本赛季面对快速反击时，有时表现得出奇地脆弱，这主要是由于中场的不平衡。西汉姆联，在他们最好的状态下，会很擅长这个!西汉姆本赛季表现不错，排名第九，仅落后曼联和纽卡斯尔5分，这两家球队本赛季都表现不佳，但本赛季都参加了欧冠小组赛!西汉姆在欧联杯中表现出色，在四分之一决赛中输给勒沃库森。勒沃库森本赛季没有输过一场比赛，还赢得了德甲冠军!在第二回合，西汉姆甚至有更多的进球尝试和射门。他们在xG(1.77-0.98)中也产生了更多。在伦敦，双方1:1战平。在上一场比赛中，西汉姆在主场3-1击败了一支非常有动力的球队卢顿，他们的进球次数(24-4)和射门次数(8-1)都要多得多。他们在比赛中创造了惊人的3.87个进球，而卢顿只创造了0.66个。在此之前，斗志高昂的切尔西在斯坦福桥5-0大胜西汉姆，理应成为夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的胜率约为1.50。而西汉姆联队则有13次进球。最后的比分让切尔西感到高兴，但西汉姆确实防守很差——不可否认……帕尔默和卡拉格的快速进球扼杀了西汉姆的斗志。他们当然可以在一个好的日子里做得更好，我相信他们想在这里“折磨”曼城——至少在他们落后最多两个球的时候。据博彩公司统计，在第35轮比赛中，西汉姆联队从利物浦队那里拿了一分。那时利物浦仍在争夺冠军。

如果阿森纳早早取得领先，压力就会堆积在曼城身上——他们过去处理过这种情况，但也不是没有问题。阿森纳落后3分，他们的比分差距要大得多。几年前，曼城完成了这项工作

在下半场，当他们最终在2012年夺得冠军时——在很长一段时间的干燥期之后——他们需要两个伤停补时进球才能击败QPR。此外，近年来，他们在欧冠大赛中多次以夺冠热门的身份未能应对压力——比如对阵一支实力相当低下的法国队——与几年前的曼城-里昂相比。他们有很多和今天一样的球员在赌注很高的时候失败了……2021年，他们是欧冠决赛的大热门，但瓜迪奥拉在战术上“输给”了图切尔，曼城球员在球场上“僵住了”，切尔西最终应该获胜。曼城有82-83%的机会赢得这场比赛，而目前主场获胜的赔率低于1.10，这实在是太低了。曼城在最近的9场比赛中赢了6场，其中一些很轻松，但比如在第35轮，一支糟糕的球队诺丁汉——尽管是一支巨大的失败者——惊人地产生了更多的xG，准确地说是1.88-0.79。他们的射门次数、射正次数、射偏次数和进攻次数都比曼城多!